bayesRatings

Panthers at Browns

NFL · Sunday, Sep 27 · 12:00 PM CT · Huntington Bank Field · Final CAR 18 – CLE 21
← NFL / Sep 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CAR036918
CLE01001121
Team box
CAR·CLE
360
total yards
259
262
passing yards
127
98
rushing yards
132
24
first downs
17
4-15
third downs
5-15
1
turnovers
1
29:53
time of possession
30:07
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Bryce YoungCAR26/4829111
Deshaun WatsonCLE16/3014420
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Chuba HubbardCAR19820
Quinshon JudkinsCLE18700
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Brycen TremayneCAR4830
Harold Fannin Jr.CLE7512

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +10
CAR +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CLE 10 · CAR 5lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CAR 51%, CLE 49% · Updated Sep 27

Expected margin
CAR by 3.5
Expected score
CAR 23.4 – 19.9 CLE
Expected total
43.3
PanthersThe matchupBrowns
−105Our fair odds+105
23.4Expected points19.9
−0.19Power rating−0.43
35.5Points / game16.5
31.0Allowed / game26.5
409Total yards / game270
6.7Yards / play5.2
312Passing yards / game204
1−1Season record1−1
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CAR chance · CLE chance
Our model fair51.2%48.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CARCarolina Panthers−10551%————
CLECleveland Browns+10549%————
SpreadCAR by 3.5
CARCarolina Panthers−3.5our margin————
CLECleveland Browns+3.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 43.3
Over43.3our total————
Under43.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Carolina Panthers by 3.5 expected
Carolina Panthers by 39 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 38 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 37 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 36 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 35 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 34 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 33 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 32 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 31 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 30 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 29 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 28 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 27 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 26 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 25 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 24 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 23 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 22 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 21 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 20 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 19 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 18 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 17 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 16 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 15 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 14 points: 4%Carolina Panthers by 13 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 12 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 11 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 10 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 9 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 8 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 7 points: 5%Carolina Panthers by 6 points: 4%Carolina Panthers by 5 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 4 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 3 points: 9%Carolina Panthers by 2 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Cleveland Browns by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Browns by 2 points: 3%Cleveland Browns by 3 points: 7%Cleveland Browns by 4 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 5 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Browns by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Browns by 8 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 9 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 10 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 11 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 12 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 13 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 14 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 15 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 16 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 17 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 18 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 19 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 20 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 22 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 23 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 25 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 26 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 27 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 28 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 29 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 39 points: <1%
← CAR wins byCLE wins by →
Carolina Panthers wins by 3 or more56%
Carolina Panthers wins by 7 or more37%
Carolina Panthers wins by 10 or more29%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

43.3 expected
9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 36.568%
Total over 43.547%
Total over 50.529%
Total from 37 to 5039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CARBryce Young · last 3 games: 59% completions, 304 yds/game, 7 TD, 2 INTstarted
CLEDeshaun Watson · last 3 games: 80% completions, 190 yds/game, 3 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CAR·CLE
Sep 20 at ATL
last game
Sep 20 at TB
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
CAR·CLE
−0.19
rating (0 = average)
−0.43
35.5
points / game
16.5
31.0
points allowed / game
26.5
1−1
season record
1−1
0−1
home record
0−0
1−0
away record
1−1
W1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
4−6
409
total yards / game
270
6.7
yards / play
5.2
312
passing yards / game
204
96
rushing yards / game
66
21.0
first downs / game
14.5
1.5
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

CAR · CLE · 5 days
Carolina PanthersCleveland Browns
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · CLE 1−0
Sep 11, 2022at CARCLE 26 − 24

CAR · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Sep 20at ATL34 − 3W
Sep 13vs CHI37 − 59L
Jan 10vs LAR31 − 34L
Jan 3at TB14 − 16L
Dec 28, 2025vs SEA10 − 27L
Dec 21, 2025vs TB23 − 20W
Dec 14, 2025at NO17 − 20L
Nov 30, 2025vs LAR31 − 28W
Nov 24, 2025at SF9 − 20L
Nov 16, 2025at ATL30 − 27W

CLE · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Sep 20at TB23 − 19W
Sep 13at JAX10 − 34L
Jan 4at CIN20 − 18W
Dec 28, 2025vs PIT13 − 6W
Dec 21, 2025vs BUF20 − 23L
Dec 14, 2025at CHI3 − 31L
Dec 7, 2025vs TEN29 − 31L
Nov 30, 2025vs SF8 − 26L
Nov 23, 2025at LV24 − 10W
Nov 16, 2025vs BAL16 − 23L