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Eagles at Jaguars

NFL · Sunday, Oct 11 · 8:30 AM CT · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium · neutral site · Final PHI 17 – JAX 19
← NFL / Oct 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHI0140317
JAX703919
Team box
PHI·JAX
232
total yards
408
210
passing yards
306
22
rushing yards
102
13
first downs
18
6-15
third downs
5-16
0
turnovers
1
24:58
time of possession
35:02
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jalen HurtsPHI21/4022010
Trevor LawrenceJAX24/3933121
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Dameon PiercePHI11140
Bhayshul TutenJAX22720
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Darius CooperPHI2711
Parker WashingtonJAX61242

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
JAX +7
PHI +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: JAX 7 · PHI 7lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 39%, JAX 61% · Updated Oct 11

Expected margin
JAX by 6.0
Expected score
JAX 23.3 – 17.3 PHI
Expected total
40.6
EaglesThe matchupJaguars
+159Our fair odds−159
17.3Expected points23.3
+0.15Power rating+0.65
18.8Points / game26.0
23.2Allowed / game13.2
270Total yards / game316
4.8Yards / play5.6
161Passing yards / game199
2−2Season record3−1
5−5Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · JAX chance
Our model fair38.6%61.4%
Kalshi25.3%78.2%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:30 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles+15939%+29625.3%———
JAXJacksonville Jaguars−15961%−36078.2%———
SpreadJAX by 6.0
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles+6our margin————
JAXJacksonville Jaguars−6our margin————
Totalwe expect 40.6
Over40.6our total————
Under40.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Jacksonville Jaguars by 6.0 expected
Philadelphia Eagles by 46 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 45 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 44 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 43 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 25 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 24 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 23 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 22 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 20 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 19 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 18 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 17 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 15 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 14 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 13 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 12 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 11 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 10 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 9 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 8 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 7 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 6 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 5 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 4 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 3 points: 7%Philadelphia Eagles by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 1 point: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 2 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 3 points: 7%Jacksonville Jaguars by 4 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 5 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 6 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 7 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 8 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 9 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 10 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 11 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 12 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 13 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 14 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 15 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 16 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 17 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 18 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 19 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 20 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 21 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 22 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 23 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 24 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 25 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 26 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 27 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 28 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 29 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 30 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 31 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 32 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 33 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 34 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 35 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 36 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 37 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 38 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 39 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 40 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 41 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 42 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 43 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 44 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 45 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 46 points: <1%
← PHI wins byJAX wins by →
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 3 or more60%
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 7 or more44%
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 10 or more36%
Within 3 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

40.6 expected
7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 1%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 33.569%
Total over 40.548%
Total over 47.529%
Total from 34 to 4740%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
PHIJalen Hurts · last 3 games: 61% completions, 170 yds/game, 4 TD, 3 INTstarted
JAXTrevor Lawrence · last 3 games: 67% completions, 199 yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·JAX
Oct 4 vs LAR
last game
Oct 4 at CIN
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
PHI·JAX
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.65
18.8
points / game
26.0
23.2
points allowed / game
13.2
2−2
season record
3−1
1−1
home record
2−0
1−1
away record
1−1
L2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
8−2
270
total yards / game
316
4.8
yards / play
5.6
161
passing yards / game
199
109
rushing yards / game
117
14.8
first downs / game
21.5
1.2
turnovers / game
0.5

Rating Trend

PHI · JAX · 11 days
Philadelphia EaglesJacksonville Jaguars
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · JAX 0−2
Nov 3, 2024at PHIPHI 28 − 23
Oct 2, 2022at PHIPHI 29 − 21

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Oct 4vs LAR20 − 24L
Sep 28at CHI7 − 27L
Sep 20at TEN24 − 20W
Sep 13vs WSH24 − 22W
Jan 11vs SF19 − 23L
Jan 4vs WSH17 − 24L
Dec 28, 2025at BUF13 − 12W
Dec 20, 2025at WSH29 − 18W
Dec 14, 2025vs LV31 − 0W
Dec 8, 2025at LAC19 − 22L

JAX · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Oct 4at CIN22 − 17W
Sep 27vs NE35 − 6W
Sep 20at DEN13 − 20L
Sep 13vs CLE34 − 10W
Jan 11vs BUF24 − 27L
Jan 4vs TEN41 − 7W
Dec 28, 2025at IND23 − 17W
Dec 21, 2025at DEN34 − 20W
Dec 14, 2025vs NYJ48 − 20W
Dec 7, 2025vs IND36 − 19W