bayesRatings

Seahawks at Commanders

NFL · Sunday, Sep 27 · 12:00 PM CT · Northwest Stadium · Final SEA 31 – WSH 33
← NFL / Sep 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SEA01071431
WSH7107933
Team box
SEA·WSH
437
total yards
258
393
passing yards
176
44
rushing yards
82
28
first downs
17
3-9
third downs
3-13
3
turnovers
0
28:32
time of possession
31:28
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Sam DarnoldSEA31/4537942
Marcus MariotaWSH19/3118330
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jadarian PriceSEA5150
Jacory Croskey-MerrittWSH19360
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA101282
Terry McLaurinWSH6771

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +14
SEA +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: WSH 14 · SEA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 78%, WSH 22% · Updated Sep 27

Expected margin
SEA by 15.1
Expected score
SEA 30.5 – 15.4 WSH
Expected total
45.9
SeahawksThe matchupCommanders
−361Our fair odds+361
30.5Expected points15.4
+1.27Power rating−0.39
22.0Points / game21.0
8.5Allowed / game30.5
333Total yards / game342
5.8Yards / play5.1
204Passing yards / game185
2−0Season record0−2
10−0Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · WSH chance
Our model fair78.3%21.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Seahawks−36178%————
WSHWashington Commanders+36122%————
SpreadSEA by 15.1
SEASeattle Seahawks−15.1our margin————
WSHWashington Commanders+15.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 45.9
Over45.9our total————
Under45.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Seahawks by 15.1 expected
Seattle Seahawks by 40 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 39 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 38 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 37 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 36 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 35 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 34 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 33 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 32 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 31 points: 5%Seattle Seahawks by 30 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 29 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 28 points: 9%Seattle Seahawks by 27 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 26 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 25 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 24 points: 5%Seattle Seahawks by 23 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 22 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 21 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 20 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 19 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 18 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 17 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 16 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 15 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 14 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 13 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 12 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 11 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 10 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 9 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 8 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 7 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 6 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 5 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 4 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 3 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 2 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 1 point: 1%Tie: <1%Washington Commanders by 1 point: 1%Washington Commanders by 2 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 3 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 4 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 5 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 6 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 7 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 8 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 9 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 10 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 11 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 12 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 13 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 14 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 15 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 16 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 17 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 18 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 19 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 20 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 21 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 22 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 23 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 24 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 25 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 26 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 27 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 28 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 29 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 30 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 31 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 32 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 33 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 34 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 35 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 36 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 37 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 38 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 39 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 40 points: <1%
← SEA wins byWSH wins by →
Seattle Seahawks wins by 3 or more77%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 7 or more70%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 10 or more66%
Within 3 points either way9%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

45.9 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 38.568%
Total over 45.548%
Total over 52.530%
Total from 39 to 5238%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
SEASam Darnold · last 3 games: 59% completions, 187 yds/game, 4 TD, 0 INTstarted
WSHMarcus Mariota · last 3 games: 57% completions, 139 yds/game, 2 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·WSH
Sep 20 at ARI
last game
Sep 20 at DAL
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
SEA·WSH
+1.27
rating (0 = average)
−0.39
22.0
points / game
21.0
8.5
points allowed / game
30.5
2−0
season record
0−2
1−0
home record
0−0
1−0
away record
0−2
W2
streak
L2
10−0
last 10
2−8
333
total yards / game
342
5.8
yards / play
5.1
204
passing yards / game
185
130
rushing yards / game
157
18.0
first downs / game
22.0
0.5
turnovers / game
0.5

Rating Trend

SEA · WSH · 5 days
Seattle SeahawksWashington Commanders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · WSH 1−2
Nov 2, 2025at WSHSEA 38 − 14
Nov 12, 2023at SEASEA 29 − 26
Nov 29, 2021at WSHWSH 17 − 15

SEA · Last 10

10−0 · streak W10
Sep 20at ARI31 − 7W
Sep 9vs NE13 − 10W
Feb 8at NE29 − 13W
Jan 25vs LAR31 − 27W
Jan 17vs SF41 − 6W
Jan 3at SF13 − 3W
Dec 28, 2025at CAR27 − 10W
Dec 18, 2025vs LAR38 − 37W
Dec 14, 2025vs IND18 − 16W
Dec 7, 2025at ATL37 − 9W

WSH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Sep 20at DAL20 − 37L
Sep 13at PHI22 − 24L
Jan 4at PHI24 − 17W
Dec 25, 2025vs DAL23 − 30L
Dec 20, 2025vs PHI18 − 29L
Dec 14, 2025at NYG29 − 21W
Dec 7, 2025at MIN0 − 31L
Nov 30, 2025vs DEN26 − 27L
Nov 16, 2025at MIA13 − 16L
Nov 9, 2025vs DET22 − 44L