bayesRatings

Patriots at Jaguars

NFL · Sunday, Sep 27 · 12:00 PM CT · EverBank Stadium · Final NE 6 – JAX 35
← NFL / Sep 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NE03036
JAX01414735
Team box
NE·JAX
317
total yards
315
234
passing yards
178
83
rushing yards
137
17
first downs
23
4-12
third downs
8-12
3
turnovers
1
28:07
time of possession
31:53
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Drake MayeNE14/2519902
Trevor LawrenceJAX19/2918231
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
TreVeyon HendersonNE8230
Bhayshul TutenJAX15731
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Mack HollinsNE6870
Jakobi MeyersJAX7641

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
JAX +29
NE +29
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: JAX 29 · NE 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NE 50%, JAX 50% · Updated Sep 27

Expected margin
JAX by 2.5
Expected score
JAX 20.4 – 17.9 NE
Expected total
38.4
PatriotsThe matchupJaguars
−102Our fair odds+102
17.9Expected points20.4
+0.52Power rating+0.31
15.0Points / game23.5
8.0Allowed / game15.0
302Total yards / game314
5.2Yards / play5.7
180Passing yards / game204
1−1Season record1−1
7−3Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NE chance · JAX chance
Our model fair50.4%49.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NENew England Patriots−10250%————
JAXJacksonville Jaguars+10250%————
SpreadJAX by 2.5
NENew England Patriots+2.5our margin————
JAXJacksonville Jaguars−2.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 38.4
Over38.4our total————
Under38.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Jacksonville Jaguars by 2.5 expected
New England Patriots by 42 points: <1%New England Patriots by 41 points: <1%New England Patriots by 40 points: <1%New England Patriots by 39 points: <1%New England Patriots by 38 points: <1%New England Patriots by 37 points: <1%New England Patriots by 36 points: <1%New England Patriots by 35 points: <1%New England Patriots by 34 points: <1%New England Patriots by 33 points: <1%New England Patriots by 32 points: <1%New England Patriots by 31 points: <1%New England Patriots by 30 points: <1%New England Patriots by 29 points: <1%New England Patriots by 28 points: 1%New England Patriots by 27 points: <1%New England Patriots by 26 points: <1%New England Patriots by 25 points: <1%New England Patriots by 24 points: 1%New England Patriots by 23 points: 1%New England Patriots by 22 points: <1%New England Patriots by 21 points: 1%New England Patriots by 20 points: 1%New England Patriots by 19 points: 1%New England Patriots by 18 points: 1%New England Patriots by 17 points: 2%New England Patriots by 16 points: 1%New England Patriots by 15 points: <1%New England Patriots by 14 points: 2%New England Patriots by 13 points: <1%New England Patriots by 12 points: 1%New England Patriots by 11 points: 1%New England Patriots by 10 points: 2%New England Patriots by 9 points: 1%New England Patriots by 8 points: 2%New England Patriots by 7 points: 4%New England Patriots by 6 points: 3%New England Patriots by 5 points: 3%New England Patriots by 4 points: 3%New England Patriots by 3 points: 8%New England Patriots by 2 points: 2%New England Patriots by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 1 point: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 2 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 3 points: 7%Jacksonville Jaguars by 4 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 5 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 6 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 7 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 8 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 9 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 10 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 11 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 12 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 13 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 14 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 15 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 16 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 17 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 18 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 19 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 20 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 21 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 22 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 23 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 24 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 25 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 26 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 27 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 28 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 29 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 30 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 31 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 32 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 33 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 34 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 35 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 36 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 37 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 38 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 39 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 40 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 41 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 42 points: <1%
← NE wins byJAX wins by →
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 3 or more50%
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 7 or more34%
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 10 or more26%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

38.4 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 1%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: <1%65 points: <1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 31.569%
Total over 38.548%
Total over 45.528%
Total from 32 to 4541%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NEDrake Maye · last 3 games: 65% completions, 227 yds/game, 3 TD, 6 INTstarted
JAXTrevor Lawrence · last 3 games: 65% completions, 214 yds/game, 7 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NE·JAX
Sep 20 vs PIT
last game
Sep 20 at DEN
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
NE·JAX
+0.52
rating (0 = average)
+0.31
15.0
points / game
23.5
8.0
points allowed / game
15.0
1−1
season record
1−1
1−0
home record
1−0
0−1
away record
0−1
W1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
8−2
302
total yards / game
314
5.2
yards / play
5.7
180
passing yards / game
204
122
rushing yards / game
110
17.0
first downs / game
22.0
2.5
turnovers / game
0.5

Rating Trend

NE · JAX · 5 days
New England PatriotsJacksonville Jaguars
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · JAX 1−1
Oct 20, 2024at JAXJAX 32 − 16
Jan 2, 2022at NENE 50 − 10

NE · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Sep 20vs PIT20 − 3W
Sep 9at SEA10 − 13L
Feb 8vs SEA13 − 29L
Jan 25at DEN10 − 7W
Jan 18vs HOU28 − 16W
Jan 11vs LAC16 − 3W
Jan 4vs MIA38 − 10W
Dec 28, 2025at NYJ42 − 10W
Dec 21, 2025at BAL28 − 24W
Dec 14, 2025vs BUF31 − 35L

JAX · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Sep 20at DEN13 − 20L
Sep 13vs CLE34 − 10W
Jan 11vs BUF24 − 27L
Jan 4vs TEN41 − 7W
Dec 28, 2025at IND23 − 17W
Dec 21, 2025at DEN34 − 20W
Dec 14, 2025vs NYJ48 − 20W
Dec 7, 2025vs IND36 − 19W
Nov 30, 2025at TEN25 − 3W
Nov 23, 2025at ARI27 − 24W