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Bengals at Steelers

NFL · Sunday, Sep 27 · 12:00 PM CT · Acrisure Stadium · Final CIN 27 – PIT 30
← NFL / Sep 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CIN7103727
PIT1437630
Team box
CIN·PIT
352
total yards
411
269
passing yards
273
83
rushing yards
138
19
first downs
22
6-12
third downs
7-12
2
turnovers
1
30:06
time of possession
29:54
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Joe BurrowCIN28/3728230
Aaron RodgersPIT19/3429231
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Chase BrownCIN13610
Jaylen WarrenPIT171270
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Ja'Marr ChaseCIN9981
Darnell WashingtonPIT3670

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +7
CIN +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PIT 7 · CIN 3lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 47%, PIT 53% · Updated Sep 27

Expected margin
CIN by 1.0
Expected score
CIN 23.4 – 22.4 PIT
Expected total
45.9
BengalsThe matchupSteelers
+113Our fair odds−113
23.4Expected points22.4
+0.04Power rating−0.02
26.5Points / game11.5
16.5Allowed / game16.5
309Total yards / game250
5.0Yards / play3.8
214Passing yards / game175
2−0Season record1−1
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · PIT chance
Our model fair47.0%53.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Bengals+11347%————
PITPittsburgh Steelers−11353%————
SpreadCIN by 1.0
CINCincinnati Bengals−1our margin————
PITPittsburgh Steelers+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 45.9
Over45.9our total————
Under45.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cincinnati Bengals by 1.0 expected
Cincinnati Bengals by 38 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 37 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 36 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 35 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 34 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 33 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 32 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 31 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 30 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 29 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 28 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 27 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 26 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 25 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 24 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 23 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 22 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 21 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 20 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 19 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 18 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 17 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 16 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 15 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 14 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 13 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 12 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 11 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 10 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 9 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 8 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 7 points: 5%Cincinnati Bengals by 6 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 5 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 4 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 3 points: 9%Cincinnati Bengals by 2 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 1 point: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 2 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 3 points: 7%Pittsburgh Steelers by 4 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 5 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 6 points: 4%Pittsburgh Steelers by 7 points: 4%Pittsburgh Steelers by 8 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 9 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 10 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 11 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 12 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 13 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 14 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 15 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 16 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 17 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 18 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 19 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 20 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 21 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 22 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 23 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 24 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 25 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 26 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 27 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 28 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 29 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 30 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 31 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 32 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 33 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 34 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 35 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 36 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 37 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 38 points: <1%
← CIN wins byPIT wins by →
Cincinnati Bengals wins by 3 or more49%
Cincinnati Bengals wins by 7 or more31%
Cincinnati Bengals wins by 10 or more23%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

45.9 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 38.568%
Total over 45.548%
Total over 52.530%
Total from 39 to 5238%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CINJoe Burrow · last 3 games: 70% completions, 232 yds/game, 6 TD, 2 INTstarted
PITAaron Rodgers · last 3 games: 57% completions, 185 yds/game, 1 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·PIT
Sep 20 at HOU
last game
Sep 20 at NE
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
CIN·PIT
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
26.5
points / game
11.5
16.5
points allowed / game
16.5
2−0
season record
1−1
1−0
home record
1−0
1−0
away record
0−1
W2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
309
total yards / game
250
5.0
yards / play
3.8
214
passing yards / game
175
96
rushing yards / game
74
19.0
first downs / game
15.5
0.5
turnovers / game
1.5

Rating Trend

CIN · PIT · 5 days
Cincinnati BengalsPittsburgh Steelers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 5−5
Nov 16, 2025at PITPIT 34 − 12
Oct 16, 2025at CINCIN 33 − 31
Jan 4, 2025at PITCIN 19 − 17
Dec 1, 2024at CINPIT 44 − 38
Dec 23, 2023at PITPIT 34 − 11
Nov 26, 2023at CINPIT 16 − 10
Nov 20, 2022at PITCIN 37 − 30
Sep 11, 2022at CINPIT 23 − 20
Nov 28, 2021at CINCIN 41 − 10
Sep 26, 2021at PITCIN 24 − 10

CIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Sep 20at HOU20 − 6W
Sep 13vs TB33 − 27W
Jan 4vs CLE18 − 20L
Dec 28, 2025vs ARI37 − 14W
Dec 21, 2025at MIA45 − 21W
Dec 14, 2025vs BAL0 − 24L
Dec 7, 2025at BUF34 − 39L
Nov 27, 2025at BAL32 − 14W
Nov 23, 2025vs NE20 − 26L
Nov 16, 2025at PIT12 − 34L

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Sep 20at NE3 − 20L
Sep 13vs ATL20 − 13W
Jan 12vs HOU6 − 30L
Jan 4vs BAL26 − 24W
Dec 28, 2025at CLE6 − 13L
Dec 21, 2025at DET29 − 24W
Dec 15, 2025vs MIA28 − 15W
Dec 7, 2025at BAL27 − 22W
Nov 30, 2025vs BUF7 − 26L
Nov 23, 2025at CHI28 − 31L