bayesRatings

Dolphins at 49ers

NFL · Sunday, Sep 20 · 3:25 PM CT · Levi's Stadium · Final MIA 13 – SF 35
← NFL / Sep 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA060713
SF7721035
Team box
MIA·SF
284
total yards
382
182
passing yards
287
102
rushing yards
95
13
first downs
23
7-15
third downs
5-7
0
turnovers
0
30:13
time of possession
29:47
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Malik WillisMIA14/2319710
Brock PurdySF20/2228720
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
De'Von AchaneMIA20740
Brock PurdySF3301
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Ryan MillerMIA1771
George KittleSF4801

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +29
MIA +29
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SF 29 · MIA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 30%, SF 70% · Updated Sep 20

Expected margin
SF by 10.9
Expected score
SF 27.6 – 16.7 MIA
Expected total
44.3
DolphinsThe matchup49ers
+229Our fair odds−229
16.7Expected points27.6
−0.31Power rating+0.35
13.0Points / game27.0
27.0Allowed / game7.0
259Total yards / game379
5.2Yards / play5.9
185Passing yards / game205
0−1Season record1−0
5−5Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · SF chance
Our model fair30.4%69.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Dolphins+22930%————
SFSan Francisco 49ers−22970%————
SpreadSF by 10.9
MIAMiami Dolphins+10.9our margin————
SFSan Francisco 49ers−10.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 44.3
Over44.3our total————
Under44.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Francisco 49ers by 10.9 expected
Miami Dolphins by 48 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 47 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 46 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 45 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 44 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 43 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 42 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 41 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 40 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 39 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 38 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 37 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 36 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 35 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 34 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 33 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 32 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 31 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 30 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 29 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 28 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 27 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 26 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 25 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 24 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 23 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 22 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 21 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 20 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 19 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 18 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 17 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 16 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 15 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 14 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 13 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 12 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 11 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 10 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 9 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 8 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 7 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 6 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 5 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 4 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 3 points: 5%Miami Dolphins by 2 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 1 point: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 2 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 3 points: 6%San Francisco 49ers by 4 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 5 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 6 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 7 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 8 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 9 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 10 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 11 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 12 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 13 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 14 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 15 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 16 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 17 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 18 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 19 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 20 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 21 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 22 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 23 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 24 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 25 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 26 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 27 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 28 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 29 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 30 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 31 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 32 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 33 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 34 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 35 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 36 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 37 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 38 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 39 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 40 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 41 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 42 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 43 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 44 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 45 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 46 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 47 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 48 points: <1%
← MIA wins bySF wins by →
San Francisco 49ers wins by 3 or more72%
San Francisco 49ers wins by 7 or more58%
San Francisco 49ers wins by 10 or more49%
Within 3 points either way19%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

44.3 expected
10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 37.567%
Total over 44.547%
Total over 51.528%
Total from 38 to 5139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
MIAMalik Willis · last 3 games: 71% completions, 210 yds/game, 2 TD, 1 INTstarted
SFBrock Purdy · last 3 games: 63% completions, 202 yds/game, 5 TD, 4 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·SF
Sep 13 at LV
last game
Sep 10 at LAR
6 days
days of rest
9 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
MIA·SF
−0.31
rating (0 = average)
+0.35
13.0
points / game
27.0
27.0
points allowed / game
7.0
0−1
season record
1−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−1
away record
1−0
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
8−2
259
total yards / game
379
5.2
yards / play
5.9
185
passing yards / game
205
74
rushing yards / game
174
13.0
first downs / game
23.0
2.0
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

MIA · SF · 2 days
Miami DolphinsSan Francisco 49ers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · SF 1−1
Dec 22, 2024at MIAMIA 29 − 17
Dec 4, 2022at SFSF 33 − 17

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Sep 13at LV13 − 27L
Jan 4at NE10 − 38L
Dec 28, 2025vs TB20 − 17W
Dec 21, 2025vs CIN21 − 45L
Dec 15, 2025at PIT15 − 28L
Dec 7, 2025at NYJ34 − 10W
Nov 30, 2025vs NO21 − 17W
Nov 16, 2025vs WSH16 − 13W
Nov 9, 2025vs BUF30 − 13W
Oct 30, 2025vs BAL6 − 28L

SF · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Sep 10at LAR27 − 7W
Jan 17at SEA6 − 41L
Jan 11at PHI23 − 19W
Jan 3vs SEA3 − 13L
Dec 28, 2025vs CHI42 − 38W
Dec 22, 2025at IND48 − 27W
Dec 14, 2025vs TEN37 − 24W
Nov 30, 2025at CLE26 − 8W
Nov 24, 2025vs CAR20 − 9W
Nov 16, 2025at ARI41 − 22W