bayesRatings

Seahawks at Patriots

NFL · Sunday, Feb 8 · 5:30 PM CT · Levi's Stadium · neutral site · Final SEA 29 – NE 13
← NFL / Feb 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SEA3631729
NE0001313
Team box
SEA·NE
335
total yards
331
194
passing yards
252
141
rushing yards
79
20
first downs
18
4-16
third downs
6-15
0
turnovers
3
33:11
time of possession
26:49
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Sam DarnoldSEA19/3820210
Drake MayeNE27/4329522
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Kenneth Walker IIISEA271350
Drake MayeNE5370
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Cooper KuppSEA6610
Mack HollinsNE4781

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NE +22
SEA +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NE 0 · SEA 22lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 65%, NE 35% · Updated Feb 8

Expected margin
SEA by 3.9
Expected score
SEA 23.1 – 19.2 NE
Expected total
42.3
SeahawksThe matchupPatriots
−183Our fair odds+183
23.1Expected points19.2
+1.41Power rating+0.77
28.4Points / game28.8
17.2Allowed / game18.8
351Total yards / game379
6.0Yards / play6.2
228Passing yards / game250
14−3 · 2−0 postSeason record14−3 · 3−0 post
9−1Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · NE chance
Our model fair64.6%35.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Seahawks−18365%————
NENew England Patriots+18335%————
SpreadSEA by 3.9
SEASeattle Seahawks−3.9our margin————
NENew England Patriots+3.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 42.3
Over42.3our total————
Under42.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Seahawks by 3.9 expected
Seattle Seahawks by 39 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 38 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 37 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 36 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 35 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 34 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 33 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 32 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 31 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 30 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 29 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 28 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 27 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 26 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 25 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 24 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 23 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 22 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 21 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 20 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 19 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 18 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 17 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 16 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 15 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 14 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 13 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 12 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 11 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 10 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 9 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 8 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 7 points: 5%Seattle Seahawks by 6 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 5 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 4 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 3 points: 9%Seattle Seahawks by 2 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%New England Patriots by 1 point: 2%New England Patriots by 2 points: 3%New England Patriots by 3 points: 7%New England Patriots by 4 points: 2%New England Patriots by 5 points: 2%New England Patriots by 6 points: 3%New England Patriots by 7 points: 3%New England Patriots by 8 points: 2%New England Patriots by 9 points: 1%New England Patriots by 10 points: 1%New England Patriots by 11 points: <1%New England Patriots by 12 points: 1%New England Patriots by 13 points: 1%New England Patriots by 14 points: 1%New England Patriots by 15 points: 1%New England Patriots by 16 points: 1%New England Patriots by 17 points: 1%New England Patriots by 18 points: 1%New England Patriots by 19 points: <1%New England Patriots by 20 points: 1%New England Patriots by 21 points: 1%New England Patriots by 22 points: <1%New England Patriots by 23 points: <1%New England Patriots by 24 points: 1%New England Patriots by 25 points: <1%New England Patriots by 26 points: <1%New England Patriots by 27 points: <1%New England Patriots by 28 points: <1%New England Patriots by 29 points: <1%New England Patriots by 30 points: <1%New England Patriots by 31 points: <1%New England Patriots by 32 points: <1%New England Patriots by 33 points: <1%New England Patriots by 34 points: <1%New England Patriots by 35 points: <1%New England Patriots by 36 points: <1%New England Patriots by 37 points: <1%New England Patriots by 38 points: <1%New England Patriots by 39 points: <1%
← SEA wins byNE wins by →
Seattle Seahawks wins by 3 or more57%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 7 or more39%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 10 or more30%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

42.3 expected
9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 35.568%
Total over 42.547%
Total over 49.528%
Total from 36 to 4940%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
SEASam Darnold · last 3 games: 72% completions, 223 yds/game, 4 TD, 0 INTstarted
NEDrake Maye · last 3 games: 56% completions, 178 yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·NE
Jan 25 vs LAR
last game
Jan 25 at DEN
13 days
days of rest
13 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 17+ games
SEA·NE
+1.41
rating (0 = average)
+0.77
28.4
points / game
28.8
17.2
points allowed / game
18.8
14−3 · 2−0 post
season record
14−3 · 3−0 post
6−2
home record
6−3
8−1
away record
8−0
W9
streak
W6
9−1
last 10
9−1
351
total yards / game
379
6.0
yards / play
6.2
228
passing yards / game
250
123
rushing yards / game
129
20.0
first downs / game
21.2
1.6
turnovers / game
0.9

Rating Trend

SEA · NE · 60 days
Seattle SeahawksNew England Patriots
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · NE 0−1
Sep 15, 2024at NESEA 23 − 20

SEA · Last 10

9−1 · streak W9
Jan 25vs LAR31 − 27W
Jan 17vs SF41 − 6W
Jan 3at SF13 − 3W
Dec 28, 2025at CAR27 − 10W
Dec 18, 2025vs LAR38 − 37W
Dec 14, 2025vs IND18 − 16W
Dec 7, 2025at ATL37 − 9W
Nov 30, 2025vs MIN26 − 0W
Nov 23, 2025at TEN30 − 24W
Nov 16, 2025at LAR19 − 21L

NE · Last 10

9−1 · streak W6
Jan 25at DEN10 − 7W
Jan 18vs HOU28 − 16W
Jan 11vs LAC16 − 3W
Jan 4vs MIA38 − 10W
Dec 28, 2025at NYJ42 − 10W
Dec 21, 2025at BAL28 − 24W
Dec 14, 2025vs BUF31 − 35L
Dec 1, 2025vs NYG33 − 15W
Nov 23, 2025at CIN26 − 20W
Nov 13, 2025vs NYJ27 − 14W