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Colts at Commanders

NFL · Sunday, Oct 4 · 8:30 AM CT · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium · neutral site · Final IND 30 – WSH 13
← NFL / Oct 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND010101030
WSH607013
Team box
IND·WSH
257
total yards
317
129
passing yards
217
128
rushing yards
100
17
first downs
12
5-16
third downs
2-15
2
turnovers
1
30:40
time of possession
29:20
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Daniel JonesIND19/3414301
Athan KaliakmanisWSH15/3318611
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jonathan TaylorIND20952
Marcus MariotaWSH1350
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Laquon TreadwellIND5420
Dyami BrownWSH3650

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +17
IND +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: WSH 6 · IND 17lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 52%, WSH 48% · Updated Oct 4

Expected margin
IND by 2.6
Expected score
IND 30.2 – 27.6 WSH
Expected total
57.8
ColtsThe matchupCommanders
−110Our fair odds+110
30.2Expected points27.6
−0.12Power rating−0.22
24.0Points / game25.0
30.3Allowed / game30.7
293Total yards / game314
4.7Yards / play4.7
190Passing yards / game182
1−2Season record1−2
1−9Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · WSH chance
Our model fair52.5%47.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndianapolis Colts−11052%————
WSHWashington Commanders+11048%————
SpreadIND by 2.6
INDIndianapolis Colts−2.6our margin————
WSHWashington Commanders+2.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 57.8
Over57.8our total————
Under57.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Indianapolis Colts by 2.6 expected
Indianapolis Colts by 38 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 37 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 36 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 35 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 34 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 33 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 32 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 31 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 30 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 29 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 28 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 27 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 26 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 25 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 24 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 23 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 22 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 21 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 20 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 19 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 18 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 17 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 16 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 15 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 14 points: 4%Indianapolis Colts by 13 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 12 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 11 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 10 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 9 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 8 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 7 points: 5%Indianapolis Colts by 6 points: 4%Indianapolis Colts by 5 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 4 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 3 points: 9%Indianapolis Colts by 2 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Washington Commanders by 1 point: 2%Washington Commanders by 2 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 3 points: 7%Washington Commanders by 4 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 5 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 6 points: 4%Washington Commanders by 7 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 8 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 9 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 10 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 11 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 12 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 13 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 14 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 15 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 16 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 17 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 18 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 19 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 20 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 21 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 22 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 23 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 24 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 25 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 26 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 27 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 28 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 29 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 30 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 31 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 32 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 33 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 34 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 35 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 36 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 37 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 38 points: <1%
← IND wins byWSH wins by →
Indianapolis Colts wins by 3 or more54%
Indianapolis Colts wins by 7 or more35%
Indianapolis Colts wins by 10 or more27%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

57.8 expected
21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: <1%27 points: <1%28 points: <1%29 points: <1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 1%38 points: 1%39 points: 1%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 1%43 points: 2%44 points: 2%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 2%68 points: 2%69 points: 2%70 points: 2%71 points: 2%72 points: 2%73 points: 2%74 points: 2%75 points: 2%76 points: 2%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: 1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: 1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%97 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 50.566%
Total over 57.550%
Total over 64.534%
Total from 51 to 6432%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
INDDaniel Jones · last 3 games: 66% completions, 204 yds/game, 3 TD, 3 INTstarted
WSHAthan Kaliakmanis · no recent games on recordstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·WSH
Sep 27 vs HOU
last game
Sep 27 vs SEA
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
IND·WSH
−0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.22
24.0
points / game
25.0
30.3
points allowed / game
30.7
1−2
season record
1−2
1−1
home record
1−0
0−1
away record
0−2
W1
streak
W1
1−9
last 10
3−7
293
total yards / game
314
4.7
yards / play
4.7
190
passing yards / game
182
103
rushing yards / game
132
20.0
first downs / game
20.3
2.0
turnovers / game
0.3

Rating Trend

IND · WSH · 8 days
Indianapolis ColtsWashington Commanders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · WSH 1−0
Oct 30, 2022at INDWSH 17 − 16

IND · Last 10

1−9 · streak W1
Sep 27vs HOU19 − 17W
Sep 20at KC30 − 33L
Sep 13vs BAL23 − 41L
Jan 4at HOU30 − 38L
Dec 28, 2025vs JAX17 − 23L
Dec 22, 2025vs SF27 − 48L
Dec 14, 2025at SEA16 − 18L
Dec 7, 2025at JAX19 − 36L
Nov 30, 2025vs HOU16 − 20L
Nov 23, 2025at KC20 − 23L

WSH · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Sep 27vs SEA33 − 31W
Sep 20at DAL20 − 37L
Sep 13at PHI22 − 24L
Jan 4at PHI24 − 17W
Dec 25, 2025vs DAL23 − 30L
Dec 20, 2025vs PHI18 − 29L
Dec 14, 2025at NYG29 − 21W
Dec 7, 2025at MIN0 − 31L
Nov 30, 2025vs DEN26 − 27L
Nov 16, 2025at MIA13 − 16L