bayesRatings

Eagles at Titans

NFL · Sunday, Sep 20 · 12:00 PM CT · Nissan Stadium · Final PHI 24 – TEN 20
← NFL / Sep 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHI0143724
TEN737320
Team box
PHI·TEN
341
total yards
291
252
passing yards
169
89
rushing yards
122
23
first downs
14
11-18
third downs
6-13
2
turnovers
0
36:25
time of possession
23:35
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jalen HurtsPHI26/3726422
Cam WardTEN13/2018300
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Tank BigsbyPHI13331
Tony PollardTEN14640
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
DeVonta SmithPHI101171
Elic AyomanorTEN2690

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEN +7
PHI +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: TEN 7 · PHI 7lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 71%, TEN 29% · Updated Sep 20

Expected margin
PHI by 13.3
Expected score
PHI 27.0 – 13.7 TEN
Expected total
40.6
EaglesThe matchupTitans
−243Our fair odds+243
27.0Expected points13.7
+0.32Power rating−0.94
24.0Points / game10.0
22.0Allowed / game23.0
318Total yards / game195
6.0Yards / play4.0
182Passing yards / game127
1−0Season record0−1
5−5Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · TEN chance
Our model fair70.8%29.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles−24371%————
TENTennessee Titans+24329%————
SpreadPHI by 13.3
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles−13.3our margin————
TENTennessee Titans+13.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 40.6
Over40.6our total————
Under40.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Eagles by 13.3 expected
Philadelphia Eagles by 40 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 38 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 37 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 36 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 35 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 34 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 33 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 32 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 31 points: 4%Philadelphia Eagles by 30 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 29 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 28 points: 7%Philadelphia Eagles by 27 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 26 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 25 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 24 points: 4%Philadelphia Eagles by 23 points: 4%Philadelphia Eagles by 22 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 21 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 20 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 19 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 18 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 17 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 16 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 14 points: 4%Philadelphia Eagles by 13 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 12 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 11 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 10 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 9 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 8 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 7 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 6 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 5 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 4 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 3 points: 5%Philadelphia Eagles by 2 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 1 point: 1%Tie: <1%Tennessee Titans by 1 point: 1%Tennessee Titans by 2 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 3 points: 3%Tennessee Titans by 4 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 5 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 6 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 7 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 8 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 9 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 10 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 11 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 12 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 13 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 14 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 15 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 16 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 17 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 18 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 19 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 20 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 21 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 22 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 23 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 24 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 25 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 26 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 27 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 28 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 29 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 30 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 31 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 32 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 33 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 34 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 35 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 36 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 37 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 38 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 39 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 40 points: <1%
← PHI wins byTEN wins by →
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 3 or more76%
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 7 or more66%
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 10 or more61%
Within 3 points either way12%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

40.6 expected
7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 1%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 33.569%
Total over 40.548%
Total over 47.529%
Total from 34 to 4740%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
PHIJalen Hurts · last 3 games: 54% completions, 160 yds/game, 5 TD, 0 INTstarted
TENCam Ward · last 3 games: 57% completions, 148 yds/game, 3 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·TEN
Sep 13 vs WSH
last game
Sep 13 vs NYJ
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
PHI·TEN
+0.32
rating (0 = average)
−0.94
24.0
points / game
10.0
22.0
points allowed / game
23.0
1−0
season record
0−1
1−0
home record
0−1
0−0
away record
0−0
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
2−8
318
total yards / game
195
6.0
yards / play
4.0
182
passing yards / game
127
136
rushing yards / game
68
10.0
first downs / game
11.0
0.0
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

PHI · TEN · 2 days
Philadelphia EaglesTennessee Titans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · TEN 0−1
Dec 4, 2022at PHIPHI 35 − 10

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Sep 13vs WSH24 − 22W
Jan 11vs SF19 − 23L
Jan 4vs WSH17 − 24L
Dec 28, 2025at BUF13 − 12W
Dec 20, 2025at WSH29 − 18W
Dec 14, 2025vs LV31 − 0W
Dec 8, 2025at LAC19 − 22L
Nov 28, 2025vs CHI15 − 24L
Nov 23, 2025at DAL21 − 24L
Nov 16, 2025vs DET16 − 9W

TEN · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Sep 13vs NYJ10 − 23L
Jan 4at JAX7 − 41L
Dec 28, 2025vs NO26 − 34L
Dec 21, 2025vs KC26 − 9W
Dec 14, 2025at SF24 − 37L
Dec 7, 2025at CLE31 − 29W
Nov 30, 2025vs JAX3 − 25L
Nov 23, 2025vs SEA24 − 30L
Nov 16, 2025vs HOU13 − 16L
Nov 2, 2025vs LAC20 − 27L