bayesRatings

49ers at Rams

NFL · Thursday, Sep 10 · 7:35 PM CT · Melbourne Cricket Ground · neutral site · Final SF 27 – LAR 7
← NFL / Sep 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SF3771027
LAR07007
Team box
SF·LAR
379
total yards
290
205
passing yards
168
174
rushing yards
122
23
first downs
15
7-12
third downs
2-9
1
turnovers
2
33:50
time of possession
26:10
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Brock PurdySF25/3420531
Matthew StaffordLAR15/2515501
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Christian McCaffreySF10680
Blake CorumLAR10540
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Demarcus RobinsonSF2501
Puka NacuaLAR5740

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAR +20
SF +20
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAR 4 · SF 20lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 36%, LAR 64% · Updated Sep 10

Expected margin
LAR by 5.7
Expected score
LAR 29.2 – 23.5 SF
Expected total
52.7
49ersThe matchupRams
+174Our fair odds−174
23.5Expected points29.2
+0.40Power rating+0.98
0−0Season record0−0
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · LAR chance
Our model fair36.5%63.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco 49ers+17436%————
LARLos Angeles Rams−17464%————
SpreadLAR by 5.7
SFSan Francisco 49ers+5.7our margin————
LARLos Angeles Rams−5.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 52.7
Over52.7our total————
Under52.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Rams by 5.7 expected
San Francisco 49ers by 45 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 44 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 43 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 42 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 41 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 40 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 39 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 38 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 37 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 36 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 35 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 34 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 33 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 32 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 31 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 30 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 29 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 28 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 27 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 26 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 25 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 24 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 23 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 22 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 21 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 20 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 19 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 18 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 17 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 16 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 15 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 14 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 13 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 12 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 11 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 10 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 9 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 8 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 7 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 6 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 5 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 4 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 3 points: 7%San Francisco 49ers by 2 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 2 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 3 points: 7%Los Angeles Rams by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 6 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 7 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 17 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 18 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 21 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 24 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 31 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 32 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 34 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 35 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 45 points: <1%
← SF wins byLAR wins by →
Los Angeles Rams wins by 3 or more59%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 7 or more43%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 10 or more35%
Within 3 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

52.7 expected
17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 45.566%
Total over 52.548%
Total over 59.532%
Total from 46 to 5934%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
SFBrock Purdy · last 3 games: 61% completions, 176 yds/game, 2 TD, 4 INTstarted
LARMatthew Stafford · last 3 games: 55% completions, 312 yds/game, 6 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·LAR
Jan 17 at SEA
last game
Jan 25 at SEA
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season
SF·LAR
+0.40
rating (0 = average)
+0.98
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
7−3
last 10
6−4

Rating Trend

SF · LAR · 62 days
San Francisco 49ersLos Angeles Rams
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAR 5−5
Nov 9, 2025at SFLAR 42 − 26
Oct 2, 2025at LARSF 26 − 23
Dec 12, 2024at SFLAR 12 − 6
Sep 22, 2024at LARLAR 27 − 24
Jan 7, 2024at SFLAR 21 − 20
Sep 17, 2023at LARSF 30 − 23
Oct 30, 2022at LARSF 31 − 14
Oct 3, 2022at SFSF 24 − 9
Jan 30, 2022at LARLAR 20 − 17post
Jan 9, 2022at LARSF 27 − 24

SF · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jan 17at SEA6 − 41L
Jan 11at PHI23 − 19W
Jan 3vs SEA3 − 13L
Dec 28, 2025vs CHI42 − 38W
Dec 22, 2025at IND48 − 27W
Dec 14, 2025vs TEN37 − 24W
Nov 30, 2025at CLE26 − 8W
Nov 24, 2025vs CAR20 − 9W
Nov 16, 2025at ARI41 − 22W
Nov 9, 2025vs LAR26 − 42L

LAR · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jan 25at SEA27 − 31L
Jan 18at CHI20 − 17W
Jan 10at CAR34 − 31W
Jan 4vs ARI37 − 20W
Dec 29, 2025at ATL24 − 27L
Dec 18, 2025at SEA37 − 38L
Dec 14, 2025vs DET41 − 34W
Dec 7, 2025at ARI45 − 17W
Nov 30, 2025at CAR28 − 31L
Nov 23, 2025vs TB34 − 7W