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Titans at Giants

NFL · Sunday, Sep 27 · 12:00 PM CT · MetLife Stadium · Final TEN 7 – NYG 12
← NFL / Sep 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TEN00077
NYG363012
Team box
TEN·NYG
262
total yards
238
181
passing yards
100
81
rushing yards
138
17
first downs
16
5-13
third downs
4-13
2
turnovers
0
25:34
time of possession
34:26
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Cam WardTEN23/3618111
Jameis WinstonNYG14/2211800
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Tony PollardTEN17740
Cam SkatteboNYG20600
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Carnell TateTEN6580
Cam SkatteboNYG3400

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYG +12
TEN +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NYG 12 · TEN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEN 32%, NYG 68% · Updated Sep 27

Expected margin
NYG by 6.8
Expected score
NYG 25.2 – 18.5 TEN
Expected total
43.7
TitansThe matchupGiants
+211Our fair odds−211
18.5Expected points25.2
−1.00Power rating−0.36
15.0Points / game17.0
23.5Allowed / game24.0
243Total yards / game288
4.8Yards / play4.5
148Passing yards / game180
0−2Season record1−1
2−8Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEN chance · NYG chance
Our model fair32.2%67.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TENTennessee Titans+21132%————
NYGNew York Giants−21168%————
SpreadNYG by 6.8
TENTennessee Titans+6.8our margin————
NYGNew York Giants−6.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 43.7
Over43.7our total————
Under43.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Giants by 6.8 expected
Tennessee Titans by 46 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 45 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 44 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 43 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 42 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 41 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 40 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 39 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 38 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 37 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 36 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 35 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 34 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 33 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 32 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 31 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 30 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 29 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 28 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 27 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 26 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 25 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 24 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 23 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 22 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 21 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 20 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 19 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 18 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 17 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 16 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 15 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 14 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 13 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 12 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 11 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 10 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 9 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 8 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 7 points: 3%Tennessee Titans by 6 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 5 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 4 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 3 points: 7%Tennessee Titans by 2 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%New York Giants by 1 point: 2%New York Giants by 2 points: 3%New York Giants by 3 points: 7%New York Giants by 4 points: 2%New York Giants by 5 points: 2%New York Giants by 6 points: 4%New York Giants by 7 points: 4%New York Giants by 8 points: 3%New York Giants by 9 points: 1%New York Giants by 10 points: 2%New York Giants by 11 points: 1%New York Giants by 12 points: 2%New York Giants by 13 points: 2%New York Giants by 14 points: 2%New York Giants by 15 points: 1%New York Giants by 16 points: 1%New York Giants by 17 points: 4%New York Giants by 18 points: 2%New York Giants by 19 points: 1%New York Giants by 20 points: 2%New York Giants by 21 points: 2%New York Giants by 22 points: 1%New York Giants by 23 points: 1%New York Giants by 24 points: 2%New York Giants by 25 points: 1%New York Giants by 26 points: 1%New York Giants by 27 points: 1%New York Giants by 28 points: 1%New York Giants by 29 points: <1%New York Giants by 30 points: <1%New York Giants by 31 points: 2%New York Giants by 32 points: 1%New York Giants by 33 points: <1%New York Giants by 34 points: 1%New York Giants by 35 points: 1%New York Giants by 36 points: <1%New York Giants by 37 points: 1%New York Giants by 38 points: 1%New York Giants by 39 points: <1%New York Giants by 40 points: <1%New York Giants by 41 points: <1%New York Giants by 42 points: <1%New York Giants by 43 points: <1%New York Giants by 44 points: <1%New York Giants by 45 points: <1%New York Giants by 46 points: <1%
← TEN wins byNYG wins by →
New York Giants wins by 3 or more62%
New York Giants wins by 7 or more47%
New York Giants wins by 10 or more38%
Within 3 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

43.7 expected
10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 36.569%
Total over 43.548%
Total over 50.530%
Total from 37 to 5039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
TENCam Ward · last 3 games: 64% completions, 125 yds/game, 1 TD, 0 INTstarted
NYGJameis Winston · last 3 games: 45% completions, 159 yds/game, 2 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEN·NYG
Sep 20 vs PHI
last game
Sep 21 at LAR
6 days
days of rest
5 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
TEN·NYG
−1.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.36
15.0
points / game
17.0
23.5
points allowed / game
24.0
0−2
season record
1−1
0−2
home record
1−0
0−0
away record
0−1
L2
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
3−7
243
total yards / game
288
4.8
yards / play
4.5
148
passing yards / game
180
95
rushing yards / game
108
12.5
first downs / game
20.0
0.5
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

TEN · NYG · 5 days
Tennessee TitansNew York Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · NYG 1−0
Sep 11, 2022at TENNYG 21 − 20

TEN · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
Sep 20vs PHI20 − 24L
Sep 13vs NYJ10 − 23L
Jan 4at JAX7 − 41L
Dec 28, 2025vs NO26 − 34L
Dec 21, 2025vs KC26 − 9W
Dec 14, 2025at SF24 − 37L
Dec 7, 2025at CLE31 − 29W
Nov 30, 2025vs JAX3 − 25L
Nov 23, 2025vs SEA24 − 30L
Nov 16, 2025vs HOU13 − 16L

NYG · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Sep 21at LAR6 − 28L
Sep 13vs DAL28 − 20W
Jan 4vs DAL34 − 17W
Dec 28, 2025at LV34 − 10W
Dec 21, 2025vs MIN13 − 16L
Dec 14, 2025vs WSH21 − 29L
Dec 1, 2025at NE15 − 33L
Nov 23, 2025at DET27 − 34L
Nov 16, 2025vs GB20 − 27L
Nov 9, 2025at CHI20 − 24L