bayesRatings

Steelers at Browns

NFL · Thursday, Oct 1 · 7:15 PM CT · Huntington Bank Field · Final PIT 24 – CLE 27
← NFL / Oct 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PIT7301424
CLE0210627
Team box
PIT·CLE
361
total yards
372
269
passing yards
260
92
rushing yards
112
24
first downs
22
4-13
third downs
4-10
2
turnovers
2
31:11
time of possession
28:49
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Aaron RodgersPIT22/4029932
Deshaun WatsonCLE24/3326811
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jaylen WarrenPIT17930
Quinshon JudkinsCLE17531
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
DK MetcalfPIT51150
Denzel BostonCLE4890

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +14
PIT +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CLE 14 · PIT 7lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 52%, CLE 48% · Updated Oct 1

Expected margin
PIT by 3.1
Expected score
PIT 19.9 – 16.8 CLE
Expected total
36.7
SteelersThe matchupBrowns
−110Our fair odds+110
19.9Expected points16.8
+0.04Power rating−0.31
17.7Points / game18.0
20.0Allowed / game23.7
303Total yards / game266
4.9Yards / play4.9
208Passing yards / game178
2−1Season record2−1
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · CLE chance
Our model fair52.5%47.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Steelers−11052%————
CLECleveland Browns+11048%————
SpreadPIT by 3.1
PITPittsburgh Steelers−3.1our margin————
CLECleveland Browns+3.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 36.7
Over36.7our total————
Under36.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Pittsburgh Steelers by 3.1 expected
Pittsburgh Steelers by 39 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 38 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 37 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 36 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 35 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 34 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 33 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 32 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 31 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 30 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 29 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 28 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 27 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 26 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 25 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 24 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 23 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 22 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 21 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 20 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 19 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 18 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 17 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 16 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 15 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 14 points: 4%Pittsburgh Steelers by 13 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 12 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 11 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 10 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 9 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 8 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 7 points: 5%Pittsburgh Steelers by 6 points: 4%Pittsburgh Steelers by 5 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 4 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 3 points: 9%Pittsburgh Steelers by 2 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Cleveland Browns by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Browns by 2 points: 3%Cleveland Browns by 3 points: 7%Cleveland Browns by 4 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 5 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 6 points: 4%Cleveland Browns by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Browns by 8 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 9 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 10 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 11 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 12 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 13 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 14 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 15 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 16 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 17 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 18 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 19 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 20 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 22 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 23 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 25 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 26 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 27 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 28 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 29 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 39 points: <1%
← PIT wins byCLE wins by →
Pittsburgh Steelers wins by 3 or more55%
Pittsburgh Steelers wins by 7 or more36%
Pittsburgh Steelers wins by 10 or more28%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

36.7 expected
4 points: <1%5 points: <1%6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: 1%14 points: <1%15 points: 1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 2%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 2%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 3%27 points: 3%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 3%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 1%51 points: 2%52 points: 1%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: <1%63 points: <1%64 points: <1%65 points: <1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 29.570%
Total over 36.549%
Total over 43.529%
Total from 30 to 4342%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
PITAaron Rodgers · last 3 games: 58% completions, 233 yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INTstarted
CLEDeshaun Watson · last 3 games: 68% completions, 196 yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·CLE
Sep 27 vs CIN
last game
Sep 27 vs CAR
3 days
days of rest
3 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
PIT·CLE
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.31
17.7
points / game
18.0
20.0
points allowed / game
23.7
2−1
season record
2−1
2−0
home record
1−0
0−1
away record
1−1
W1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
5−5
303
total yards / game
266
4.9
yards / play
4.9
208
passing yards / game
178
96
rushing yards / game
88
17.7
first downs / game
15.3
1.3
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

PIT · CLE · 7 days
Pittsburgh SteelersCleveland Browns
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 4−6
Dec 28, 2025at CLECLE 13 − 6
Oct 12, 2025at PITPIT 23 − 9
Dec 8, 2024at PITPIT 27 − 14
Nov 21, 2024at CLECLE 24 − 19
Nov 19, 2023at CLECLE 13 − 10
Sep 18, 2023at PITPIT 26 − 22
Jan 8, 2023at PITPIT 28 − 14
Sep 22, 2022at CLECLE 29 − 17
Jan 3, 2022at PITPIT 26 − 14
Oct 31, 2021at CLEPIT 15 − 10

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Sep 27vs CIN30 − 27W
Sep 20at NE3 − 20L
Sep 13vs ATL20 − 13W
Jan 12vs HOU6 − 30L
Jan 4vs BAL26 − 24W
Dec 28, 2025at CLE6 − 13L
Dec 21, 2025at DET29 − 24W
Dec 15, 2025vs MIA28 − 15W
Dec 7, 2025at BAL27 − 22W
Nov 30, 2025vs BUF7 − 26L

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Sep 27vs CAR21 − 18W
Sep 20at TB23 − 19W
Sep 13at JAX10 − 34L
Jan 4at CIN20 − 18W
Dec 28, 2025vs PIT13 − 6W
Dec 21, 2025vs BUF20 − 23L
Dec 14, 2025at CHI3 − 31L
Dec 7, 2025vs TEN29 − 31L
Nov 30, 2025vs SF8 − 26L
Nov 23, 2025at LV24 − 10W