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Rams at Broncos

NFL · Sunday, Sep 27 · 7:20 PM CT · Empower Field at Mile High · Final LAR 26 – DEN 30
← NFL / Sep 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAR7901026
DEN00161430
Team box
LAR·DEN
482
total yards
257
366
passing yards
179
116
rushing yards
78
26
first downs
20
8-17
third downs
7-13
2
turnovers
1
34:29
time of possession
25:31
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Matthew StaffordLAR30/5539022
Bo NixDEN17/3418621
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Kyren WilliamsLAR15880
J.K. DobbinsDEN17490
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Davante AdamsLAR71370
Courtland SuttonDEN3460

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +16
LAR +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 4 · LAR 16lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAR 51%, DEN 49% · Updated Sep 27

Expected margin
LAR by 1.3
Expected score
LAR 21.8 – 20.5 DEN
Expected total
42.3
RamsThe matchupBroncos
−102Our fair odds+102
21.8Expected points20.5
+0.49Power rating+0.27
17.5Points / game15.0
16.5Allowed / game22.0
386Total yards / game284
6.5Yards / play5.2
243Passing yards / game202
1−1Season record1−1
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAR chance · DEN chance
Our model fair50.6%49.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LARLos Angeles Rams−10251%————
DENDenver Broncos+10249%————
SpreadLAR by 1.3
LARLos Angeles Rams−1.3our margin————
DENDenver Broncos+1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 42.3
Over42.3our total————
Under42.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Rams by 1.3 expected
Los Angeles Rams by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 17 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 14 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 13 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 7 points: 5%Los Angeles Rams by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 3 points: 9%Los Angeles Rams by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Denver Broncos by 1 point: 2%Denver Broncos by 2 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 3 points: 7%Denver Broncos by 4 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 5 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 6 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 7 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 8 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 9 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 10 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 11 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 12 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 13 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 14 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 15 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 16 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 17 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 18 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 19 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 20 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 21 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 22 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 23 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 24 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 25 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 26 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 27 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 28 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 29 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 30 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 31 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 32 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 33 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 34 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 35 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 36 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 37 points: <1%
← LAR wins byDEN wins by →
Los Angeles Rams wins by 3 or more50%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 7 or more31%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 10 or more24%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

42.3 expected
9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 35.568%
Total over 42.547%
Total over 49.528%
Total from 36 to 4940%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
LARMatthew Stafford · last 3 games: 65% completions, 285 yds/game, 7 TD, 2 INTstarted
DENBo Nix · last 3 games: 62% completions, 233 yds/game, 5 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAR·DEN
Sep 21 vs NYG
last game
Sep 20 vs JAX
5 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
LAR·DEN
+0.49
rating (0 = average)
+0.27
17.5
points / game
15.0
16.5
points allowed / game
22.0
1−1
season record
1−1
1−1
home record
1−0
0−0
away record
0−1
W1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
7−3
386
total yards / game
284
6.5
yards / play
5.2
243
passing yards / game
202
142
rushing yards / game
82
19.0
first downs / game
15.5
2.0
turnovers / game
1.5

Rating Trend

LAR · DEN · 5 days
Los Angeles RamsDenver Broncos
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · DEN 0−1
Dec 25, 2022at LARLAR 51 − 14

LAR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Sep 21vs NYG28 − 6W
Sep 10vs SF7 − 27L
Jan 25at SEA27 − 31L
Jan 18at CHI20 − 17W
Jan 10at CAR34 − 31W
Jan 4vs ARI37 − 20W
Dec 29, 2025at ATL24 − 27L
Dec 18, 2025at SEA37 − 38L
Dec 14, 2025vs DET41 − 34W
Dec 7, 2025at ARI45 − 17W

DEN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Sep 20vs JAX20 − 13W
Sep 14at KC10 − 31L
Jan 25vs NE7 − 10L
Jan 17vs BUF33 − 30W
Jan 4vs LAC19 − 3W
Dec 25, 2025at KC20 − 13W
Dec 21, 2025vs JAX20 − 34L
Dec 14, 2025vs GB34 − 26W
Dec 7, 2025at LV24 − 17W
Nov 30, 2025at WSH27 − 26W