bayesRatings

Cardinals at 49ers

NFL · Sunday, Sep 27 · 3:05 PM CT · Levi's Stadium · Final ARI 30 – SF 36
← NFL / Sep 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ARI0671730
SF71061336
Team box
ARI·SF
365
total yards
437
272
passing yards
297
93
rushing yards
140
27
first downs
23
9-18
third downs
5-8
0
turnovers
1
38:44
time of possession
21:16
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jacoby BrissettARI38/5228020
Brock PurdySF15/2729740
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jeremiyah LoveARI21900
Christian McCaffreySF15751
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Michael WilsonARI11891
George KittleSF6822

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +17
ARI +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SF 17 · ARI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 27%, SF 73% · Updated Sep 27

Expected margin
SF by 12.8
Expected score
SF 30.4 – 17.6 ARI
Expected total
48.0
CardinalsThe matchup49ers
+266Our fair odds−266
17.6Expected points30.4
−0.37Power rating+0.51
16.5Points / game31.0
22.5Allowed / game10.0
272Total yards / game380
4.3Yards / play6.8
179Passing yards / game246
1−1Season record2−0
1−9Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · SF chance
Our model fair27.3%72.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Cardinals+26627%————
SFSan Francisco 49ers−26673%————
SpreadSF by 12.8
ARIArizona Cardinals+12.8our margin————
SFSan Francisco 49ers−12.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 48.0
Over48.0our total————
Under48.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Francisco 49ers by 12.8 expected
Arizona Cardinals by 49 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 48 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 47 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 46 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 45 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 44 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 43 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 42 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 41 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 40 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 39 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 38 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 37 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 36 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 35 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 34 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 33 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 32 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 31 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 30 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 29 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 28 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 27 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 26 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 25 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 24 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 23 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 22 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 21 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 20 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 19 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 18 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 17 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 16 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 15 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 14 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 13 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 12 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 11 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 10 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 9 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 8 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 7 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 6 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 5 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 4 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 3 points: 4%Arizona Cardinals by 2 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 1 point: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 2 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 3 points: 6%San Francisco 49ers by 4 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 5 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 6 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 7 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 8 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 9 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 10 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 11 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 12 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 13 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 14 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 15 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 16 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 17 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 18 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 19 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 20 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 21 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 22 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 23 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 24 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 25 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 26 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 27 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 28 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 29 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 30 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 31 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 32 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 33 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 34 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 35 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 36 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 37 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 38 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 39 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 40 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 41 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 42 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 43 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 44 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 45 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 46 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 47 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 48 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 49 points: <1%
← ARI wins bySF wins by →
San Francisco 49ers wins by 3 or more77%
San Francisco 49ers wins by 7 or more63%
San Francisco 49ers wins by 10 or more54%
Within 3 points either way17%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

48.0 expected
14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 1%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 41.565%
Total over 48.546%
Total over 55.529%
Total from 42 to 5536%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
ARIJacoby Brissett · last 3 games: 69% completions, 205 yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INTstarted
SFBrock Purdy · last 3 games: 72% completions, 211 yds/game, 5 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·SF
Sep 20 vs SEA
last game
Sep 20 vs MIA
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
ARI·SF
−0.37
rating (0 = average)
+0.51
16.5
points / game
31.0
22.5
points allowed / game
10.0
1−1
season record
2−0
0−1
home record
1−0
1−0
away record
1−0
L1
streak
W2
1−9
last 10
8−2
272
total yards / game
380
4.3
yards / play
6.8
179
passing yards / game
246
93
rushing yards / game
134
16.5
first downs / game
23.0
0.5
turnovers / game
0.5

Rating Trend

ARI · SF · 5 days
Arizona CardinalsSan Francisco 49ers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 6−4
Nov 16, 2025at ARISF 41 − 22
Sep 21, 2025at SFSF 16 − 15
Jan 5, 2025at ARIARI 47 − 24
Oct 6, 2024at SFARI 24 − 23
Dec 17, 2023at ARISF 45 − 29
Oct 1, 2023at SFSF 35 − 16
Jan 8, 2023at SFSF 38 − 13
Nov 21, 2022at ARISF 38 − 10
Nov 7, 2021at SFARI 31 − 17
Oct 10, 2021at ARIARI 17 − 10

ARI · Last 10

1−9 · streak L1
Sep 20vs SEA7 − 31L
Sep 13at LAC26 − 14W
Jan 4at LAR20 − 37L
Dec 28, 2025at CIN14 − 37L
Dec 21, 2025vs ATL19 − 26L
Dec 14, 2025at HOU20 − 40L
Dec 7, 2025vs LAR17 − 45L
Nov 30, 2025at TB17 − 20L
Nov 23, 2025vs JAX24 − 27L
Nov 16, 2025vs SF22 − 41L

SF · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Sep 20vs MIA35 − 13W
Sep 10at LAR27 − 7W
Jan 17at SEA6 − 41L
Jan 11at PHI23 − 19W
Jan 3vs SEA3 − 13L
Dec 28, 2025vs CHI42 − 38W
Dec 22, 2025at IND48 − 27W
Dec 14, 2025vs TEN37 − 24W
Nov 30, 2025at CLE26 − 8W
Nov 24, 2025vs CAR20 − 9W