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Steelers at Patriots

NFL · Sunday, Sep 20 · 12:00 PM CT · Gillette Stadium · Final PIT 3 – NE 20
← NFL / Sep 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PIT03003
NE733720
Team box
PIT·NE
235
total yards
327
144
passing yards
191
91
rushing yards
136
16
first downs
15
2-12
third downs
4-12
2
turnovers
2
32:47
time of possession
27:13
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Aaron RodgersPIT23/3918701
Drake MayeNE14/2220801
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jaylen WarrenPIT11430
TreVeyon HendersonNE16761
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Germie BernardPIT4350
Romeo DoubsNE3960

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NE +17
PIT +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NE 17 · PIT 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 38%, NE 62% · Updated Sep 20

Expected margin
NE by 8.1
Expected score
NE 23.2 – 15.1 PIT
Expected total
38.3
SteelersThe matchupPatriots
+165Our fair odds−165
15.1Expected points23.2
+0.08Power rating+0.38
20.0Points / game10.0
13.0Allowed / game13.0
264Total yards / game277
4.1Yards / play4.1
206Passing yards / game168
1−0Season record0−1
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · NE chance
Our model fair37.7%62.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Steelers+16538%————
NENew England Patriots−16562%————
SpreadNE by 8.1
PITPittsburgh Steelers+8.1our margin————
NENew England Patriots−8.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 38.3
Over38.3our total————
Under38.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New England Patriots by 8.1 expected
Pittsburgh Steelers by 47 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 46 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 45 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 44 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 43 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 42 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 41 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 40 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 39 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 38 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 37 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 36 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 35 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 34 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 33 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 32 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 31 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 30 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 29 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 28 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 27 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 26 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 25 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 24 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 23 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 22 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 21 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 20 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 19 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 18 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 17 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 16 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 15 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 14 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 13 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 12 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 11 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 10 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 9 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 8 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 7 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 6 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 5 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 4 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 3 points: 6%Pittsburgh Steelers by 2 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%New England Patriots by 1 point: 2%New England Patriots by 2 points: 3%New England Patriots by 3 points: 7%New England Patriots by 4 points: 2%New England Patriots by 5 points: 2%New England Patriots by 6 points: 4%New England Patriots by 7 points: 4%New England Patriots by 8 points: 3%New England Patriots by 9 points: 1%New England Patriots by 10 points: 2%New England Patriots by 11 points: 1%New England Patriots by 12 points: 2%New England Patriots by 13 points: 2%New England Patriots by 14 points: 2%New England Patriots by 15 points: 1%New England Patriots by 16 points: 1%New England Patriots by 17 points: 4%New England Patriots by 18 points: 2%New England Patriots by 19 points: 1%New England Patriots by 20 points: 2%New England Patriots by 21 points: 2%New England Patriots by 22 points: 1%New England Patriots by 23 points: 1%New England Patriots by 24 points: 2%New England Patriots by 25 points: 1%New England Patriots by 26 points: 1%New England Patriots by 27 points: 1%New England Patriots by 28 points: 1%New England Patriots by 29 points: 1%New England Patriots by 30 points: 1%New England Patriots by 31 points: 2%New England Patriots by 32 points: 1%New England Patriots by 33 points: <1%New England Patriots by 34 points: 1%New England Patriots by 35 points: 1%New England Patriots by 36 points: 1%New England Patriots by 37 points: 1%New England Patriots by 38 points: 1%New England Patriots by 39 points: <1%New England Patriots by 40 points: <1%New England Patriots by 41 points: <1%New England Patriots by 42 points: <1%New England Patriots by 43 points: <1%New England Patriots by 44 points: <1%New England Patriots by 45 points: <1%New England Patriots by 46 points: <1%New England Patriots by 47 points: <1%
← PIT wins byNE wins by →
New England Patriots wins by 3 or more65%
New England Patriots wins by 7 or more50%
New England Patriots wins by 10 or more42%
Within 3 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

38.3 expected
5 points: <1%6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 3%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 1%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: <1%65 points: <1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 31.569%
Total over 38.548%
Total over 45.528%
Total from 32 to 4541%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
PITAaron Rodgers · last 3 games: 60% completions, 220 yds/game, 2 TD, 1 INTstarted
NEDrake Maye · last 3 games: 62% completions, 186 yds/game, 3 TD, 5 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·NE
Sep 13 vs ATL
last game
Sep 9 at SEA
6 days
days of rest
10 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
PIT·NE
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.38
20.0
points / game
10.0
13.0
points allowed / game
13.0
1−0
season record
0−1
1−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−1
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
7−3
264
total yards / game
277
4.1
yards / play
4.1
206
passing yards / game
168
58
rushing yards / game
109
15.0
first downs / game
19.0
1.0
turnovers / game
3.0

Rating Trend

PIT · NE · 2 days
Pittsburgh SteelersNew England Patriots
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · NE 2−1
Sep 21, 2025at NEPIT 21 − 14
Dec 7, 2023at PITNE 21 − 18
Sep 18, 2022at PITNE 17 − 14

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Sep 13vs ATL20 − 13W
Jan 12vs HOU6 − 30L
Jan 4vs BAL26 − 24W
Dec 28, 2025at CLE6 − 13L
Dec 21, 2025at DET29 − 24W
Dec 15, 2025vs MIA28 − 15W
Dec 7, 2025at BAL27 − 22W
Nov 30, 2025vs BUF7 − 26L
Nov 23, 2025at CHI28 − 31L
Nov 16, 2025vs CIN34 − 12W

NE · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Sep 9at SEA10 − 13L
Feb 8vs SEA13 − 29L
Jan 25at DEN10 − 7W
Jan 18vs HOU28 − 16W
Jan 11vs LAC16 − 3W
Jan 4vs MIA38 − 10W
Dec 28, 2025at NYJ42 − 10W
Dec 21, 2025at BAL28 − 24W
Dec 14, 2025vs BUF31 − 35L
Dec 1, 2025vs NYG33 − 15W