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Colts at Steelers

NFL · Sunday, Oct 11 · 12:00 PM CT · Acrisure Stadium · Final IND 22 – PIT 34
← NFL / Oct 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND676322
PIT71071034
Team box
IND·PIT
332
total yards
352
266
passing yards
225
66
rushing yards
127
19
first downs
16
4-15
third downs
4-11
0
turnovers
0
32:00
time of possession
28:00
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Daniel JonesIND24/4426700
Aaron RodgersPIT22/3123530
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jonathan TaylorIND15450
Jaylen WarrenPIT151011
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Tyler WarrenIND7830
Jaylen WarrenPIT6871

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +12
IND +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PIT 12 · IND 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 45%, PIT 55% · Updated Oct 11

Expected margin
IND by 0.5
Expected score
IND 24.6 – 24.1 PIT
Expected total
48.7
ColtsThe matchupSteelers
+123Our fair odds−123
24.6Expected points24.1
−0.02Power rating−0.02
25.5Points / game19.2
26.0Allowed / game21.8
284Total yards / game318
4.5Yards / play5.0
175Passing yards / game223
2−2Season record2−2
2−8Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · PIT chance
Our model fair44.9%55.1%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndianapolis Colts+12345%+13442.7%———
PITPittsburgh Steelers−12355%−16161.7%———
SpreadIND by 0.5
INDIndianapolis Colts−0.5our margin————
PITPittsburgh Steelers+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 48.7
Over48.7our total————
Under48.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Indianapolis Colts by 0.5 expected
Indianapolis Colts by 38 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 37 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 36 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 35 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 34 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 33 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 32 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 31 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 30 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 29 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 28 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 27 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 26 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 25 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 24 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 23 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 22 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 21 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 20 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 19 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 18 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 17 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 16 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 15 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 14 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 13 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 12 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 11 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 10 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 9 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 8 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 7 points: 5%Indianapolis Colts by 6 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 5 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 4 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 3 points: 9%Indianapolis Colts by 2 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 1 point: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 2 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 3 points: 7%Pittsburgh Steelers by 4 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 5 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 6 points: 4%Pittsburgh Steelers by 7 points: 4%Pittsburgh Steelers by 8 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 9 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 10 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 11 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 12 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 13 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 14 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 15 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 16 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 17 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 18 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 19 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 20 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 21 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 22 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 23 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 24 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 25 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 26 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 27 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 28 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 29 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 30 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 31 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 32 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 33 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 34 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 35 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 36 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 37 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 38 points: <1%
← IND wins byPIT wins by →
Indianapolis Colts wins by 3 or more48%
Indianapolis Colts wins by 7 or more29%
Indianapolis Colts wins by 10 or more22%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

48.7 expected
14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 41.567%
Total over 48.548%
Total over 55.531%
Total from 42 to 5536%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
INDDaniel Jones · last 3 games: 64% completions, 196 yds/game, 2 TD, 3 INTstarted
PITAaron Rodgers · last 3 games: 57% completions, 259 yds/game, 6 TD, 4 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·PIT
Oct 4 at WSH
last game
Oct 1 at CLE
6 days
days of rest
9 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
IND·PIT
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
25.5
points / game
19.2
26.0
points allowed / game
21.8
2−2
season record
2−2
1−1
home record
2−0
1−1
away record
0−2
W2
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
6−4
284
total yards / game
318
4.5
yards / play
5.0
175
passing yards / game
223
110
rushing yards / game
95
19.2
first downs / game
19.2
2.0
turnovers / game
1.5

Rating Trend

IND · PIT · 11 days
Indianapolis ColtsPittsburgh Steelers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 4 meetings · PIT 2−2
Nov 2, 2025at PITPIT 27 − 20
Sep 29, 2024at INDIND 27 − 24
Dec 16, 2023at INDIND 30 − 13
Nov 28, 2022at INDPIT 24 − 17

IND · Last 10

2−8 · streak W2
Oct 4at WSH30 − 13W
Sep 27vs HOU19 − 17W
Sep 20at KC30 − 33L
Sep 13vs BAL23 − 41L
Jan 4at HOU30 − 38L
Dec 28, 2025vs JAX17 − 23L
Dec 22, 2025vs SF27 − 48L
Dec 14, 2025at SEA16 − 18L
Dec 7, 2025at JAX19 − 36L
Nov 30, 2025vs HOU16 − 20L

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Oct 1at CLE24 − 27L
Sep 27vs CIN30 − 27W
Sep 20at NE3 − 20L
Sep 13vs ATL20 − 13W
Jan 12vs HOU6 − 30L
Jan 4vs BAL26 − 24W
Dec 28, 2025at CLE6 − 13L
Dec 21, 2025at DET29 − 24W
Dec 15, 2025vs MIA28 − 15W
Dec 7, 2025at BAL27 − 22W