bayesRatings

Steelers at Buccaneers

NFL · Sunday, Oct 18 · 12:00 PM CT · Raymond James Stadium · Final PIT 26 – TB 19
← NFL / Oct 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
PIT03016726
TB31033019
Team box
PIT·TB
300
total yards
224
211
passing yards
122
89
rushing yards
102
22
first downs
17
5-15
third downs
6-19
1
turnovers
2
38:36
time of possession
31:24
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Aaron RodgersPIT33/4925321
Jalon DanielsTB22/4316412
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jaylen WarrenPIT14500
Bucky IrvingTB19460
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
DK MetcalfPIT11930
Emeka EgbukaTB7481

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +13
PIT +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: TB 13 · PIT 7lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 56%, TB 44% · Updated Oct 18

Expected margin
TB by 0.1
Expected score
TB 22.0 – 21.9 PIT
Expected total
43.9
SteelersThe matchupBuccaneers
−129Our fair odds+129
21.9Expected points22.0
+0.09Power rating−0.26
22.2Points / game20.0
21.8Allowed / game22.4
325Total yards / game306
5.3Yards / play5.0
223Passing yards / game173
3−2Season record1−4
6−4Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · TB chance
Our model fair56.2%43.8%
Kalshi58.7%46.7%
Polymarket US58.0%45.7%
ProphetX57.4%45.0%
Novig57.0%43.5%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:00 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 11:59 AM CTProphetXpre-game · 11:58 AM CTNovigpre-game · 11:58 AM CT
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Steelers−12956%−14258.7%−13858.0%−13557.4%−13357.0%
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers+12944%+11446.7%+11945.7%+12245.0%+13043.5%
SpreadTB by 0.1
PITPittsburgh Steelers+0.1our margin−2.5 −11252.7%−2.5 −10952.2%−2.5 −10751.7%−2.5 −10250.5%
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers−0.1our margin+2.5 −10751.8%+2.5 −10751.7%+2.5 −10451.0%+2.5 +10050.0%
Totalwe expect 43.9
Over43.9our totalo37.5 −11252.7%o37.5 −10952.2%o37.5 −10551.2%o37.5 −10250.5%
Under43.9our totalu37.5 −10751.8%u37.5 −10751.7%u37.5 −10852.0%u37.5 −10250.5%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 0.1 expected
Pittsburgh Steelers by 39 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 38 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 37 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 36 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 35 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 34 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 33 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 32 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 31 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 30 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 29 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 28 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 27 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 26 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 25 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 24 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 23 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 22 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 21 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 20 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 19 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 18 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 17 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 16 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 15 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 14 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 13 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 12 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 11 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 10 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 9 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 8 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 7 points: 5%Pittsburgh Steelers by 6 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 5 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 4 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 3 points: 9%Pittsburgh Steelers by 2 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1 point: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3 points: 7%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 5 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 6 points: 4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 7 points: 4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 8 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 9 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 10 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 11 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 12 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 13 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 14 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 15 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 16 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 17 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 18 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 19 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 20 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 21 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 22 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 23 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 24 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 25 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 26 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 27 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 28 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 29 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 30 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 31 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 32 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 33 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 34 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 35 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 36 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 37 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 38 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 39 points: <1%
← PIT wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 3 or more43%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 7 or more27%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 10 or more20%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

43.9 expected
10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 36.569%
Total over 43.549%
Total over 50.530%
Total from 37 to 5039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
PITAaron Rodgers · last 3 games: 60% completions, 275 yds/game, 9 TD, 3 INTstarted
TBJalon Daniels · last 3 games: 69% completions, 112 yds/game, 2 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·TB
Oct 11 vs IND
last game
Oct 8 at DAL
6 days
days of rest
9 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Weather

forecast for kickoff · NWS
temp77°F · sunny
wind15 mph NE
rain0% chance

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Inactives · Oct 18, 2026, 11:30 AM CT
Pittsburgh Steelers
PITBen Skowronek · calfInactive
PITDrew Allar · coach's decisionInactive
PITEli Heidenreich · coach's decisionInactive
PITKevin Jobity Jr. · coach's decisionInactive
PITSean Murphy-Bunting · coach's decisionInactive
PITTerell Smith · coach's decisionInactive
PITWill Howard · coach's decisionInactive
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
TBAntoine Winfield Jr. · ribsInactive
TBBaker Mayfield · thumbInactive
TBBenjamin Morrison · quadricepsInactive
TBBilly Schrauth · coach's decisionInactive
TBDeMonte Capehart · coach's decisionInactive
TBLuke Haggard · coach's decisionInactive

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
PIT·TB
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.26
22.2
points / game
20.0
21.8
points allowed / game
22.4
3−2
season record
1−4
3−0
home record
0−3
0−2
away record
1−1
W1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
2−8
325
total yards / game
306
5.3
yards / play
5.0
223
passing yards / game
173
101
rushing yards / game
133
18.6
first downs / game
18.0
1.2
turnovers / game
1.8

Rating Trend

PIT · TB · 18 days
Pittsburgh SteelersTampa Bay Buccaneers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · TB 0−1
Oct 16, 2022at PITPIT 20 − 18

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Oct 11vs IND34 − 22W
Oct 1at CLE24 − 27L
Sep 27vs CIN30 − 27W
Sep 20at NE3 − 20L
Sep 13vs ATL20 − 13W
Jan 12vs HOU6 − 30L
Jan 4vs BAL26 − 24W
Dec 28, 2025at CLE6 − 13L
Dec 21, 2025at DET29 − 24W
Dec 15, 2025vs MIA28 − 15W

TB · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Oct 8at DAL24 − 16W
Oct 4vs GB14 − 17L
Sep 27vs MIN16 − 23L
Sep 20vs CLE19 − 23L
Sep 13at CIN27 − 33L
Jan 3vs CAR16 − 14W
Dec 28, 2025at MIA17 − 20L
Dec 21, 2025at CAR20 − 23L
Dec 11, 2025vs ATL28 − 29L
Dec 7, 2025vs NO20 − 24L