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Chargers at Seahawks

NFL · Sunday, Oct 4 · 3:25 PM CT · Lumen Field · Final LAC 23 – SEA 30
← NFL / Oct 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAC3371023
SEA71310030
Team box
LAC·SEA
301
total yards
286
154
passing yards
148
147
rushing yards
138
20
first downs
19
5-15
third downs
3-12
4
turnovers
1
30:59
time of possession
29:01
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Justin HerbertLAC19/3118912
Sam DarnoldSEA13/2216821
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Omarion HamptonLAC9451
Emanuel WilsonSEA21811
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Tre' HarrisLAC3600
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA5760

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +21
LAC +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SEA 21 · LAC 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAC 23%, SEA 77% · Updated Oct 4

Expected margin
SEA by 17.0
Expected score
SEA 27.8 – 10.8 LAC
Expected total
38.5
ChargersThe matchupSeahawks
+338Our fair odds−338
10.8Expected points27.8
−0.19Power rating+0.91
14.7Points / game25.0
25.3Allowed / game16.7
309Total yards / game368
5.2Yards / play6.1
196Passing yards / game267
0−3Season record2−1
4−6Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAC chance · SEA chance
Our model fair22.8%77.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LACLos Angeles Chargers+33823%————
SEASeattle Seahawks−33877%————
SpreadSEA by 17.0
LACLos Angeles Chargers+17our margin————
SEASeattle Seahawks−17our margin————
Totalwe expect 38.5
Over38.5our total————
Under38.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Seahawks by 17.0 expected
Los Angeles Chargers by 50 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 49 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 48 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 47 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 46 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 25 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 24 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 23 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 22 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 21 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 20 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 19 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 18 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 17 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 16 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 15 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 14 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 13 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 12 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 11 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 10 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 9 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 8 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 7 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 6 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 5 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 4 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 3 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 2 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 1 point: 1%Tie: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 1 point: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 2 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 3 points: 5%Seattle Seahawks by 4 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 5 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 6 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 7 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 8 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 9 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 10 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 11 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 12 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 13 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 14 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 15 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 16 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 17 points: 5%Seattle Seahawks by 18 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 19 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 20 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 21 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 22 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 23 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 24 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 25 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 26 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 27 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 28 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 29 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 30 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 31 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 32 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 33 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 34 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 35 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 36 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 37 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 38 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 39 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 40 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 41 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 42 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 43 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 44 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 45 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 46 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 47 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 48 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 49 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 50 points: <1%
← LAC wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Seahawks wins by 3 or more86%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 7 or more75%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 10 or more67%
Within 3 points either way13%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

38.5 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: <1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 31.569%
Total over 38.548%
Total over 45.528%
Total from 32 to 4541%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
LACJustin Herbert · last 3 games: 59% completions, 209 yds/game, 3 TD, 4 INTstarted
SEASam Darnold · last 3 games: 60% completions, 198 yds/game, 5 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAC·SEA
Sep 27 at BUF
last game
Sep 27 at WSH
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
LAC·SEA
−0.19
rating (0 = average)
+0.91
14.7
points / game
25.0
25.3
points allowed / game
16.7
0−3
season record
2−1
0−2
home record
1−0
0−1
away record
1−1
L3
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
9−1
309
total yards / game
368
5.2
yards / play
6.1
196
passing yards / game
267
113
rushing yards / game
101
18.0
first downs / game
21.3
2.0
turnovers / game
1.3

Rating Trend

LAC · SEA · 8 days
Los Angeles ChargersSeattle Seahawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · SEA 1−0
Oct 23, 2022at LACSEA 37 − 23

LAC · Last 10

4−6 · streak L6
Sep 27at BUF16 − 24L
Sep 20vs LV14 − 26L
Sep 13vs ARI14 − 26L
Jan 11at NE3 − 16L
Jan 4at DEN3 − 19L
Dec 27, 2025vs HOU16 − 20L
Dec 21, 2025at DAL34 − 17W
Dec 14, 2025at KC16 − 13W
Dec 8, 2025vs PHI22 − 19W
Nov 30, 2025vs LV31 − 14W

SEA · Last 10

9−1 · streak L1
Sep 27at WSH31 − 33L
Sep 20at ARI31 − 7W
Sep 9vs NE13 − 10W
Feb 8at NE29 − 13W
Jan 25vs LAR31 − 27W
Jan 17vs SF41 − 6W
Jan 3at SF13 − 3W
Dec 28, 2025at CAR27 − 10W
Dec 18, 2025vs LAR38 − 37W
Dec 14, 2025vs IND18 − 16W