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Cowboys at Eagles

NFL · Monday, Oct 26 · 7:15 PM CT · Lincoln Financial Field · Final DAL 38 – PHI 21
← NFL / Oct 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL101081038
PHI777021
Team box
DAL·PHI
416
total yards
321
212
passing yards
200
204
rushing yards
121
25
first downs
23
8-13
third downs
5-12
0
turnovers
1
30:39
time of possession
29:21
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Dak PrescottDAL15/2721230
Tanner McKeePHI23/3521111
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Javonte WilliamsDAL251551
Saquon BarkleyPHI7621
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
CeeDee LambDAL5742
Makai LemonPHI7671

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +17
DAL +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHI 4 · DAL 17lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 62%, PHI 38% · Updated Oct 26

Expected margin
DAL by 3.7
Expected score
DAL 24.2 – 20.6 PHI
Expected total
44.8
CowboysThe matchupEagles
−160Our fair odds+160
24.2Expected points20.6
−0.32Power rating−0.03
25.2Points / game17.7
26.5Allowed / game22.8
343Total yards / game256
5.5Yards / play4.4
267Passing yards / game173
2−4Season record2−4
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · PHI chance
Our model fair61.6%38.4%
Kalshi68.5%35.6%
Polymarket US68.5%34.8%
ProphetX67.3%35.1%
Novig66.0%34.5%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:15 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 7:13 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 7:14 PM CTNovigpre-game · 7:13 PM CT
Moneyline
DALDallas Cowboys−16062%−21868.5%−21868.5%−20667.3%−19466.0%
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles+16038%+18135.6%+18734.8%+18535.1%+19034.5%
SpreadDAL by 3.7
DALDallas Cowboys−3.7our margin−4.5 −10350.7%−4.5 −10150.2%−4.5 +10349.3%−4.5 +10848.0%
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles+3.7our margin+4.5 −11653.7%+4.5 −11653.7%+4.5 −11252.9%+4.5 −11152.5%
Totalwe expect 44.8
Over44.8our totalo43.5 −11653.7%o43.5 −11453.2%o43.5 −11353.1%o43.5 −10852.0%
Under44.8our totalu43.5 −10350.7%u43.5 −10350.7%u43.5 +10149.8%u43.5 +10648.5%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Dallas Cowboys by 3.7 expected
Dallas Cowboys by 39 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 38 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 37 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 36 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 35 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 34 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 33 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 32 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 31 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 30 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 29 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 28 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 27 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 26 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 25 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 24 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 23 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 22 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 21 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 20 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 19 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 18 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 17 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 16 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 15 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 14 points: 4%Dallas Cowboys by 13 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 12 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 11 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 10 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 9 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 8 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 7 points: 5%Dallas Cowboys by 6 points: 4%Dallas Cowboys by 5 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 4 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 3 points: 9%Dallas Cowboys by 2 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 1 point: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 2 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 3 points: 7%Philadelphia Eagles by 4 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 5 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 6 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 7 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 8 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 9 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 10 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 11 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 12 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 13 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 14 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 17 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 19 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 20 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 22 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 23 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 24 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 25 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 39 points: <1%
← DAL wins byPHI wins by →
Dallas Cowboys wins by 3 or more57%
Dallas Cowboys wins by 7 or more38%
Dallas Cowboys wins by 10 or more30%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

44.8 expected
11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 37.568%
Total over 44.548%
Total over 51.530%
Total from 38 to 5139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
DALDak Prescott · last 3 games: 64% completions, 303 yds/game, 3 TD, 4 INTstarted
PHITanner McKee · last 3 games: 57% completions, 163 yds/game, 2 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·PHI
Oct 18 at GB
last game
Oct 18 vs CAR
7 days
days of rest
7 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Weather

forecast for kickoff · NWS
temp59°F · clear
wind5 mph W
rain0% chance

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Inactives · Oct 26, 2026, 6:50 PM CT
Dallas Cowboys
DALDee Winters · calfInactive
DALDrew Shelton · hamstringInactive
DALEmari Demercado · coach's decisionInactive
DALKaVontae Turpin · ribsInactive
DALTyrus Wheat · coach's decisionInactive
Philadelphia Eagles
PHICole Payton · coach's decisionInactive
PHIDeVonta Smith · hamstringInactive
PHIDontayvion Wicks · ankleInactive
PHIJake Majors · coach's decisionInactive
PHIMichael Carter II · abdomenInactive
PHINolan Smith Jr. · concussionInactive

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
DAL·PHI
−0.32
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
25.2
points / game
17.7
26.5
points allowed / game
22.8
2−4
season record
2−4
1−2
home record
1−2
1−2
away record
1−2
L2
streak
L4
3−7
last 10
4−6
343
total yards / game
256
5.5
yards / play
4.4
267
passing yards / game
173
76
rushing yards / game
82
23.3
first downs / game
14.8
1.2
turnovers / game
0.8

Rating Trend

DAL · PHI · 26 days
Dallas CowboysPhiladelphia Eagles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 5−5
Nov 23, 2025at DALDAL 24 − 21
Sep 4, 2025at PHIPHI 24 − 20
Dec 29, 2024at PHIPHI 41 − 7
Nov 10, 2024at DALPHI 34 − 6
Dec 10, 2023at DALDAL 33 − 13
Nov 5, 2023at PHIPHI 28 − 23
Dec 24, 2022at DALDAL 40 − 34
Oct 16, 2022at PHIPHI 26 − 17
Jan 8, 2022at PHIDAL 51 − 26
Sep 27, 2021at DALDAL 41 − 21

DAL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Oct 18at GB13 − 23L
Oct 8vs TB16 − 24L
Oct 4at HOU34 − 30W
Sep 27vs BAL31 − 34L
Sep 20vs WSH37 − 20W
Sep 13at NYG20 − 28L
Jan 4at NYG17 − 34L
Dec 25, 2025at WSH30 − 23W
Dec 21, 2025vs LAC17 − 34L
Dec 14, 2025vs MIN26 − 34L

PHI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Oct 18vs CAR14 − 25L
Oct 11at JAX17 − 19L
Oct 4vs LAR20 − 24L
Sep 28at CHI7 − 27L
Sep 20at TEN24 − 20W
Sep 13vs WSH24 − 22W
Jan 11vs SF19 − 23L
Jan 4vs WSH17 − 24L
Dec 28, 2025at BUF13 − 12W
Dec 20, 2025at WSH29 − 18W