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Commanders at Cowboys

NFL · Sunday, Sep 20 · 3:25 PM CT · AT&T Stadium · Final WSH 20 – DAL 37
← NFL / Sep 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
WSH0103720
DAL107101037
Team box
WSH·DAL
389
total yards
332
207
passing yards
266
182
rushing yards
66
24
first downs
20
8-14
third downs
7-11
1
turnovers
0
31:29
time of possession
28:31
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jayden DanielsWSH11/179610
Dak PrescottDAL26/3127940
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jayden DanielsWSH7690
Javonte WilliamsDAL12300
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Terry McLaurinWSH2500
CeeDee LambDAL81532

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +17
WSH +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DAL 17 · WSH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 46%, DAL 54% · Updated Sep 20

Expected margin
WSH by 0.2
Expected score
WSH 28.4 – 28.2 DAL
Expected total
56.6
CommandersThe matchupCowboys
+119Our fair odds−119
28.4Expected points28.2
−0.22Power rating−0.28
22.0Points / game20.0
24.0Allowed / game28.0
295Total yards / game244
4.4Yards / play4.7
163Passing yards / game175
0−1Season record0−1
2−8Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · DAL chance
Our model fair45.8%54.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Commanders+11946%————
DALDallas Cowboys−11954%————
SpreadWSH by 0.2
WSHWashington Commanders−0.2our margin————
DALDallas Cowboys+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 56.6
Over56.6our total————
Under56.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Washington Commanders by 0.2 expected
Washington Commanders by 38 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 37 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 36 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 35 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 34 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 33 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 32 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 31 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 30 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 29 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 28 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 27 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 26 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 25 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 24 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 23 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 22 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 21 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 20 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 19 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 18 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 17 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 16 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 15 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 14 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 13 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 12 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 11 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 10 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 9 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 8 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 7 points: 5%Washington Commanders by 6 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 5 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 4 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 3 points: 9%Washington Commanders by 2 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 1 point: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 2 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 3 points: 7%Dallas Cowboys by 4 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 5 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 6 points: 4%Dallas Cowboys by 7 points: 4%Dallas Cowboys by 8 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 9 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 10 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 11 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 12 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 13 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 14 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 15 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 16 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 17 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 18 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 19 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 20 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 21 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 22 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 23 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 24 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 25 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 26 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 27 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 28 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 29 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 30 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 31 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 32 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 33 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 34 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 35 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 36 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 37 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 38 points: <1%
← WSH wins byDAL wins by →
Washington Commanders wins by 3 or more47%
Washington Commanders wins by 7 or more29%
Washington Commanders wins by 10 or more21%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

56.6 expected
20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: <1%27 points: <1%28 points: <1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 2%38 points: 1%39 points: 1%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 2%44 points: 2%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 2%68 points: 2%69 points: 2%70 points: 1%71 points: 2%72 points: 1%73 points: 2%74 points: 2%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: 1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: 1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%97 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 49.565%
Total over 56.549%
Total over 63.533%
Total from 50 to 6332%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
WSHJayden Daniels · last 3 games: 57% completions, 132 yds/game, 2 TD, 2 INTstarted
DALDak Prescott · last 3 games: 59% completions, 184 yds/game, 4 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·DAL
Sep 13 at PHI
last game
Sep 13 at NYG
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
WSH·DAL
−0.22
rating (0 = average)
−0.28
22.0
points / game
20.0
24.0
points allowed / game
28.0
0−1
season record
0−1
0−0
home record
0−0
0−1
away record
0−1
L1
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
4−6
295
total yards / game
244
4.4
yards / play
4.7
163
passing yards / game
175
132
rushing yards / game
69
20.0
first downs / game
21.0
0.0
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

WSH · DAL · 2 days
Washington CommandersDallas Cowboys
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DAL 8−2
Dec 25, 2025at WSHDAL 30 − 23
Oct 19, 2025at DALDAL 44 − 22
Jan 5, 2025at DALWSH 23 − 19
Nov 24, 2024at WSHDAL 34 − 26
Jan 7, 2024at WSHDAL 38 − 10
Nov 23, 2023at DALDAL 45 − 10
Jan 8, 2023at WSHWSH 26 − 6
Oct 2, 2022at DALDAL 25 − 10
Dec 26, 2021at DALDAL 56 − 14
Dec 12, 2021at WSHDAL 27 − 20

WSH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Sep 13at PHI22 − 24L
Jan 4at PHI24 − 17W
Dec 25, 2025vs DAL23 − 30L
Dec 20, 2025vs PHI18 − 29L
Dec 14, 2025at NYG29 − 21W
Dec 7, 2025at MIN0 − 31L
Nov 30, 2025vs DEN26 − 27L
Nov 16, 2025at MIA13 − 16L
Nov 9, 2025vs DET22 − 44L
Nov 2, 2025vs SEA14 − 38L

DAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Sep 13at NYG20 − 28L
Jan 4at NYG17 − 34L
Dec 25, 2025at WSH30 − 23W
Dec 21, 2025vs LAC17 − 34L
Dec 14, 2025vs MIN26 − 34L
Dec 4, 2025at DET30 − 44L
Nov 27, 2025vs KC31 − 28W
Nov 23, 2025vs PHI24 − 21W
Nov 17, 2025at LV33 − 16W
Nov 3, 2025vs ARI17 − 27L