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Lions at Panthers

NFL · Sunday, Oct 4 · 7:20 PM CT · Bank of America Stadium · Final DET 26 – CAR 32
← NFL / Oct 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DET3133726
CAR7913332
Team box
DET·CAR
452
total yards
445
406
passing yards
318
46
rushing yards
127
24
first downs
28
4-12
third downs
5-12
0
turnovers
0
26:45
time of possession
33:15
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jared GoffDET32/5241210
Bryce YoungCAR29/4132920
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jahmyr GibbsDET15461
Chuba HubbardCAR201222
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Jameson WilliamsDET61020
Tetairoa McMillanCAR141922

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CAR +13
DET +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CAR 13 · DET 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 55%, CAR 45% · Updated Oct 4

Expected margin
DET by 6.7
Expected score
DET 32.9 – 26.2 CAR
Expected total
59.1
LionsThe matchupPanthers
−123Our fair odds+123
32.9Expected points26.2
+0.23Power rating−0.23
31.0Points / game29.7
31.7Allowed / game27.7
368Total yards / game393
5.6Yards / play6.1
248Passing yards / game296
2−1Season record1−2
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · CAR chance
Our model fair55.2%44.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Lions−12355%————
CARCarolina Panthers+12345%————
SpreadDET by 6.7
DETDetroit Lions−6.7our margin————
CARCarolina Panthers+6.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 59.1
Over59.1our total————
Under59.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Lions by 6.7 expected
Detroit Lions by 40 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 39 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 38 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 37 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 36 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 35 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 34 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 33 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 32 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 31 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 30 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 29 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 28 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 27 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 26 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 25 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 24 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 23 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 22 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 21 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 20 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 19 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 18 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 17 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 16 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 15 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 14 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 13 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 12 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 11 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 10 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 9 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 8 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 7 points: 5%Detroit Lions by 6 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 5 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 4 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 3 points: 8%Detroit Lions by 2 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Carolina Panthers by 1 point: 2%Carolina Panthers by 2 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 3 points: 6%Carolina Panthers by 4 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 5 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 6 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 7 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 8 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 9 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 10 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 11 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 12 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 13 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 14 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 15 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 16 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 17 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 18 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 19 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 20 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 21 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 22 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 23 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 24 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 25 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 26 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 27 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 28 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 29 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 30 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 31 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 32 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 33 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 34 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 35 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 36 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 37 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 38 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 39 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 40 points: <1%
← DET wins byCAR wins by →
Detroit Lions wins by 3 or more65%
Detroit Lions wins by 7 or more47%
Detroit Lions wins by 10 or more39%
Within 3 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

59.1 expected
22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: <1%27 points: <1%28 points: <1%29 points: <1%30 points: <1%31 points: <1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 1%38 points: 1%39 points: 1%40 points: 1%41 points: 1%42 points: 1%43 points: 2%44 points: 2%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 3%67 points: 2%68 points: 2%69 points: 2%70 points: 2%71 points: 2%72 points: 2%73 points: 2%74 points: 2%75 points: 2%76 points: 2%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: 1%83 points: 1%84 points: 1%85 points: <1%86 points: 1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: 1%90 points: 1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%97 points: <1%98 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 52.564%
Total over 59.549%
Total over 66.532%
Total from 53 to 6632%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
DETJared Goff · last 3 games: 71% completions, 267 yds/game, 8 TD, 0 INTstarted
CARBryce Young · last 3 games: 60% completions, 313 yds/game, 7 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·CAR
Sep 27 vs NYJ
last game
Sep 27 at CLE
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
DET·CAR
+0.23
rating (0 = average)
−0.23
31.0
points / game
29.7
31.7
points allowed / game
27.7
2−1
season record
1−2
2−0
home record
0−1
0−1
away record
1−1
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
3−7
368
total yards / game
393
5.6
yards / play
6.1
248
passing yards / game
296
121
rushing yards / game
97
24.7
first downs / game
22.0
0.3
turnovers / game
1.3

Rating Trend

DET · CAR · 8 days
Detroit LionsCarolina Panthers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · CAR 1−1
Oct 8, 2023at DETDET 42 − 24
Dec 24, 2022at CARCAR 37 − 23

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Sep 27vs NYJ31 − 24W
Sep 17at BUF31 − 41L
Sep 13vs NO31 − 30W
Jan 4at CHI19 − 16W
Dec 25, 2025at MIN10 − 23L
Dec 21, 2025vs PIT24 − 29L
Dec 14, 2025at LAR34 − 41L
Dec 4, 2025vs DAL44 − 30W
Nov 27, 2025vs GB24 − 31L
Nov 23, 2025vs NYG34 − 27W

CAR · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Sep 27at CLE18 − 21L
Sep 20at ATL34 − 3W
Sep 13vs CHI37 − 59L
Jan 10vs LAR31 − 34L
Jan 3at TB14 − 16L
Dec 28, 2025vs SEA10 − 27L
Dec 21, 2025vs TB23 − 20W
Dec 14, 2025at NO17 − 20L
Nov 30, 2025vs LAR31 − 28W
Nov 24, 2025at SF9 − 20L