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Cowboys at Texans

NFL · Sunday, Oct 4 · 12:00 PM CT · Reliant Stadium · Final DAL 34 – HOU 30
← NFL / Oct 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL33141434
HOU1067730
Team box
DAL·HOU
399
total yards
397
324
passing yards
335
75
rushing yards
62
28
first downs
16
5-14
third downs
3-10
0
turnovers
0
33:27
time of possession
26:33
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Dak PrescottDAL32/4533510
C.J. StroudHOU21/3134720
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Javonte WilliamsDAL19623
David MontgomeryHOU10240
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
CeeDee LambDAL171891
Nico CollinsHOU71182

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +10
DAL +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 10 · DAL 4lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 38%, HOU 62% · Updated Oct 4

Expected margin
HOU by 3.9
Expected score
HOU 28.2 – 24.3 DAL
Expected total
52.5
CowboysThe matchupTexans
+164Our fair odds−164
24.3Expected points28.2
−0.21Power rating+0.08
29.3Points / game18.0
27.3Allowed / game25.0
330Total yards / game326
5.5Yards / play4.8
236Passing yards / game241
1−2Season record0−3
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · HOU chance
Our model fair37.8%62.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Cowboys+16438%————
HOUHouston Texans−16462%————
SpreadHOU by 3.9
DALDallas Cowboys+3.9our margin————
HOUHouston Texans−3.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 52.5
Over52.5our total————
Under52.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Texans by 3.9 expected
Dallas Cowboys by 43 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 42 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 41 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 40 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 39 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 38 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 37 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 36 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 35 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 34 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 33 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 32 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 31 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 30 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 29 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 28 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 27 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 26 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 25 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 24 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 23 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 22 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 21 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 20 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 19 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 18 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 17 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 16 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 15 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 14 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 13 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 12 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 11 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 10 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 9 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 8 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 7 points: 4%Dallas Cowboys by 6 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 5 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 4 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 3 points: 8%Dallas Cowboys by 2 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Houston Texans by 1 point: 2%Houston Texans by 2 points: 3%Houston Texans by 3 points: 7%Houston Texans by 4 points: 2%Houston Texans by 5 points: 2%Houston Texans by 6 points: 4%Houston Texans by 7 points: 4%Houston Texans by 8 points: 3%Houston Texans by 9 points: 1%Houston Texans by 10 points: 2%Houston Texans by 11 points: 1%Houston Texans by 12 points: 2%Houston Texans by 13 points: 2%Houston Texans by 14 points: 2%Houston Texans by 15 points: 1%Houston Texans by 16 points: 1%Houston Texans by 17 points: 3%Houston Texans by 18 points: 2%Houston Texans by 19 points: 1%Houston Texans by 20 points: 1%Houston Texans by 21 points: 1%Houston Texans by 22 points: 1%Houston Texans by 23 points: 1%Houston Texans by 24 points: 2%Houston Texans by 25 points: 1%Houston Texans by 26 points: 1%Houston Texans by 27 points: 1%Houston Texans by 28 points: 1%Houston Texans by 29 points: <1%Houston Texans by 30 points: <1%Houston Texans by 31 points: 1%Houston Texans by 32 points: <1%Houston Texans by 33 points: <1%Houston Texans by 34 points: 1%Houston Texans by 35 points: <1%Houston Texans by 36 points: <1%Houston Texans by 37 points: <1%Houston Texans by 38 points: <1%Houston Texans by 39 points: <1%Houston Texans by 40 points: <1%Houston Texans by 41 points: <1%Houston Texans by 42 points: <1%Houston Texans by 43 points: <1%
← DAL wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Texans wins by 3 or more54%
Houston Texans wins by 7 or more38%
Houston Texans wins by 10 or more30%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

52.5 expected
17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 45.566%
Total over 52.547%
Total over 59.532%
Total from 46 to 5934%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
DALDak Prescott · last 3 games: 70% completions, 243 yds/game, 7 TD, 1 INTstarted
HOUC.J. Stroud · last 3 games: 60% completions, 265 yds/game, 3 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·HOU
Sep 27 vs BAL
last game
Sep 27 at IND
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
DAL·HOU
−0.21
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
29.3
points / game
18.0
27.3
points allowed / game
25.0
1−2
season record
0−3
1−1
home record
0−2
0−1
away record
0−1
L1
streak
L3
4−6
last 10
6−4
330
total yards / game
326
5.5
yards / play
4.8
236
passing yards / game
241
94
rushing yards / game
85
22.7
first downs / game
21.7
0.7
turnovers / game
0.7

Rating Trend

DAL · HOU · 8 days
Dallas CowboysHouston Texans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · HOU 1−1
Nov 18, 2024at DALHOU 34 − 10
Dec 11, 2022at DALDAL 27 − 23

DAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Sep 27vs BAL31 − 34L
Sep 20vs WSH37 − 20W
Sep 13at NYG20 − 28L
Jan 4at NYG17 − 34L
Dec 25, 2025at WSH30 − 23W
Dec 21, 2025vs LAC17 − 34L
Dec 14, 2025vs MIN26 − 34L
Dec 4, 2025at DET30 − 44L
Nov 27, 2025vs KC31 − 28W
Nov 23, 2025vs PHI24 − 21W

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak L4
Sep 27at IND17 − 19L
Sep 20vs CIN6 − 20L
Sep 13vs BUF31 − 36L
Jan 18at NE16 − 28L
Jan 12at PIT30 − 6W
Jan 4vs IND38 − 30W
Dec 27, 2025at LAC20 − 16W
Dec 21, 2025vs LV23 − 21W
Dec 14, 2025vs ARI40 − 20W
Dec 7, 2025at KC20 − 10W