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Jaguars at Bengals

NFL · Sunday, Oct 4 · 12:00 PM CT · Paycor Stadium · Final JAX 22 – CIN 17
← NFL / Oct 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
JAX3103622
CIN037717
Team box
JAX·CIN
323
total yards
437
212
passing yards
414
111
rushing yards
23
19
first downs
26
5-11
third downs
5-12
0
turnovers
2
29:06
time of possession
30:54
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Trevor LawrenceJAX18/2322710
Joe BurrowCIN39/5442812
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Bhayshul TutenJAX17730
Chase BrownCIN9100
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Brenton StrangeJAX7950
Tee HigginsCIN111570

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +12
JAX +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CIN 0 · JAX 12lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was JAX 56%, CIN 44% · Updated Oct 4

Expected margin
JAX by 5.4
Expected score
JAX 27.8 – 22.4 CIN
Expected total
50.3
JaguarsThe matchupBengals
−129Our fair odds+129
27.8Expected points22.4
+0.50Power rating−0.01
27.3Points / game26.7
12.0Allowed / game21.0
314Total yards / game323
5.5Yards / play5.5
195Passing yards / game232
2−1Season record2−1
8−2Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
JAX chance · CIN chance
Our model fair56.3%43.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
JAXJacksonville Jaguars−12956%————
CINCincinnati Bengals+12944%————
SpreadJAX by 5.4
JAXJacksonville Jaguars−5.4our margin————
CINCincinnati Bengals+5.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 50.3
Over50.3our total————
Under50.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Jacksonville Jaguars by 5.4 expected
Jacksonville Jaguars by 40 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 39 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 38 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 37 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 36 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 35 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 34 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 33 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 32 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 31 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 30 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 29 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 28 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 27 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 26 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 25 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 24 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 23 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 22 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 21 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 20 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 19 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 18 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 17 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 16 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 15 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 14 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 13 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 12 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 11 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 10 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 9 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 8 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 7 points: 5%Jacksonville Jaguars by 6 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 5 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 4 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 3 points: 9%Jacksonville Jaguars by 2 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 1 point: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 2 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 3 points: 6%Cincinnati Bengals by 4 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 5 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 6 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 7 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 8 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 9 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 10 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 11 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 12 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 13 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 14 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 15 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 16 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 17 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 18 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 19 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 20 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 21 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 22 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 23 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 24 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 25 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 26 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 27 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 28 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 29 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 30 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 31 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 32 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 33 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 34 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 35 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 36 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 37 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 38 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 39 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 40 points: <1%
← JAX wins byCIN wins by →
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 3 or more62%
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 7 or more43%
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 10 or more35%
Within 3 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

50.3 expected
16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 2%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 43.566%
Total over 50.547%
Total over 57.530%
Total from 44 to 5735%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
JAXTrevor Lawrence · last 3 games: 67% completions, 205 yds/game, 7 TD, 2 INTstarted
CINJoe Burrow · last 3 games: 71% completions, 248 yds/game, 6 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
JAX·CIN
Sep 27 vs NE
last game
Sep 27 at PIT
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
JAX·CIN
+0.50
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
27.3
points / game
26.7
12.0
points allowed / game
21.0
2−1
season record
2−1
2−0
home record
1−0
0−1
away record
1−1
W1
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
5−5
314
total yards / game
323
5.5
yards / play
5.5
195
passing yards / game
232
119
rushing yards / game
91
22.3
first downs / game
19.0
0.7
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

JAX · CIN · 8 days
Jacksonville JaguarsCincinnati Bengals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · CIN 3−0
Sep 14, 2025at CINCIN 31 − 27
Dec 4, 2023at JAXCIN 34 − 31
Sep 30, 2021at CINCIN 24 − 21

JAX · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Sep 27vs NE35 − 6W
Sep 20at DEN13 − 20L
Sep 13vs CLE34 − 10W
Jan 11vs BUF24 − 27L
Jan 4vs TEN41 − 7W
Dec 28, 2025at IND23 − 17W
Dec 21, 2025at DEN34 − 20W
Dec 14, 2025vs NYJ48 − 20W
Dec 7, 2025vs IND36 − 19W
Nov 30, 2025at TEN25 − 3W

CIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Sep 27at PIT27 − 30L
Sep 20at HOU20 − 6W
Sep 13vs TB33 − 27W
Jan 4vs CLE18 − 20L
Dec 28, 2025vs ARI37 − 14W
Dec 21, 2025at MIA45 − 21W
Dec 14, 2025vs BAL0 − 24L
Dec 7, 2025at BUF34 − 39L
Nov 27, 2025at BAL32 − 14W
Nov 23, 2025vs NE20 − 26L