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Giants at Rams

NFL · Monday, Sep 21 · 7:15 PM CT · SoFi Stadium · Final NYG 6 – LAR 28
← NFL / Sep 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NYG03306
LAR777728
Team box
NYG·LAR
182
total yards
481
130
passing yards
318
52
rushing yards
163
11
first downs
23
3-14
third downs
5-9
1
turnovers
2
27:25
time of possession
32:35
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jameis WinstonNYG11/2711101
Matthew StaffordLAR22/3132741
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Cam SkatteboNYG12360
Kyren WilliamsLAR12850
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Darnell MooneyNYG2480
Davante AdamsLAR81952

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAR +22
NYG +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAR 22 · NYG 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYG 32%, LAR 68% · Updated Sep 21

Expected margin
LAR by 8.2
Expected score
LAR 29.0 – 20.9 NYG
Expected total
49.9
GiantsThe matchupRams
+214Our fair odds−214
20.9Expected points29.0
−0.24Power rating+0.35
28.0Points / game7.0
20.0Allowed / game27.0
394Total yards / game290
5.8Yards / play5.1
229Passing yards / game168
1−0Season record0−1
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYG chance · LAR chance
Our model fair31.9%68.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYGNew York Giants+21432%————
LARLos Angeles Rams−21468%————
SpreadLAR by 8.2
NYGNew York Giants+8.2our margin————
LARLos Angeles Rams−8.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 49.9
Over49.9our total————
Under49.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Rams by 8.2 expected
New York Giants by 47 points: <1%New York Giants by 46 points: <1%New York Giants by 45 points: <1%New York Giants by 44 points: <1%New York Giants by 43 points: <1%New York Giants by 42 points: <1%New York Giants by 41 points: <1%New York Giants by 40 points: <1%New York Giants by 39 points: <1%New York Giants by 38 points: <1%New York Giants by 37 points: <1%New York Giants by 36 points: <1%New York Giants by 35 points: <1%New York Giants by 34 points: <1%New York Giants by 33 points: <1%New York Giants by 32 points: <1%New York Giants by 31 points: <1%New York Giants by 30 points: <1%New York Giants by 29 points: <1%New York Giants by 28 points: <1%New York Giants by 27 points: <1%New York Giants by 26 points: <1%New York Giants by 25 points: <1%New York Giants by 24 points: <1%New York Giants by 23 points: <1%New York Giants by 22 points: <1%New York Giants by 21 points: <1%New York Giants by 20 points: <1%New York Giants by 19 points: <1%New York Giants by 18 points: <1%New York Giants by 17 points: 1%New York Giants by 16 points: 1%New York Giants by 15 points: <1%New York Giants by 14 points: 2%New York Giants by 13 points: <1%New York Giants by 12 points: <1%New York Giants by 11 points: <1%New York Giants by 10 points: 2%New York Giants by 9 points: <1%New York Giants by 8 points: 1%New York Giants by 7 points: 3%New York Giants by 6 points: 2%New York Giants by 5 points: 2%New York Giants by 4 points: 2%New York Giants by 3 points: 6%New York Giants by 2 points: 1%New York Giants by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 2 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 3 points: 7%Los Angeles Rams by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 6 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 7 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 17 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 18 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 20 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 21 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 24 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 29 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 30 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 31 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 32 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 34 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 35 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 36 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 37 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 38 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 46 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 47 points: <1%
← NYG wins byLAR wins by →
Los Angeles Rams wins by 3 or more66%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 7 or more51%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 10 or more42%
Within 3 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

49.9 expected
15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 2%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 42.568%
Total over 49.548%
Total over 56.532%
Total from 43 to 5636%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NYGJameis Winston · last 3 games: 56% completions, 189 yds/game, 2 TD, 2 INTstarted
LARMatthew Stafford · last 3 games: 56% completions, 262 yds/game, 3 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYG·LAR
Sep 13 vs DAL
last game
Sep 10 vs SF
7 days
days of rest
10 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
NYG·LAR
−0.24
rating (0 = average)
+0.35
28.0
points / game
7.0
20.0
points allowed / game
27.0
1−0
season record
0−1
1−0
home record
0−1
0−0
away record
0−0
W1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
5−5
394
total yards / game
290
5.8
yards / play
5.1
229
passing yards / game
168
165
rushing yards / game
122
29.0
first downs / game
15.0
1.0
turnovers / game
2.0

Rating Trend

NYG · LAR · 3 days
New York GiantsLos Angeles Rams
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · LAR 2−0
Dec 31, 2023at NYGLAR 26 − 25
Oct 17, 2021at NYGLAR 38 − 11

NYG · Last 10

3−7 · streak W3
Sep 13vs DAL28 − 20W
Jan 4vs DAL34 − 17W
Dec 28, 2025at LV34 − 10W
Dec 21, 2025vs MIN13 − 16L
Dec 14, 2025vs WSH21 − 29L
Dec 1, 2025at NE15 − 33L
Nov 23, 2025at DET27 − 34L
Nov 16, 2025vs GB20 − 27L
Nov 9, 2025at CHI20 − 24L
Nov 2, 2025vs SF24 − 34L

LAR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Sep 10vs SF7 − 27L
Jan 25at SEA27 − 31L
Jan 18at CHI20 − 17W
Jan 10at CAR34 − 31W
Jan 4vs ARI37 − 20W
Dec 29, 2025at ATL24 − 27L
Dec 18, 2025at SEA37 − 38L
Dec 14, 2025vs DET41 − 34W
Dec 7, 2025at ARI45 − 17W
Nov 30, 2025at CAR28 − 31L