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Giants at Commanders

NFL · Sunday, Oct 11 · 12:00 PM CT · Northwest Stadium · Final NYG 27 – WSH 27
← NFL / Oct 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
NYG301014027
WSH6678027
Team box
NYG·WSH
408
total yards
378
305
passing yards
176
103
rushing yards
202
29
first downs
20
8-17
third downs
4-12
2
turnovers
0
39:25
time of possession
30:35
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jameis WinstonNYG33/5432630
Jayden DanielsWSH17/2519900
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Cam SkatteboNYG13590
Jayden DanielsWSH91032
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Malik NabersNYG111211
Terry McLaurinWSH4620

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +14
NYG +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: WSH 14 · NYG 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYG 48%, WSH 52% · Updated Oct 11

Expected margin
NYG by 3.3
Expected score
NYG 26.0 – 22.8 WSH
Expected total
48.8
GiantsThe matchupCommanders
+109Our fair odds−109
26.0Expected points22.8
−0.23Power rating−0.36
20.5Points / game22.0
19.8Allowed / game30.5
283Total yards / game315
4.6Yards / play4.8
173Passing yards / game191
3−1Season record1−3
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYG chance · WSH chance
Our model fair47.8%52.2%
Kalshi39.6%64.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYGNew York Giants+10948%+15239.6%———
WSHWashington Commanders−10952%−18364.6%———
SpreadNYG by 3.3
NYGNew York Giants−3.3our margin————
WSHWashington Commanders+3.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 48.8
Over48.8our total————
Under48.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Giants by 3.3 expected
New York Giants by 39 points: <1%New York Giants by 38 points: <1%New York Giants by 37 points: <1%New York Giants by 36 points: <1%New York Giants by 35 points: <1%New York Giants by 34 points: <1%New York Giants by 33 points: <1%New York Giants by 32 points: <1%New York Giants by 31 points: 1%New York Giants by 30 points: <1%New York Giants by 29 points: <1%New York Giants by 28 points: 1%New York Giants by 27 points: <1%New York Giants by 26 points: <1%New York Giants by 25 points: 1%New York Giants by 24 points: 2%New York Giants by 23 points: 1%New York Giants by 22 points: 1%New York Giants by 21 points: 2%New York Giants by 20 points: 1%New York Giants by 19 points: 1%New York Giants by 18 points: 1%New York Giants by 17 points: 3%New York Giants by 16 points: 1%New York Giants by 15 points: 1%New York Giants by 14 points: 4%New York Giants by 13 points: 1%New York Giants by 12 points: 1%New York Giants by 11 points: 1%New York Giants by 10 points: 3%New York Giants by 9 points: 1%New York Giants by 8 points: 2%New York Giants by 7 points: 5%New York Giants by 6 points: 4%New York Giants by 5 points: 3%New York Giants by 4 points: 3%New York Giants by 3 points: 9%New York Giants by 2 points: 2%New York Giants by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Washington Commanders by 1 point: 2%Washington Commanders by 2 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 3 points: 7%Washington Commanders by 4 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 5 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 6 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 7 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 8 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 9 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 10 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 11 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 12 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 13 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 14 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 15 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 16 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 17 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 18 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 19 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 20 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 21 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 22 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 23 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 24 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 25 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 26 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 27 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 28 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 29 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 30 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 31 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 32 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 33 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 34 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 35 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 36 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 37 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 38 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 39 points: <1%
← NYG wins byWSH wins by →
New York Giants wins by 3 or more56%
New York Giants wins by 7 or more37%
New York Giants wins by 10 or more29%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

48.8 expected
14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 41.567%
Total over 48.548%
Total over 55.531%
Total from 42 to 5536%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NYGJameis Winston · last 3 games: 55% completions, 160 yds/game, 3 TD, 3 INTstarted
WSHJayden Daniels · last 3 games: 54% completions, 113 yds/game, 3 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYG·WSH
Oct 4 vs ARI
last game
Oct 4 vs IND
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
NYG·WSH
−0.23
rating (0 = average)
−0.36
20.5
points / game
22.0
19.8
points allowed / game
30.5
3−1
season record
1−3
3−0
home record
1−1
0−1
away record
0−2
W2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
3−7
283
total yards / game
315
4.6
yards / play
4.8
173
passing yards / game
191
110
rushing yards / game
124
18.2
first downs / game
18.2
1.2
turnovers / game
0.5

Rating Trend

NYG · WSH · 11 days
New York GiantsWashington Commanders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 7−3
Dec 14, 2025at NYGWSH 29 − 21
Sep 7, 2025at WSHWSH 21 − 6
Nov 3, 2024at NYGWSH 27 − 22
Sep 15, 2024at WSHWSH 21 − 18
Nov 19, 2023at WSHNYG 31 − 19
Oct 22, 2023at NYGNYG 14 − 7
Dec 18, 2022at WSHNYG 20 − 12
Dec 4, 2022at NYGWSH 20 − 20
Jan 9, 2022at NYGWSH 22 − 7
Sep 16, 2021at WSHWSH 30 − 29

NYG · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Oct 4vs ARI36 − 24W
Sep 27vs TEN12 − 7W
Sep 21at LAR6 − 28L
Sep 13vs DAL28 − 20W
Jan 4vs DAL34 − 17W
Dec 28, 2025at LV34 − 10W
Dec 21, 2025vs MIN13 − 16L
Dec 14, 2025vs WSH21 − 29L
Dec 1, 2025at NE15 − 33L
Nov 23, 2025at DET27 − 34L

WSH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Oct 4vs IND13 − 30L
Sep 27vs SEA33 − 31W
Sep 20at DAL20 − 37L
Sep 13at PHI22 − 24L
Jan 4at PHI24 − 17W
Dec 25, 2025vs DAL23 − 30L
Dec 20, 2025vs PHI18 − 29L
Dec 14, 2025at NYG29 − 21W
Dec 7, 2025at MIN0 − 31L
Nov 30, 2025vs DEN26 − 27L