bayesRatings

Patriots at Seahawks

NFL · Wednesday, Sep 9 · 7:20 PM CT · Lumen Field · Final NE 10 – SEA 13
← NFL / Sep 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NE073010
SEA0031013
Team box
NE·SEA
277
total yards
285
168
passing yards
188
109
rushing yards
97
19
first downs
13
5-16
third downs
2-11
3
turnovers
0
34:17
time of possession
25:43
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Drake MayeNE23/3317813
Drew LockSEA16/2218710
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Rhamondre StevensonNE18510
Jadarian PriceSEA10520
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Mack HollinsNE4510
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA81221

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +10
NE +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SEA 3 · NE 10lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NE 26%, SEA 74% · Updated Sep 9

Expected margin
SEA by 7.6
Expected score
SEA 25.2 – 17.6 NE
Expected total
42.9
PatriotsThe matchupSeahawks
+279Our fair odds−279
17.6Expected points25.2
+0.69Power rating+1.52
0−0Season record0−0
8−2Last 1010−0

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NE chance · SEA chance
Our model fair26.4%73.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NENew England Patriots+27926%————
SEASeattle Seahawks−27974%————
SpreadSEA by 7.6
NENew England Patriots+7.6our margin————
SEASeattle Seahawks−7.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 42.9
Over42.9our total————
Under42.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Seahawks by 7.6 expected
New England Patriots by 46 points: <1%New England Patriots by 45 points: <1%New England Patriots by 44 points: <1%New England Patriots by 43 points: <1%New England Patriots by 42 points: <1%New England Patriots by 41 points: <1%New England Patriots by 40 points: <1%New England Patriots by 39 points: <1%New England Patriots by 38 points: <1%New England Patriots by 37 points: <1%New England Patriots by 36 points: <1%New England Patriots by 35 points: <1%New England Patriots by 34 points: <1%New England Patriots by 33 points: <1%New England Patriots by 32 points: <1%New England Patriots by 31 points: <1%New England Patriots by 30 points: <1%New England Patriots by 29 points: <1%New England Patriots by 28 points: <1%New England Patriots by 27 points: <1%New England Patriots by 26 points: <1%New England Patriots by 25 points: <1%New England Patriots by 24 points: <1%New England Patriots by 23 points: <1%New England Patriots by 22 points: <1%New England Patriots by 21 points: 1%New England Patriots by 20 points: <1%New England Patriots by 19 points: <1%New England Patriots by 18 points: <1%New England Patriots by 17 points: 1%New England Patriots by 16 points: 1%New England Patriots by 15 points: <1%New England Patriots by 14 points: 2%New England Patriots by 13 points: <1%New England Patriots by 12 points: <1%New England Patriots by 11 points: <1%New England Patriots by 10 points: 2%New England Patriots by 9 points: <1%New England Patriots by 8 points: 1%New England Patriots by 7 points: 3%New England Patriots by 6 points: 2%New England Patriots by 5 points: 2%New England Patriots by 4 points: 2%New England Patriots by 3 points: 6%New England Patriots by 2 points: 1%New England Patriots by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 1 point: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 2 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 3 points: 7%Seattle Seahawks by 4 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 5 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 6 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 7 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 8 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 9 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 10 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 11 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 12 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 13 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 14 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 15 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 16 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 17 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 18 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 19 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 20 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 21 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 22 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 23 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 24 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 25 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 26 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 27 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 28 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 29 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 30 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 31 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 32 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 33 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 34 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 35 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 36 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 37 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 38 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 39 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 40 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 41 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 42 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 43 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 44 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 45 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 46 points: <1%
← NE wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Seahawks wins by 3 or more64%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 7 or more49%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 10 or more40%
Within 3 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

42.9 expected
9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 35.570%
Total over 42.549%
Total over 49.530%
Total from 36 to 4940%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NEDrake Maye · last 3 games: 58% completions, 187 yds/game, 5 TD, 3 INTstarted
SEADrew Lock · last 3 games: 75% completions, 154 yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NE·SEA
Feb 8 vs SEA
last game
Feb 8 at NE
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season
NE·SEA
+0.69
rating (0 = average)
+1.52
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
8−2
last 10
10−0

Rating Trend

NE · SEA · 61 days
New England PatriotsSeattle Seahawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · SEA 2−0
Feb 8at NESEA 29 − 13post
Sep 15, 2024at NESEA 23 − 20

NE · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Feb 8vs SEA13 − 29L
Jan 25at DEN10 − 7W
Jan 18vs HOU28 − 16W
Jan 11vs LAC16 − 3W
Jan 4vs MIA38 − 10W
Dec 28, 2025at NYJ42 − 10W
Dec 21, 2025at BAL28 − 24W
Dec 14, 2025vs BUF31 − 35L
Dec 1, 2025vs NYG33 − 15W
Nov 23, 2025at CIN26 − 20W

SEA · Last 10

10−0 · streak W10
Feb 8at NE29 − 13W
Jan 25vs LAR31 − 27W
Jan 17vs SF41 − 6W
Jan 3at SF13 − 3W
Dec 28, 2025at CAR27 − 10W
Dec 18, 2025vs LAR38 − 37W
Dec 14, 2025vs IND18 − 16W
Dec 7, 2025at ATL37 − 9W
Nov 30, 2025vs MIN26 − 0W
Nov 23, 2025at TEN30 − 24W