bayesRatings

Rams at Eagles

NFL · Sunday, Oct 4 · 12:00 PM CT · Lincoln Financial Field · Final LAR 24 – PHI 20
← NFL / Oct 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAR3701424
PHI3170020
Team box
LAR·PHI
415
total yards
172
309
passing yards
68
106
rushing yards
104
26
first downs
12
7-16
third downs
0-12
2
turnovers
0
32:00
time of possession
28:00
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Matthew StaffordLAR32/5131702
Jalen HurtsPHI12/279320
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Kyren WilliamsLAR16802
Tank BigsbyPHI14550
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Puka NacuaLAR91250
Darius CooperPHI3332

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +10
LAR +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHI 10 · LAR 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAR 48%, PHI 52% · Updated Oct 4

Expected margin
PHI by 0.5
Expected score
PHI 22.4 – 21.9 LAR
Expected total
44.3
RamsThe matchupEagles
+108Our fair odds−108
21.9Expected points22.4
+0.37Power rating+0.21
20.3Points / game18.3
21.0Allowed / game23.0
418Total yards / game302
6.3Yards / play5.3
284Passing yards / game192
1−2Season record2−1
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAR chance · PHI chance
Our model fair48.0%52.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LARLos Angeles Rams+10848%————
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles−10852%————
SpreadPHI by 0.5
LARLos Angeles Rams+0.5our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 44.3
Over44.3our total————
Under44.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Eagles by 0.5 expected
Los Angeles Rams by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 17 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 14 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 13 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 7 points: 5%Los Angeles Rams by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 3 points: 9%Los Angeles Rams by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 1 point: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 2 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 3 points: 7%Philadelphia Eagles by 4 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 5 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 6 points: 4%Philadelphia Eagles by 7 points: 4%Philadelphia Eagles by 8 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 9 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 10 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 11 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 12 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 13 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 14 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 17 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 19 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 20 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 23 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 24 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 25 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 28 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 31 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 40 points: <1%
← LAR wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 3 or more44%
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 7 or more28%
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 10 or more21%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

44.3 expected
10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 37.567%
Total over 44.547%
Total over 51.528%
Total from 38 to 5139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
LARMatthew Stafford · last 3 games: 60% completions, 291 yds/game, 6 TD, 4 INTstarted
PHIJalen Hurts · last 3 games: 64% completions, 207 yds/game, 5 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAR·PHI
Sep 27 at DEN
last game
Sep 28 at CHI
6 days
days of rest
5 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
LAR·PHI
+0.37
rating (0 = average)
+0.21
20.3
points / game
18.3
21.0
points allowed / game
23.0
1−2
season record
2−1
1−1
home record
1−0
0−1
away record
1−1
L1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
418
total yards / game
302
6.3
yards / play
5.3
284
passing yards / game
192
134
rushing yards / game
111
21.3
first downs / game
15.7
2.0
turnovers / game
1.7

Rating Trend

LAR · PHI · 8 days
Los Angeles RamsPhiladelphia Eagles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 4 meetings · PHI 4−0
Sep 21, 2025at PHIPHI 33 − 26
Jan 19, 2025at PHIPHI 28 − 22post
Nov 24, 2024at LARPHI 37 − 20
Oct 8, 2023at LARPHI 23 − 14

LAR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Sep 27at DEN26 − 30L
Sep 21vs NYG28 − 6W
Sep 10vs SF7 − 27L
Jan 25at SEA27 − 31L
Jan 18at CHI20 − 17W
Jan 10at CAR34 − 31W
Jan 4vs ARI37 − 20W
Dec 29, 2025at ATL24 − 27L
Dec 18, 2025at SEA37 − 38L
Dec 14, 2025vs DET41 − 34W

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Sep 28at CHI7 − 27L
Sep 20at TEN24 − 20W
Sep 13vs WSH24 − 22W
Jan 11vs SF19 − 23L
Jan 4vs WSH17 − 24L
Dec 28, 2025at BUF13 − 12W
Dec 20, 2025at WSH29 − 18W
Dec 14, 2025vs LV31 − 0W
Dec 8, 2025at LAC19 − 22L
Nov 28, 2025vs CHI15 − 24L