bayesRatings

Commanders at 49ers

NFL · Monday, Oct 19 · 7:15 PM CT · Levi's Stadium · Final WSH 17 – SF 23
← NFL / Oct 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
WSH307717
SF1373023
Team box
WSH·SF
314
total yards
375
261
passing yards
249
53
rushing yards
126
19
first downs
20
3-12
third downs
7-14
0
turnovers
1
30:15
time of possession
29:45
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jayden DanielsWSH29/4030020
Brock PurdySF21/2926410
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Rachaad WhiteWSH7270
Christian McCaffreySF16642
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Chig OkonkwoWSH7690
Mike EvansSF3940

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +20
WSH +20
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SF 20 · WSH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 22%, SF 78% · Updated Oct 19

Expected margin
SF by 8.1
Expected score
SF 30.1 – 22.0 WSH
Expected total
52.0
CommandersThe matchup49ers
+352Our fair odds−352
22.0Expected points30.1
−0.54Power rating+0.71
23.0Points / game30.8
29.8Allowed / game18.6
327Total yards / game365
5.1Yards / play6.5
188Passing yards / game236
1−3−1Season record5−0
3−6−1Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · SF chance
Our model fair22.1%77.9%
Kalshi25.3%78.2%
Polymarket US25.0%77.7%
ProphetX25.3%77.5%
Novig24.0%76.5%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:15 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 7:14 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 7:13 PM CTNovigpre-game · 7:15 PM CT
Moneyline
WSHWashington Commanders+35222%+29625.3%+30025.0%+29525.3%+31724.0%
SFSan Francisco 49ers−35278%−36078.2%−34977.7%−34477.5%−32676.5%
SpreadSF by 8.1
WSHWashington Commanders+8.1our margin+7.5 −12655.7%+7.5 −12655.7%+7.5 −12154.8%+7.5 −11553.5%
SFSan Francisco 49ers−8.1our margin−7.5 +10548.7%−7.5 +10748.2%−7.5 +11147.4%−7.5 +11347.0%
Totalwe expect 52.0
Over52.0our totalo51.5 −11252.7%o51.5 −10952.2%o51.5 −10551.2%o51.5 −10250.5%
Under52.0our totalu51.5 −10751.8%u51.5 −10751.7%u51.5 −10551.2%u51.5 +10050.0%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Francisco 49ers by 8.1 expected
Washington Commanders by 47 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 46 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 45 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 44 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 43 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 42 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 41 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 40 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 39 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 38 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 37 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 36 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 35 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 34 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 33 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 32 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 31 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 30 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 29 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 28 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 27 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 26 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 25 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 24 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 23 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 22 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 21 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 20 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 19 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 18 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 17 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 16 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 15 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 14 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 13 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 12 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 11 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 10 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 9 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 8 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 7 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 6 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 5 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 4 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 3 points: 6%Washington Commanders by 2 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 1 point: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 2 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 3 points: 7%San Francisco 49ers by 4 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 5 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 6 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 7 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 8 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 9 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 10 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 11 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 12 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 13 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 14 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 15 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 16 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 17 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 18 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 19 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 20 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 21 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 22 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 23 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 24 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 25 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 26 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 27 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 28 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 29 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 30 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 31 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 32 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 33 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 34 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 35 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 36 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 37 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 38 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 39 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 40 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 41 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 42 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 43 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 44 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 45 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 46 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 47 points: <1%
← WSH wins bySF wins by →
San Francisco 49ers wins by 3 or more65%
San Francisco 49ers wins by 7 or more50%
San Francisco 49ers wins by 10 or more42%
Within 3 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

52.0 expected
17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 45.564%
Total over 52.546%
Total over 59.530%
Total from 46 to 5934%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
WSHJayden Daniels · last 3 games: 61% completions, 153 yds/game, 3 TD, 0 INTstarted
SFBrock Purdy · last 3 games: 62% completions, 235 yds/game, 8 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·SF
Oct 11 vs NYG
last game
Oct 11 at SEA
7 days
days of rest
7 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Weather

forecast for kickoff · NWS
temp64°F · mostly cloudy
wind13 mph NW
rain0% chance

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Inactives · Oct 19, 2026, 6:50 PM CT
Washington Commanders
WSHCharles Omenihu · groinInactive
WSHFabian Moreau · coach's decisionInactive
WSHIsaac Yiadom · coach's decisionInactive
WSHMarcus Mariota · knee - mclInactive
WSHT.J. Maguranyanga · coach's decisionInactive
WSHTanoa Togiai · coach's decisionInactive
San Francisco 49ers
SFDeebo Samuel Sr. · hamstringInactive
SFEnrique Cruz Jr. · coach's decisionInactive
SFGarret Wallow · hamstringInactive
SFKurtis Rourke · coach's decisionInactive
SFMarques Sigle · ankleInactive
SFNaquan Jones · coach's decisionInactive
SFNick Bosa · calfInactive

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
WSH·SF
−0.54
rating (0 = average)
+0.71
23.0
points / game
30.8
29.8
points allowed / game
18.6
1−3−1
season record
5−0
1−1−1
home record
3−0
0−2
away record
2−0
T1
streak
W5
3−6−1
last 10
8−2
327
total yards / game
365
5.1
yards / play
6.5
188
passing yards / game
236
140
rushing yards / game
129
18.6
first downs / game
20.6
0.4
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

WSH · SF · 19 days
Washington CommandersSan Francisco 49ers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · SF 2−0
Dec 31, 2023at WSHSF 27 − 10
Dec 24, 2022at SFSF 37 − 20

WSH · Last 10

3−6−1 · streak T1
Oct 11vs NYG27 − 27T
Oct 4vs IND13 − 30L
Sep 27vs SEA33 − 31W
Sep 20at DAL20 − 37L
Sep 13at PHI22 − 24L
Jan 4at PHI24 − 17W
Dec 25, 2025vs DAL23 − 30L
Dec 20, 2025vs PHI18 − 29L
Dec 14, 2025at NYG29 − 21W
Dec 7, 2025at MIN0 − 31L

SF · Last 10

8−2 · streak W5
Oct 11at SEA32 − 29W
Oct 4vs DEN24 − 14W
Sep 27vs ARI36 − 30W
Sep 20vs MIA35 − 13W
Sep 10at LAR27 − 7W
Jan 17at SEA6 − 41L
Jan 11at PHI23 − 19W
Jan 3vs SEA3 − 13L
Dec 28, 2025vs CHI42 − 38W
Dec 22, 2025at IND48 − 27W