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Cowboys at Giants

NFL · Sunday, Jan 4 · 12:00 PM CT · MetLife Stadium · Final DAL 17 – NYG 34
← NFL / Jan 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL1000717
NYG61081034
Team box
DAL·NYG
286
total yards
380
143
passing yards
219
143
rushing yards
161
18
first downs
25
2-8
third downs
8-14
2
turnovers
1
26:53
time of possession
33:07
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Joe Milton IIIDAL7/137301
Jaxson DartNYG22/3223020
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jaydon BlueDAL16641
Tyrone Tracy Jr.NYG181030
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Ryan FlournoyDAL5680
Gunner OlszewskiNYG81020

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYG +17
DAL +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NYG 17 · DAL 4lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 57%, NYG 43% · Updated Jan 4

Expected margin
DAL by 2.7
Expected score
DAL 29.0 – 26.3 NYG
Expected total
55.3
CowboysThe matchupGiants
−131Our fair odds+131
29.0Expected points26.3
−0.29Power rating−0.80
28.4Points / game21.7
29.8Allowed / game26.4
399Total yards / game331
6.0Yards / play5.1
274Passing yards / game203
7−8−1Season record3−13
5−5Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · NYG chance
Our model fair56.8%43.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Cowboys−13157%————
NYGNew York Giants+13143%————
SpreadDAL by 2.7
DALDallas Cowboys−2.7our margin————
NYGNew York Giants+2.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 55.3
Over55.3our total————
Under55.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Dallas Cowboys by 2.7 expected
Dallas Cowboys by 38 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 37 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 36 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 35 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 34 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 33 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 32 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 31 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 30 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 29 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 28 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 27 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 26 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 25 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 24 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 23 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 22 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 21 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 20 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 19 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 18 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 17 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 16 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 15 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 14 points: 4%Dallas Cowboys by 13 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 12 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 11 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 10 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 9 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 8 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 7 points: 5%Dallas Cowboys by 6 points: 4%Dallas Cowboys by 5 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 4 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 3 points: 9%Dallas Cowboys by 2 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%New York Giants by 1 point: 2%New York Giants by 2 points: 3%New York Giants by 3 points: 7%New York Giants by 4 points: 2%New York Giants by 5 points: 2%New York Giants by 6 points: 4%New York Giants by 7 points: 3%New York Giants by 8 points: 2%New York Giants by 9 points: 1%New York Giants by 10 points: 1%New York Giants by 11 points: 1%New York Giants by 12 points: 1%New York Giants by 13 points: 1%New York Giants by 14 points: 1%New York Giants by 15 points: 1%New York Giants by 16 points: 1%New York Giants by 17 points: 2%New York Giants by 18 points: 1%New York Giants by 19 points: <1%New York Giants by 20 points: 1%New York Giants by 21 points: 1%New York Giants by 22 points: <1%New York Giants by 23 points: <1%New York Giants by 24 points: 1%New York Giants by 25 points: <1%New York Giants by 26 points: <1%New York Giants by 27 points: <1%New York Giants by 28 points: <1%New York Giants by 29 points: <1%New York Giants by 30 points: <1%New York Giants by 31 points: <1%New York Giants by 32 points: <1%New York Giants by 33 points: <1%New York Giants by 34 points: <1%New York Giants by 35 points: <1%New York Giants by 36 points: <1%New York Giants by 37 points: <1%New York Giants by 38 points: <1%
← DAL wins byNYG wins by →
Dallas Cowboys wins by 3 or more54%
Dallas Cowboys wins by 7 or more35%
Dallas Cowboys wins by 10 or more27%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

55.3 expected
19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: <1%27 points: <1%28 points: <1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 2%38 points: 1%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 2%44 points: 2%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 3%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 2%68 points: 2%69 points: 2%70 points: 1%71 points: 2%72 points: 1%73 points: 2%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: 1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 48.564%
Total over 55.548%
Total over 62.532%
Total from 49 to 6232%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
DALJoe Milton III · last 3 games: 73% completions, 37 yds/game, 1 TD, 1 INTstarted
NYGJaxson Dart · last 3 games: 62% completions, 162 yds/game, 2 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·NYG
Dec 25, 2025 at WSH
last game
Dec 28, 2025 at LV
9 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 16+ games
DAL·NYG
−0.29
rating (0 = average)
−0.80
28.4
points / game
21.7
29.8
points allowed / game
26.4
7−8−1
season record
3−13
4−3−1
home record
2−5
3−5
away record
1−8
W1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
1−9
399
total yards / game
331
6.0
yards / play
5.1
274
passing yards / game
203
125
rushing yards / game
127
23.4
first downs / game
20.1
1.2
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

DAL · NYG · 53 days
Dallas CowboysNew York Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · NYG 0−9
Sep 14, 2025at DALDAL 40 − 37
Nov 28, 2024at DALDAL 27 − 20
Sep 26, 2024at NYGDAL 20 − 15
Nov 12, 2023at DALDAL 49 − 17
Sep 10, 2023at NYGDAL 40 − 0
Nov 24, 2022at DALDAL 28 − 20
Sep 26, 2022at NYGDAL 23 − 16
Dec 19, 2021at NYGDAL 21 − 6
Oct 10, 2021at DALDAL 44 − 20

DAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Dec 25, 2025at WSH30 − 23W
Dec 21, 2025vs LAC17 − 34L
Dec 14, 2025vs MIN26 − 34L
Dec 4, 2025at DET30 − 44L
Nov 27, 2025vs KC31 − 28W
Nov 23, 2025vs PHI24 − 21W
Nov 17, 2025at LV33 − 16W
Nov 3, 2025vs ARI17 − 27L
Oct 26, 2025at DEN24 − 44L
Oct 19, 2025vs WSH44 − 22W

NYG · Last 10

1−9 · streak W1
Dec 28, 2025at LV34 − 10W
Dec 21, 2025vs MIN13 − 16L
Dec 14, 2025vs WSH21 − 29L
Dec 1, 2025at NE15 − 33L
Nov 23, 2025at DET27 − 34L
Nov 16, 2025vs GB20 − 27L
Nov 9, 2025at CHI20 − 24L
Nov 2, 2025vs SF24 − 34L
Oct 26, 2025at PHI20 − 38L
Oct 19, 2025at DEN32 − 33L