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Eagles at Commanders

NFL · Sunday, Nov 1 · 7:20 PM CT · Northwest Stadium · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 1

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
WSH by 4.6
Expected score
WSH 23.1 – 18.5 PHI
Expected total
41.5
EaglesThe matchupCommanders
+198Our fair odds−198
18.5Expected points23.1
−0.15Power rating−0.53
18.1Points / game22.0
25.0Allowed / game28.7
265Total yards / game325
4.5Yards / play5.1
177Passing yards / game200
2−5Season record1−4−1
3−7Last 103−6−1
Britain Covey WR · DeVonta Smith WR
Dontayvion Wicks WR · Jihaad Campbell LB
Jonathan Jones CBOut (5 each)Javon Kinlaw DT · Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB
Javontae Jean-Baptiste LB · Jaylin Lane WR
Jer'Zhan Newton DT

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · WSH chance
Our model fair33.5%66.5%
Kalshi31.5%71.5%
Polymarket US31.2%71.9%
ProphetX32.2%70.7%
Novig30.5%70.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi4:18 AM CTPolymarket US4:17 AM CTProphetX4:17 AM CTNovig4:14 AM CT
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles+19834%+21831.5%+22031.2%+21132.2%+22830.5%
WSHWashington Commanders−19866%−25171.5%−25671.9%−24270.7%−23370.0%
SpreadWSH by 4.6
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles+4.6our margin+6.5 −11653.7%+6.5 −11653.7%+6.5 −11553.6%+6.5 −11152.5%
WSHWashington Commanders−4.6our margin−6.5 −10350.7%−6.5 −10150.2%−6.5 +10349.3%−6.5 +10648.5%
Totalwe expect 41.5
Over41.5our totalo40.5 −10350.7%o40.5 −10350.7%o40.5 +10349.3%o40.5 +10449.0%
Under41.5our totalu40.5 −11653.7%u40.5 −11453.2%u40.5 −11553.6%u40.5 −11152.5%

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Washington Commanders by 4.6 expected
Philadelphia Eagles by 44 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 43 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 25 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 24 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 23 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 22 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 20 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 19 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 17 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 15 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 14 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 13 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 12 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 11 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 10 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 9 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 8 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 7 points: 4%Philadelphia Eagles by 6 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 5 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 4 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 3 points: 7%Philadelphia Eagles by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Washington Commanders by 1 point: 2%Washington Commanders by 2 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 3 points: 7%Washington Commanders by 4 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 5 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 6 points: 4%Washington Commanders by 7 points: 4%Washington Commanders by 8 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 9 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 10 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 11 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 12 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 13 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 14 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 15 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 16 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 17 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 18 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 19 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 20 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 21 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 22 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 23 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 24 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 25 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 26 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 27 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 28 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 29 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 30 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 31 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 32 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 33 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 34 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 35 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 36 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 37 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 38 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 39 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 40 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 41 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 42 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 43 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 44 points: <1%
← PHI wins byWSH wins by →
Washington Commanders wins by 3 or more56%
Washington Commanders wins by 7 or more40%
Washington Commanders wins by 10 or more32%
Within 3 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

41.5 expected
8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 34.569%
Total over 41.548%
Total over 48.529%
Total from 35 to 4840%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
PHITanner McKee · last 3 games: 58% completions, 222 yds/game, 3 TD, 2 INTdepth chart
WSHJayden Daniels · last 3 games: 70% completions, 198 yds/game, 3 TD, 0 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·WSH
Oct 26 vs DAL
last game
Oct 19 at SF
5 days
days of rest
12 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Philadelphia Eagles
PHIBritain Covey WR · knee, back about Nov 8Out
PHIDeVonta Smith WR · hamstring, back about Nov 8Out
PHIDontayvion Wicks WR · ankle, back about Nov 8Out
PHIJihaad Campbell LB · hamstring, back about Nov 8Out
PHIJonathan Jones CB · hamstring, back about Nov 8Out
PHILane Johnson OT · personal, back about Feb 15, 2027Out
PHITucker Large S · undisclosed, back about Feb 15, 2027Out
PHIChance Campbell LB · undisclosedQuestionable
PHITariq Castro-Fields CBQuestionable
PHIAndre' Sam S · left foot, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
and 6 more
Washington Commanders
WSHJavon Kinlaw DT · knee, back about Nov 8Out
WSHCharles Omenihu DE · groin, back about Nov 1Questionable
WSHJohn Bates TE · shoulder, back about Nov 1Questionable
WSHNick Allegretti G · back, back about Nov 1Questionable
WSHTreylon Burks WR · foot, back about Nov 1Questionable
WSHJacory Croskey-Merritt RB · groin, back about Nov 23IR
WSHJavontae Jean-Baptiste LB · pectoral, back about Nov 23IR
WSHJaylin Lane WR · left ankle surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
WSHJer'Zhan Newton DT · pectoral surgery, back about Nov 1IR
WSHLaremy Tunsil OT · right triceps surgery, back about Dec 20IR
and 2 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
PHI·WSH
−0.15
rating (0 = average)
−0.53
18.1
points / game
22.0
25.0
points allowed / game
28.7
2−5
season record
1−4−1
1−3
home record
1−1−1
1−2
away record
0−3
L5
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
3−6−1
265
total yards / game
325
4.5
yards / play
5.1
177
passing yards / game
200
88
rushing yards / game
125
16.0
first downs / game
18.7
0.9
turnovers / game
0.3

Rating Trend

PHI · WSH · 30 days
Philadelphia EaglesWashington Commanders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 3−7
Sep 13at PHIPHI 24 − 22
Jan 4at PHIWSH 24 − 17
Dec 20, 2025at WSHPHI 29 − 18
Jan 26, 2025at PHIPHI 55 − 23post
Dec 22, 2024at WSHWSH 36 − 33
Nov 14, 2024at PHIPHI 26 − 18
Oct 29, 2023at WSHPHI 38 − 31
Oct 1, 2023at PHIPHI 34 − 31
Nov 14, 2022at PHIWSH 32 − 21
Sep 25, 2022at WSHPHI 24 − 8

PHI · Last 10

3−7 · streak L5
Oct 26vs DAL21 − 38L
Oct 18vs CAR14 − 25L
Oct 11at JAX17 − 19L
Oct 4vs LAR20 − 24L
Sep 28at CHI7 − 27L
Sep 20at TEN24 − 20W
Sep 13vs WSH24 − 22W
Jan 11vs SF19 − 23L
Jan 4vs WSH17 − 24L
Dec 28, 2025at BUF13 − 12W

WSH · Last 10

3−6−1 · streak L1
Oct 19at SF17 − 23L
Oct 11vs NYG27 − 27T
Oct 4vs IND13 − 30L
Sep 27vs SEA33 − 31W
Sep 20at DAL20 − 37L
Sep 13at PHI22 − 24L
Jan 4at PHI24 − 17W
Dec 25, 2025vs DAL23 − 30L
Dec 20, 2025vs PHI18 − 29L
Dec 14, 2025at NYG29 − 21W