bayesRatings

Cardinals at Giants

NFL · Sunday, Oct 4 · 12:00 PM CT · MetLife Stadium · Final ARI 24 – NYG 36
← NFL / Oct 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ARI1437024
NYG3168936
Team box
ARI·NYG
270
total yards
319
147
passing yards
232
123
rushing yards
87
19
first downs
17
4-12
third downs
7-15
3
turnovers
3
27:47
time of possession
32:13
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jacoby BrissettARI21/3516623
Jameis WinstonNYG18/2925032
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jeremiyah LoveARI14630
Cam SkatteboNYG18580
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Michael WilsonARI7950
Malik NabersNYG61121

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYG +12
ARI +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NYG 12 · ARI 11lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 42%, NYG 58% · Updated Oct 4

Expected margin
NYG by 2.1
Expected score
NYG 23.9 – 21.8 ARI
Expected total
45.6
CardinalsThe matchupGiants
+137Our fair odds−137
21.8Expected points23.9
−0.41Power rating−0.31
21.0Points / game15.3
27.0Allowed / game18.3
303Total yards / game271
4.4Yards / play4.4
210Passing yards / game153
1−2Season record2−1
1−9Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · NYG chance
Our model fair42.2%57.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Cardinals+13742%————
NYGNew York Giants−13758%————
SpreadNYG by 2.1
ARIArizona Cardinals+2.1our margin————
NYGNew York Giants−2.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 45.6
Over45.6our total————
Under45.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Giants by 2.1 expected
Arizona Cardinals by 42 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 41 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 40 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 39 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 38 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 37 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 36 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 35 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 34 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 33 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 32 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 31 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 30 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 29 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 28 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 27 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 26 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 25 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 24 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 23 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 22 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 21 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 20 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 19 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 18 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 17 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 16 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 15 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 14 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 13 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 12 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 11 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 10 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 9 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 8 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 7 points: 4%Arizona Cardinals by 6 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 5 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 4 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 3 points: 8%Arizona Cardinals by 2 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%New York Giants by 1 point: 2%New York Giants by 2 points: 3%New York Giants by 3 points: 7%New York Giants by 4 points: 2%New York Giants by 5 points: 2%New York Giants by 6 points: 4%New York Giants by 7 points: 4%New York Giants by 8 points: 3%New York Giants by 9 points: 1%New York Giants by 10 points: 2%New York Giants by 11 points: 1%New York Giants by 12 points: 2%New York Giants by 13 points: 2%New York Giants by 14 points: 2%New York Giants by 15 points: 1%New York Giants by 16 points: 1%New York Giants by 17 points: 2%New York Giants by 18 points: 1%New York Giants by 19 points: <1%New York Giants by 20 points: 1%New York Giants by 21 points: 1%New York Giants by 22 points: 1%New York Giants by 23 points: 1%New York Giants by 24 points: 1%New York Giants by 25 points: 1%New York Giants by 26 points: 1%New York Giants by 27 points: <1%New York Giants by 28 points: 1%New York Giants by 29 points: <1%New York Giants by 30 points: <1%New York Giants by 31 points: 1%New York Giants by 32 points: <1%New York Giants by 33 points: <1%New York Giants by 34 points: <1%New York Giants by 35 points: <1%New York Giants by 36 points: <1%New York Giants by 37 points: <1%New York Giants by 38 points: <1%New York Giants by 39 points: <1%New York Giants by 40 points: <1%New York Giants by 41 points: <1%New York Giants by 42 points: <1%
← ARI wins byNYG wins by →
New York Giants wins by 3 or more49%
New York Giants wins by 7 or more33%
New York Giants wins by 10 or more25%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

45.6 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 38.568%
Total over 45.548%
Total over 52.530%
Total from 39 to 5238%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
ARIJacoby Brissett · last 3 games: 70% completions, 217 yds/game, 4 TD, 1 INTstarted
NYGJameis Winston · last 3 games: 50% completions, 76 yds/game, 0 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·NYG
Sep 27 at SF
last game
Sep 27 vs TEN
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
ARI·NYG
−0.41
rating (0 = average)
−0.31
21.0
points / game
15.3
27.0
points allowed / game
18.3
1−2
season record
2−1
0−1
home record
2−0
1−1
away record
0−1
L2
streak
W1
1−9
last 10
4−6
303
total yards / game
271
4.4
yards / play
4.4
210
passing yards / game
153
93
rushing yards / game
118
20.0
first downs / game
18.7
0.3
turnovers / game
0.7

Rating Trend

ARI · NYG · 8 days
Arizona CardinalsNew York Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · NYG 1−0
Sep 17, 2023at ARINYG 31 − 28

ARI · Last 10

1−9 · streak L2
Sep 27at SF30 − 36L
Sep 20vs SEA7 − 31L
Sep 13at LAC26 − 14W
Jan 4at LAR20 − 37L
Dec 28, 2025at CIN14 − 37L
Dec 21, 2025vs ATL19 − 26L
Dec 14, 2025at HOU20 − 40L
Dec 7, 2025vs LAR17 − 45L
Nov 30, 2025at TB17 − 20L
Nov 23, 2025vs JAX24 − 27L

NYG · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Sep 27vs TEN12 − 7W
Sep 21at LAR6 − 28L
Sep 13vs DAL28 − 20W
Jan 4vs DAL34 − 17W
Dec 28, 2025at LV34 − 10W
Dec 21, 2025vs MIN13 − 16L
Dec 14, 2025vs WSH21 − 29L
Dec 1, 2025at NE15 − 33L
Nov 23, 2025at DET27 − 34L
Nov 16, 2025vs GB20 − 27L