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Buccaneers at Cowboys

NFL · Thursday, Oct 8 · 7:15 PM CT · AT&T Stadium · Final TB 24 – DAL 16
← NFL / Oct 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TB0717024
DAL730616
Team box
TB·DAL
419
total yards
366
178
passing yards
316
241
rushing yards
50
24
first downs
20
7-13
third downs
4-10
0
turnovers
3
39:21
time of possession
20:39
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jalon DanielsTB19/2518910
Dak PrescottDAL24/4231612
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Bucky IrvingTB211651
Javonte WilliamsDAL12451
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Tez JohnsonTB1640
George PickensDAL91301

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +14
TB +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DAL 7 · TB 14lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 39%, DAL 61% · Updated Oct 8

Expected margin
TB by 0.1
Expected score
TB 28.2 – 28.1 DAL
Expected total
56.3
BuccaneersThe matchupCowboys
+156Our fair odds−156
28.2Expected points28.1
−0.39Power rating−0.14
19.0Points / game30.5
24.0Allowed / game28.0
278Total yards / game348
4.7Yards / play5.5
172Passing yards / game258
0−4Season record2−2
2−8Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · DAL chance
Our model fair39.1%60.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers+15639%————
DALDallas Cowboys−15661%————
SpreadTB by 0.1
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers−0.1our margin————
DALDallas Cowboys+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 56.3
Over56.3our total————
Under56.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 0.1 expected
Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 38 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 37 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 36 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 35 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 34 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 33 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 32 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 31 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 30 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 29 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 28 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 27 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 26 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 25 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 24 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 23 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 22 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 21 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 20 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 19 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 18 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 17 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 16 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 15 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 14 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 13 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 12 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 11 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 10 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 9 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 8 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 7 points: 5%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 6 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 5 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3 points: 9%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 1 point: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 2 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 3 points: 7%Dallas Cowboys by 4 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 5 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 6 points: 4%Dallas Cowboys by 7 points: 4%Dallas Cowboys by 8 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 9 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 10 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 11 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 12 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 13 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 14 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 15 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 16 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 17 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 18 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 19 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 20 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 21 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 22 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 23 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 24 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 25 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 26 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 27 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 28 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 29 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 30 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 31 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 32 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 33 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 34 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 35 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 36 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 37 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 38 points: <1%
← TB wins byDAL wins by →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 3 or more47%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 7 or more29%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 10 or more21%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

56.3 expected
20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: <1%27 points: <1%28 points: <1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 2%38 points: 1%39 points: 1%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 2%44 points: 2%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 3%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 2%68 points: 2%69 points: 2%70 points: 1%71 points: 2%72 points: 1%73 points: 2%74 points: 2%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: 1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: 1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%97 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 49.565%
Total over 56.548%
Total over 63.532%
Total from 50 to 6332%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
TBJalon Daniels · last 2 games: 63% completions, 74 yds/game, 1 TD, 3 INTstarted
DALDak Prescott · last 3 games: 72% completions, 297 yds/game, 6 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·DAL
Oct 4 vs GB
last game
Oct 4 at HOU
3 days
days of rest
3 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
TB·DAL
−0.39
rating (0 = average)
−0.14
19.0
points / game
30.5
24.0
points allowed / game
28.0
0−4
season record
2−2
0−3
home record
1−1
0−1
away record
1−1
L4
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
4−6
278
total yards / game
348
4.7
yards / play
5.5
172
passing yards / game
258
106
rushing yards / game
90
16.5
first downs / game
24.0
2.2
turnovers / game
0.5

Rating Trend

TB · DAL · 10 days
Tampa Bay BuccaneersDallas Cowboys
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 4 meetings · DAL 2−2
Dec 22, 2024at DALDAL 26 − 24
Jan 16, 2023at TBDAL 31 − 14post
Sep 11, 2022at DALTB 19 − 3
Sep 9, 2021at TBTB 31 − 29

TB · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
Oct 4vs GB14 − 17L
Sep 27vs MIN16 − 23L
Sep 20vs CLE19 − 23L
Sep 13at CIN27 − 33L
Jan 3vs CAR16 − 14W
Dec 28, 2025at MIA17 − 20L
Dec 21, 2025at CAR20 − 23L
Dec 11, 2025vs ATL28 − 29L
Dec 7, 2025vs NO20 − 24L
Nov 30, 2025vs ARI20 − 17W

DAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Oct 4at HOU34 − 30W
Sep 27vs BAL31 − 34L
Sep 20vs WSH37 − 20W
Sep 13at NYG20 − 28L
Jan 4at NYG17 − 34L
Dec 25, 2025at WSH30 − 23W
Dec 21, 2025vs LAC17 − 34L
Dec 14, 2025vs MIN26 − 34L
Dec 4, 2025at DET30 − 44L
Nov 27, 2025vs KC31 − 28W