bayesRatings

Seahawks at Cardinals

NFL · Sunday, Sep 20 · 3:25 PM CT · State Farm Stadium · Final SEA 31 – ARI 7
← NFL / Sep 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SEA70101431
ARI07007
Team box
SEA·ARI
381
total yards
151
219
passing yards
81
162
rushing yards
70
23
first downs
10
6-13
third downs
3-12
1
turnovers
1
36:33
time of possession
23:27
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Drew LockSEA19/2623530
Jacoby BrissettARI17/289511
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Emanuel WilsonSEA21920
Jeremiyah LoveARI9290
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA91553
Trey McBrideARI8411

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +24
SEA +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ARI 0 · SEA 24lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 70%, ARI 30% · Updated Sep 20

Expected margin
SEA by 12.6
Expected score
SEA 28.6 – 15.9 ARI
Expected total
44.5
SeahawksThe matchupCardinals
−233Our fair odds+233
28.6Expected points15.9
+0.96Power rating−0.24
13.0Points / game26.0
10.0Allowed / game14.0
285Total yards / game393
5.9Yards / play5.5
188Passing yards / game277
1−0Season record1−0
10−0Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · ARI chance
Our model fair70.0%30.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Seahawks−23370%————
ARIArizona Cardinals+23330%————
SpreadSEA by 12.6
SEASeattle Seahawks−12.6our margin————
ARIArizona Cardinals+12.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 44.5
Over44.5our total————
Under44.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Seahawks by 12.6 expected
Seattle Seahawks by 40 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 39 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 38 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 37 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 36 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 35 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 34 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 33 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 32 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 31 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 30 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 29 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 28 points: 6%Seattle Seahawks by 27 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 26 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 25 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 24 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 23 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 22 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 21 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 20 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 19 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 18 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 17 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 16 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 15 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 14 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 13 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 12 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 11 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 10 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 9 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 8 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 7 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 6 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 5 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 4 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 3 points: 5%Seattle Seahawks by 2 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 1 point: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 2 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 3 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 4 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 5 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 6 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 7 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 8 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 9 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 10 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 11 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 12 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 13 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 14 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 15 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 16 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 17 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 18 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 19 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 20 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 21 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 22 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 23 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 24 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 25 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 26 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 27 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 28 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 29 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 30 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 31 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 32 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 33 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 34 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 35 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 36 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 37 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 38 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 39 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 40 points: <1%
← SEA wins byARI wins by →
Seattle Seahawks wins by 3 or more75%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 7 or more64%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 10 or more59%
Within 3 points either way14%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

44.5 expected
10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 37.568%
Total over 44.547%
Total over 51.529%
Total from 38 to 5139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
SEADrew Lock · last 3 games: 74% completions, 113 yds/game, 2 TD, 1 INTstarted
ARIJacoby Brissett · last 3 games: 67% completions, 244 yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·ARI
Sep 9 vs NE
last game
Sep 13 at LAC
10 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
SEA·ARI
+0.96
rating (0 = average)
−0.24
13.0
points / game
26.0
10.0
points allowed / game
14.0
1−0
season record
1−0
1−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
1−0
W1
streak
W1
10−0
last 10
1−9
285
total yards / game
393
5.9
yards / play
5.5
188
passing yards / game
277
97
rushing yards / game
116
13.0
first downs / game
23.0
0.0
turnovers / game
0.0

Rating Trend

SEA · ARI · 2 days
Seattle SeahawksArizona Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 1−9
Nov 9, 2025at SEASEA 44 − 22
Sep 25, 2025at ARISEA 23 − 20
Dec 8, 2024at ARISEA 30 − 18
Nov 24, 2024at SEASEA 16 − 6
Jan 7, 2024at ARISEA 21 − 20
Oct 22, 2023at SEASEA 20 − 10
Nov 6, 2022at ARISEA 31 − 21
Oct 16, 2022at SEASEA 19 − 9
Jan 9, 2022at ARISEA 38 − 30
Nov 21, 2021at SEAARI 23 − 13

SEA · Last 10

10−0 · streak W10
Sep 9vs NE13 − 10W
Feb 8at NE29 − 13W
Jan 25vs LAR31 − 27W
Jan 17vs SF41 − 6W
Jan 3at SF13 − 3W
Dec 28, 2025at CAR27 − 10W
Dec 18, 2025vs LAR38 − 37W
Dec 14, 2025vs IND18 − 16W
Dec 7, 2025at ATL37 − 9W
Nov 30, 2025vs MIN26 − 0W

ARI · Last 10

1−9 · streak W1
Sep 13at LAC26 − 14W
Jan 4at LAR20 − 37L
Dec 28, 2025at CIN14 − 37L
Dec 21, 2025vs ATL19 − 26L
Dec 14, 2025at HOU20 − 40L
Dec 7, 2025vs LAR17 − 45L
Nov 30, 2025at TB17 − 20L
Nov 23, 2025vs JAX24 − 27L
Nov 16, 2025vs SF22 − 41L
Nov 9, 2025at SEA22 − 44L