bayesRatings

Buccaneers at Panthers

NFL · Sunday, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CT · Bank of America Stadium · Final TB 43 – CAR 13
← NFL / Oct 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TB7263743
CAR060713
Team box
TB·CAR
322
total yards
266
64
passing yards
178
258
rushing yards
88
21
first downs
15
7-12
third downs
6-11
0
turnovers
4
35:57
time of possession
24:03
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Baker MayfieldTB7/116410
Bryce YoungCAR14/2716312
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Bucky IrvingTB241062
Chuba HubbardCAR7330
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Tez JohnsonTB2331
Darren WallerCAR1501

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CAR +37
TB +37
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CAR 0 · TB 37lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 37%, CAR 63% · Updated Oct 25

Expected margin
CAR by 3.1
Expected score
CAR 24.3 – 21.2 TB
Expected total
45.5
BuccaneersThe matchupPanthers
+169Our fair odds−169
21.2Expected points24.3
−0.32Power rating−0.03
19.8Points / game29.2
23.0Allowed / game24.6
293Total yards / game404
4.7Yards / play6.0
165Passing yards / game296
1−5Season record3−2
2−8Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · CAR chance
Our model fair37.1%62.9%
Kalshi41.7%61.7%
Polymarket US41.9%61.7%
ProphetX41.8%60.8%
Novig41.5%59.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:00 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 11:59 AM CTProphetXpre-game · 11:59 AM CTNovigpre-game · 11:58 AM CT
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers+16937%+14041.7%+13941.9%+13941.8%+14141.5%
CARCarolina Panthers−16963%−16161.7%−16161.7%−15560.8%−14459.0%
SpreadCAR by 3.1
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers+3.1our margin+2.5 +10947.7%+2.5 +10548.7%+2.5 +11047.6%+2.5 +11546.5%
CARCarolina Panthers−3.1our margin−2.5 −13156.7%−2.5 −12355.2%−2.5 −12355.3%−2.5 −11754.0%
Totalwe expect 45.5
Over45.5our totalo44.5 −11653.7%o44.5 −11453.2%o44.5 −11152.7%o44.5 −10651.5%
Under45.5our totalu44.5 −10350.7%u44.5 −10350.7%u44.5 −10050.0%u44.5 +10449.0%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Carolina Panthers by 3.1 expected
Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 42 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 41 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 40 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 39 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 38 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 37 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 36 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 35 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 34 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 33 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 32 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 31 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 30 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 29 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 28 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 27 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 26 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 25 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 24 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 23 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 22 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 21 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 20 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 19 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 18 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 17 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 16 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 15 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 14 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 13 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 12 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 11 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 10 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 9 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 8 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 7 points: 4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 6 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 5 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3 points: 8%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Carolina Panthers by 1 point: 2%Carolina Panthers by 2 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 3 points: 7%Carolina Panthers by 4 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 5 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 6 points: 4%Carolina Panthers by 7 points: 4%Carolina Panthers by 8 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 9 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 10 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 11 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 12 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 13 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 14 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 15 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 16 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 17 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 18 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 19 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 20 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 21 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 22 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 23 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 24 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 25 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 26 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 27 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 28 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 29 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 30 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 31 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 32 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 33 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 34 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 35 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 36 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 37 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 38 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 39 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 40 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 41 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 42 points: <1%
← TB wins byCAR wins by →
Carolina Panthers wins by 3 or more52%
Carolina Panthers wins by 7 or more36%
Carolina Panthers wins by 10 or more28%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

45.5 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 38.568%
Total over 45.548%
Total over 52.529%
Total from 39 to 5238%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
TBBaker Mayfield · last 3 games: 64% completions, 205 yds/game, 2 TD, 2 INTstarted
CARBryce Young · last 3 games: 59% completions, 300 yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·CAR
Oct 18 vs PIT
last game
Oct 18 at PHI
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Weather

forecast for kickoff · NWS
temp67°F · sunny
wind10 mph NE
rain0% chance

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Inactives · Oct 25, 2026, 11:30 AM CT
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
TBAntoine Winfield Jr. · ribsInactive
TBAyden Garnes · coach's decisionInactive
TBBilly Schrauth · coach's decisionInactive
TBDeMonte Capehart · coach's decisionInactive
TBEmeka Egbuka · concussionInactive
TBLuke Goedeke · calfInactive
Carolina Panthers
CARAJ Dillon · coach's decisionInactive
CARHaynes King · coach's decisionInactive
CARJa'Tavion Sanders · coach's decisionInactive
CARJaelan Phillips · hamstringInactive
CARSam Hecht · coach's decisionInactive
CARStone Forsythe · coach's decisionInactive
CARTeRah Edwards · coach's decisionInactive

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
TB·CAR
−0.32
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
19.8
points / game
29.2
23.0
points allowed / game
24.6
1−5
season record
3−2
0−4
home record
1−1
1−1
away record
2−1
L1
streak
W2
2−8
last 10
4−6
293
total yards / game
404
4.7
yards / play
6.0
165
passing yards / game
296
128
rushing yards / game
109
17.8
first downs / game
23.8
1.8
turnovers / game
0.8

Rating Trend

TB · CAR · 25 days
Tampa Bay BuccaneersCarolina Panthers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CAR 2−8
Jan 3at TBTB 16 − 14
Dec 21, 2025at CARCAR 23 − 20
Dec 29, 2024at TBTB 48 − 14
Dec 1, 2024at CARTB 26 − 23
Jan 7, 2024at CARTB 9 − 0
Dec 3, 2023at TBTB 21 − 18
Jan 1, 2023at TBTB 30 − 24
Oct 23, 2022at CARCAR 21 − 3
Jan 9, 2022at TBTB 41 − 17
Dec 26, 2021at CARTB 32 − 6

TB · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Oct 18vs PIT19 − 26L
Oct 8at DAL24 − 16W
Oct 4vs GB14 − 17L
Sep 27vs MIN16 − 23L
Sep 20vs CLE19 − 23L
Sep 13at CIN27 − 33L
Jan 3vs CAR16 − 14W
Dec 28, 2025at MIA17 − 20L
Dec 21, 2025at CAR20 − 23L
Dec 11, 2025vs ATL28 − 29L

CAR · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Oct 18at PHI25 − 14W
Oct 4vs DET32 − 26W
Sep 27at CLE18 − 21L
Sep 20at ATL34 − 3W
Sep 13vs CHI37 − 59L
Jan 10vs LAR31 − 34L
Jan 3at TB14 − 16L
Dec 28, 2025vs SEA10 − 27L
Dec 21, 2025vs TB23 − 20W
Dec 14, 2025at NO17 − 20L