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Jaguars at Broncos

NFL · Sunday, Sep 20 · 3:05 PM CT · Empower Field at Mile High · Final JAX 13 – DEN 20
← NFL / Sep 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
JAX0103013
DEN0331420
Team box
JAX·DEN
268
total yards
392
173
passing yards
288
95
rushing yards
104
21
first downs
22
5-12
third downs
4-11
1
turnovers
1
28:43
time of possession
31:17
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Trevor LawrenceJAX17/2918901
Bo NixDEN22/3128811
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Bhayshul TutenJAX13651
Jonah ColemanDEN10391
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Parker WashingtonJAX7980
Jaylen WaddleDEN81380

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +10
JAX +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 7 · JAX 10lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was JAX 49%, DEN 51% · Updated Sep 20

Expected margin
JAX by 3.3
Expected score
JAX 23.3 – 20.1 DEN
Expected total
43.4
JaguarsThe matchupBroncos
+104Our fair odds−104
23.3Expected points20.1
+0.39Power rating+0.19
34.0Points / game10.0
10.0Allowed / game31.0
360Total yards / game176
6.4Yards / play3.7
234Passing yards / game115
1−0Season record0−1
9−1Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
JAX chance · DEN chance
Our model fair49.0%51.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
JAXJacksonville Jaguars+10449%————
DENDenver Broncos−10451%————
SpreadJAX by 3.3
JAXJacksonville Jaguars−3.3our margin————
DENDenver Broncos+3.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 43.4
Over43.4our total————
Under43.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Jacksonville Jaguars by 3.3 expected
Jacksonville Jaguars by 39 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 38 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 37 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 36 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 35 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 34 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 33 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 32 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 31 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 30 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 29 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 28 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 27 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 26 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 25 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 24 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 23 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 22 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 21 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 20 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 19 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 18 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 17 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 16 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 15 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 14 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 13 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 12 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 11 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 10 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 9 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 8 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 7 points: 5%Jacksonville Jaguars by 6 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 5 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 4 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 3 points: 9%Jacksonville Jaguars by 2 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Denver Broncos by 1 point: 2%Denver Broncos by 2 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 3 points: 7%Denver Broncos by 4 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 5 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 6 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 7 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 8 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 9 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 10 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 11 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 12 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 13 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 14 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 15 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 16 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 17 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 18 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 19 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 20 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 21 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 22 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 23 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 24 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 25 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 26 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 27 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 28 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 29 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 30 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 31 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 32 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 33 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 34 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 35 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 36 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 37 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 38 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 39 points: <1%
← JAX wins byDEN wins by →
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 3 or more56%
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 7 or more37%
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 10 or more29%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

43.4 expected
9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 36.568%
Total over 43.547%
Total over 50.529%
Total from 37 to 5039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
JAXTrevor Lawrence · last 3 games: 70% completions, 236 yds/game, 10 TD, 2 INTstarted
DENBo Nix · last 3 games: 59% completions, 184 yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
JAX·DEN
Sep 13 vs CLE
last game
Sep 14 at KC
6 days
days of rest
5 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
JAX·DEN
+0.39
rating (0 = average)
+0.19
34.0
points / game
10.0
10.0
points allowed / game
31.0
1−0
season record
0−1
1−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−1
W1
streak
L1
9−1
last 10
7−3
360
total yards / game
176
6.4
yards / play
3.7
234
passing yards / game
115
126
rushing yards / game
61
23.0
first downs / game
9.0
0.0
turnovers / game
2.0

Rating Trend

JAX · DEN · 2 days
Jacksonville JaguarsDenver Broncos
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · DEN 2−1
Dec 21, 2025at DENJAX 34 − 20
Oct 30, 2022at JAXDEN 21 − 17
Sep 19, 2021at JAXDEN 23 − 13

JAX · Last 10

9−1 · streak W1
Sep 13vs CLE34 − 10W
Jan 11vs BUF24 − 27L
Jan 4vs TEN41 − 7W
Dec 28, 2025at IND23 − 17W
Dec 21, 2025at DEN34 − 20W
Dec 14, 2025vs NYJ48 − 20W
Dec 7, 2025vs IND36 − 19W
Nov 30, 2025at TEN25 − 3W
Nov 23, 2025at ARI27 − 24W
Nov 16, 2025vs LAC35 − 6W

DEN · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Sep 14at KC10 − 31L
Jan 25vs NE7 − 10L
Jan 17vs BUF33 − 30W
Jan 4vs LAC19 − 3W
Dec 25, 2025at KC20 − 13W
Dec 21, 2025vs JAX20 − 34L
Dec 14, 2025vs GB34 − 26W
Dec 7, 2025at LV24 − 17W
Nov 30, 2025at WSH27 − 26W
Nov 16, 2025vs KC22 − 19W