bayesRatings

Ravens at Cowboys

NFL · Sunday, Sep 27 · 3:25 PM CT · Maracanã Stadium · neutral site · Final BAL 34 – DAL 31
← NFL / Sep 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BAL71071034
DAL10381031
Team box
BAL·DAL
378
total yards
415
186
passing yards
267
192
rushing yards
148
23
first downs
27
3-9
third downs
5-13
0
turnovers
1
29:22
time of possession
30:38
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Lamar JacksonBAL15/2018620
Dak PrescottDAL25/4027610
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Derrick HenryBAL26892
Javonte WilliamsDAL19981
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Zay FlowersBAL5840
CeeDee LambDAL71120

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +11
BAL +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DAL 10 · BAL 11lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 58%, DAL 42% · Updated Sep 27

Expected margin
BAL by 5.1
Expected score
BAL 31.9 – 26.8 DAL
Expected total
58.8
RavensThe matchupCowboys
−137Our fair odds+137
31.9Expected points26.8
+0.14Power rating−0.20
29.0Points / game28.5
23.5Allowed / game24.0
409Total yards / game288
6.8Yards / play5.4
254Passing yards / game220
1−1Season record1−1
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · DAL chance
Our model fair57.9%42.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Ravens−13758%————
DALDallas Cowboys+13742%————
SpreadBAL by 5.1
BALBaltimore Ravens−5.1our margin————
DALDallas Cowboys+5.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 58.8
Over58.8our total————
Under58.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Baltimore Ravens by 5.1 expected
Baltimore Ravens by 40 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 39 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 38 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 37 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 36 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 35 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 34 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 33 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 32 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 31 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 30 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 29 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 28 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 27 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 26 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 25 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 24 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 23 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 22 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 21 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 20 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 19 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 18 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 17 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 16 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 15 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 14 points: 4%Baltimore Ravens by 13 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 12 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 11 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 10 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 9 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 8 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 7 points: 5%Baltimore Ravens by 6 points: 4%Baltimore Ravens by 5 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 4 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 3 points: 9%Baltimore Ravens by 2 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 1 point: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 2 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 3 points: 6%Dallas Cowboys by 4 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 5 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 6 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 7 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 8 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 9 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 10 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 11 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 12 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 13 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 14 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 15 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 16 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 17 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 18 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 19 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 20 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 21 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 22 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 23 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 24 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 25 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 26 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 27 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 28 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 29 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 30 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 31 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 32 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 33 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 34 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 35 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 36 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 37 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 38 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 39 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 40 points: <1%
← BAL wins byDAL wins by →
Baltimore Ravens wins by 3 or more61%
Baltimore Ravens wins by 7 or more42%
Baltimore Ravens wins by 10 or more34%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

58.8 expected
22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: <1%27 points: <1%28 points: <1%29 points: <1%30 points: 1%31 points: <1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 1%38 points: 1%39 points: 1%40 points: 1%41 points: 2%42 points: 1%43 points: 2%44 points: 2%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 3%67 points: 2%68 points: 2%69 points: 2%70 points: 2%71 points: 2%72 points: 2%73 points: 2%74 points: 2%75 points: 2%76 points: 2%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: 1%83 points: 1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: 1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: 1%90 points: 1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%97 points: <1%98 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 51.566%
Total over 58.550%
Total over 65.534%
Total from 52 to 6532%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
BALLamar Jackson · last 3 games: 66% completions, 266 yds/game, 5 TD, 2 INTstarted
DALDak Prescott · last 3 games: 72% completions, 175 yds/game, 6 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·DAL
Sep 20 vs NO
last game
Sep 20 vs WSH
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
BAL·DAL
+0.14
rating (0 = average)
−0.20
29.0
points / game
28.5
23.5
points allowed / game
24.0
1−1
season record
1−1
0−1
home record
1−0
1−0
away record
0−1
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
409
total yards / game
288
6.8
yards / play
5.4
254
passing yards / game
220
155
rushing yards / game
68
21.0
first downs / game
20.5
1.0
turnovers / game
0.5

Rating Trend

BAL · DAL · 5 days
Baltimore RavensDallas Cowboys
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · DAL 0−1
Sep 22, 2024at DALBAL 28 − 25

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Sep 20vs NO17 − 24L
Sep 13at IND41 − 23W
Jan 4at PIT24 − 26L
Dec 27, 2025at GB41 − 24W
Dec 21, 2025vs NE24 − 28L
Dec 14, 2025at CIN24 − 0W
Dec 7, 2025vs PIT22 − 27L
Nov 27, 2025vs CIN14 − 32L
Nov 23, 2025vs NYJ23 − 10W
Nov 16, 2025at CLE23 − 16W

DAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Sep 20vs WSH37 − 20W
Sep 13at NYG20 − 28L
Jan 4at NYG17 − 34L
Dec 25, 2025at WSH30 − 23W
Dec 21, 2025vs LAC17 − 34L
Dec 14, 2025vs MIN26 − 34L
Dec 4, 2025at DET30 − 44L
Nov 27, 2025vs KC31 − 28W
Nov 23, 2025vs PHI24 − 21W
Nov 17, 2025at LV33 − 16W