bayesRatings

49ers at Seahawks

NFL · Sunday, Oct 11 · 3:25 PM CT · Lumen Field · Final SF 32 – SEA 29
← NFL / Oct 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SF71401132
SEA7613329
Team box
SF·SEA
269
total yards
251
175
passing yards
162
94
rushing yards
89
14
first downs
14
4-12
third downs
3-12
3
turnovers
4
29:02
time of possession
30:58
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Brock PurdySF19/2918921
Sam DarnoldSEA18/2919512
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Christian McCaffreySF11681
Emanuel WilsonSEA20611
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Mike EvansSF71131
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA51021

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +8
SF +8
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SEA 5 · SF 8lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 36%, SEA 64% · Updated Oct 11

Expected margin
SEA by 7.9
Expected score
SEA 27.1 – 19.2 SF
Expected total
46.2
49ersThe matchupSeahawks
+176Our fair odds−176
19.2Expected points27.1
+0.64Power rating+1.04
30.5Points / game26.2
16.0Allowed / game18.2
389Total yards / game347
7.0Yards / play5.8
252Passing yards / game237
4−0Season record3−1
8−2Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · SEA chance
Our model fair36.2%63.8%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:25 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco 49ers+17636%+12943.7%———
SEASeattle Seahawks−17664%−15460.7%———
SpreadSEA by 7.9
SFSan Francisco 49ers+7.9our margin————
SEASeattle Seahawks−7.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 46.2
Over46.2our total————
Under46.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Seahawks by 7.9 expected
San Francisco 49ers by 47 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 46 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 45 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 44 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 43 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 42 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 41 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 40 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 39 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 38 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 37 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 36 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 35 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 34 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 33 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 32 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 31 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 30 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 29 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 28 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 27 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 26 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 25 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 24 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 23 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 22 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 21 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 20 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 19 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 18 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 17 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 16 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 15 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 14 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 13 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 12 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 11 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 10 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 9 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 8 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 7 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 6 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 5 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 4 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 3 points: 6%San Francisco 49ers by 2 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 1 point: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 2 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 3 points: 7%Seattle Seahawks by 4 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 5 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 6 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 7 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 8 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 9 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 10 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 11 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 12 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 13 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 14 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 15 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 16 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 17 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 18 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 19 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 20 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 21 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 22 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 23 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 24 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 25 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 26 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 27 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 28 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 29 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 30 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 31 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 32 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 33 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 34 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 35 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 36 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 37 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 38 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 39 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 40 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 41 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 42 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 43 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 44 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 45 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 46 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 47 points: <1%
← SF wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Seahawks wins by 3 or more65%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 7 or more50%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 10 or more41%
Within 3 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

46.2 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 39.567%
Total over 46.547%
Total over 53.529%
Total from 40 to 5338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
SFBrock Purdy · last 3 games: 68% completions, 267 yds/game, 8 TD, 0 INTstarted
SEASam Darnold · last 3 games: 65% completions, 187 yds/game, 6 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·SEA
Oct 4 vs DEN
last game
Oct 4 vs LAC
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
SF·SEA
+0.64
rating (0 = average)
+1.04
30.5
points / game
26.2
16.0
points allowed / game
18.2
4−0
season record
3−1
3−0
home record
2−0
1−0
away record
1−1
W4
streak
W1
8−2
last 10
9−1
389
total yards / game
347
7.0
yards / play
5.8
252
passing yards / game
237
137
rushing yards / game
110
22.2
first downs / game
20.8
0.5
turnovers / game
1.2

Rating Trend

SF · SEA · 11 days
San Francisco 49ersSeattle Seahawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 3−7
Jan 17at SEASEA 41 − 6post
Jan 3at SFSEA 13 − 3
Sep 7, 2025at SEASF 17 − 13
Nov 17, 2024at SFSEA 20 − 17
Oct 10, 2024at SEASF 36 − 24
Dec 10, 2023at SFSF 28 − 16
Nov 23, 2023at SEASF 31 − 13
Jan 14, 2023at SFSF 41 − 23post
Dec 15, 2022at SEASF 21 − 13
Sep 18, 2022at SFSF 27 − 7

SF · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
Oct 4vs DEN24 − 14W
Sep 27vs ARI36 − 30W
Sep 20vs MIA35 − 13W
Sep 10at LAR27 − 7W
Jan 17at SEA6 − 41L
Jan 11at PHI23 − 19W
Jan 3vs SEA3 − 13L
Dec 28, 2025vs CHI42 − 38W
Dec 22, 2025at IND48 − 27W
Dec 14, 2025vs TEN37 − 24W

SEA · Last 10

9−1 · streak W1
Oct 4vs LAC30 − 23W
Sep 27at WSH31 − 33L
Sep 20at ARI31 − 7W
Sep 9vs NE13 − 10W
Feb 8at NE29 − 13W
Jan 25vs LAR31 − 27W
Jan 17vs SF41 − 6W
Jan 3at SF13 − 3W
Dec 28, 2025at CAR27 − 10W
Dec 18, 2025vs LAR38 − 37W