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Broncos at 49ers

NFL · Sunday, Oct 4 · 3:25 PM CT · Levi's Stadium · Final DEN 14 – SF 24
← NFL / Oct 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN3001114
SF0371424
Team box
DEN·SF
296
total yards
358
214
passing yards
218
82
rushing yards
140
16
first downs
20
8-17
third downs
6-13
1
turnovers
0
30:53
time of possession
29:07
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Bo NixDEN25/4221410
Brock PurdySF19/3021820
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
J.K. DobbinsDEN11400
Christian McCaffreySF15521
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
RJ HarveyDEN10680
Mike EvansSF5760

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +11
DEN +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SF 11 · DEN 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 42%, SF 58% · Updated Oct 4

Expected margin
SF by 5.8
Expected score
SF 25.2 – 19.5 DEN
Expected total
44.7
BroncosThe matchup49ers
+136Our fair odds−136
19.5Expected points25.2
+0.37Power rating+0.46
20.0Points / game32.7
23.3Allowed / game16.7
275Total yards / game399
4.9Yards / play7.5
194Passing yards / game263
2−1Season record3−0
7−3Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · SF chance
Our model fair42.3%57.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Broncos+13642%————
SFSan Francisco 49ers−13658%————
SpreadSF by 5.8
DENDenver Broncos+5.8our margin————
SFSan Francisco 49ers−5.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 44.7
Over44.7our total————
Under44.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Francisco 49ers by 5.8 expected
Denver Broncos by 45 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 44 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 43 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 42 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 41 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 40 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 39 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 38 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 37 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 36 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 35 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 34 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 33 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 32 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 31 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 30 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 29 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 28 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 27 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 26 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 25 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 24 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 23 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 22 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 21 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 20 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 19 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 18 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 17 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 16 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 15 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 14 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 13 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 12 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 11 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 10 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 9 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 8 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 7 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 6 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 5 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 4 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 3 points: 7%Denver Broncos by 2 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 1 point: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 2 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 3 points: 7%San Francisco 49ers by 4 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 5 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 6 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 7 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 8 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 9 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 10 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 11 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 12 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 13 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 14 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 15 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 16 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 17 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 18 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 19 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 20 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 21 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 22 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 23 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 24 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 25 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 26 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 27 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 28 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 29 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 30 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 31 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 32 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 33 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 34 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 35 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 36 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 37 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 38 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 39 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 40 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 41 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 42 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 43 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 44 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 45 points: <1%
← DEN wins bySF wins by →
San Francisco 49ers wins by 3 or more59%
San Francisco 49ers wins by 7 or more44%
San Francisco 49ers wins by 10 or more35%
Within 3 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

44.7 expected
11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 37.568%
Total over 44.548%
Total over 51.529%
Total from 38 to 5139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
DENBo Nix · last 3 games: 60% completions, 202 yds/game, 4 TD, 3 INTstarted
SFBrock Purdy · last 3 games: 72% completions, 263 yds/game, 9 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·SF
Sep 27 vs LAR
last game
Sep 27 vs ARI
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
DEN·SF
+0.37
rating (0 = average)
+0.46
20.0
points / game
32.7
23.3
points allowed / game
16.7
2−1
season record
3−0
2−0
home record
2−0
0−1
away record
1−0
W2
streak
W3
7−3
last 10
8−2
275
total yards / game
399
4.9
yards / play
7.5
194
passing yards / game
263
81
rushing yards / game
136
17.0
first downs / game
23.0
1.3
turnovers / game
0.7

Rating Trend

DEN · SF · 8 days
Denver BroncosSan Francisco 49ers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · SF 0−1
Sep 25, 2022at DENDEN 11 − 10

DEN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Sep 27vs LAR30 − 26W
Sep 20vs JAX20 − 13W
Sep 14at KC10 − 31L
Jan 25vs NE7 − 10L
Jan 17vs BUF33 − 30W
Jan 4vs LAC19 − 3W
Dec 25, 2025at KC20 − 13W
Dec 21, 2025vs JAX20 − 34L
Dec 14, 2025vs GB34 − 26W
Dec 7, 2025at LV24 − 17W

SF · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Sep 27vs ARI36 − 30W
Sep 20vs MIA35 − 13W
Sep 10at LAR27 − 7W
Jan 17at SEA6 − 41L
Jan 11at PHI23 − 19W
Jan 3vs SEA3 − 13L
Dec 28, 2025vs CHI42 − 38W
Dec 22, 2025at IND48 − 27W
Dec 14, 2025vs TEN37 − 24W
Nov 30, 2025at CLE26 − 8W