bayesRatings

Cowboys at Giants

NFL · Sunday, Sep 13 · 7:20 PM CT · MetLife Stadium · Final DAL 20 – NYG 28
← NFL / Sep 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL077620
NYG777728
Team box
DAL·NYG
244
total yards
394
175
passing yards
229
69
rushing yards
165
21
first downs
29
8-11
third downs
9-11
1
turnovers
1
23:20
time of possession
36:40
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Dak PrescottDAL22/3417521
Jaxson DartNYG23/2923030
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Javonte WilliamsDAL12411
Cam SkatteboNYG18811
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
CeeDee LambDAL5441
Isaiah LikelyNYG8782

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYG +14
DAL +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NYG 14 · DAL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 49%, NYG 51% · Updated Sep 13

Expected margin
DAL by 0.2
Expected score
DAL 28.2 – 28.0 NYG
Expected total
56.3
CowboysThe matchupGiants
+106Our fair odds−106
28.2Expected points28.0
−0.43Power rating−0.62
0−0Season record0−0
4−6Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · NYG chance
Our model fair48.6%51.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Cowboys+10649%————
NYGNew York Giants−10651%————
SpreadDAL by 0.2
DALDallas Cowboys−0.2our margin————
NYGNew York Giants+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 56.3
Over56.3our total————
Under56.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Dallas Cowboys by 0.2 expected
Dallas Cowboys by 38 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 37 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 36 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 35 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 34 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 33 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 32 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 31 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 30 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 29 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 28 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 27 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 26 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 25 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 24 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 23 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 22 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 21 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 20 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 19 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 18 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 17 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 16 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 15 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 14 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 13 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 12 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 11 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 10 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 9 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 8 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 7 points: 5%Dallas Cowboys by 6 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 5 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 4 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 3 points: 9%Dallas Cowboys by 2 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%New York Giants by 1 point: 2%New York Giants by 2 points: 3%New York Giants by 3 points: 7%New York Giants by 4 points: 2%New York Giants by 5 points: 2%New York Giants by 6 points: 4%New York Giants by 7 points: 4%New York Giants by 8 points: 3%New York Giants by 9 points: 1%New York Giants by 10 points: 2%New York Giants by 11 points: 1%New York Giants by 12 points: 1%New York Giants by 13 points: 1%New York Giants by 14 points: 1%New York Giants by 15 points: 1%New York Giants by 16 points: 1%New York Giants by 17 points: 2%New York Giants by 18 points: 1%New York Giants by 19 points: <1%New York Giants by 20 points: 1%New York Giants by 21 points: 1%New York Giants by 22 points: 1%New York Giants by 23 points: 1%New York Giants by 24 points: 1%New York Giants by 25 points: 1%New York Giants by 26 points: <1%New York Giants by 27 points: <1%New York Giants by 28 points: <1%New York Giants by 29 points: <1%New York Giants by 30 points: <1%New York Giants by 31 points: 1%New York Giants by 32 points: <1%New York Giants by 33 points: <1%New York Giants by 34 points: <1%New York Giants by 35 points: <1%New York Giants by 36 points: <1%New York Giants by 37 points: <1%New York Giants by 38 points: <1%
← DAL wins byNYG wins by →
Dallas Cowboys wins by 3 or more47%
Dallas Cowboys wins by 7 or more29%
Dallas Cowboys wins by 10 or more21%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

56.3 expected
20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: <1%27 points: <1%28 points: <1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 2%38 points: 1%39 points: 1%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 2%44 points: 2%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 3%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 2%68 points: 2%69 points: 2%70 points: 1%71 points: 2%72 points: 1%73 points: 2%74 points: 2%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: 1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: 1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%97 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 49.565%
Total over 56.548%
Total over 63.532%
Total from 50 to 6332%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
DALDak Prescott · last 3 games: 60% completions, 207 yds/game, 4 TD, 0 INTstarted
NYGJaxson Dart · last 3 games: 68% completions, 157 yds/game, 2 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·NYG
Jan 4 at NYG
last game
Jan 4 vs DAL
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season
DAL·NYG
−0.43
rating (0 = average)
−0.62
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
4−6
last 10
2−8

Rating Trend

DAL · NYG · 63 days
Dallas CowboysNew York Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYG 1−9
Jan 4at NYGNYG 34 − 17
Sep 14, 2025at DALDAL 40 − 37
Nov 28, 2024at DALDAL 27 − 20
Sep 26, 2024at NYGDAL 20 − 15
Nov 12, 2023at DALDAL 49 − 17
Sep 10, 2023at NYGDAL 40 − 0
Nov 24, 2022at DALDAL 28 − 20
Sep 26, 2022at NYGDAL 23 − 16
Dec 19, 2021at NYGDAL 21 − 6
Oct 10, 2021at DALDAL 44 − 20

DAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jan 4at NYG17 − 34L
Dec 25, 2025at WSH30 − 23W
Dec 21, 2025vs LAC17 − 34L
Dec 14, 2025vs MIN26 − 34L
Dec 4, 2025at DET30 − 44L
Nov 27, 2025vs KC31 − 28W
Nov 23, 2025vs PHI24 − 21W
Nov 17, 2025at LV33 − 16W
Nov 3, 2025vs ARI17 − 27L
Oct 26, 2025at DEN24 − 44L

NYG · Last 10

2−8 · streak W2
Jan 4vs DAL34 − 17W
Dec 28, 2025at LV34 − 10W
Dec 21, 2025vs MIN13 − 16L
Dec 14, 2025vs WSH21 − 29L
Dec 1, 2025at NE15 − 33L
Nov 23, 2025at DET27 − 34L
Nov 16, 2025vs GB20 − 27L
Nov 9, 2025at CHI20 − 24L
Nov 2, 2025vs SF24 − 34L
Oct 26, 2025at PHI20 − 38L