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Chargers at Bills

NFL · Sunday, Sep 27 · 12:00 PM CT · Highmark Stadium · Final LAC 16 – BUF 24
← NFL / Sep 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAC1003316
BUF01001424
Team box
LAC·BUF
348
total yards
350
217
passing yards
174
131
rushing yards
176
20
first downs
22
6-15
third downs
6-12
1
turnovers
5
31:22
time of possession
28:38
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Justin HerbertLAC20/3422611
Josh AllenBUF16/2620402
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Omarion HamptonLAC15560
James Cook IIIBUF241541
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Tre' HarrisLAC6760
DJ MooreBUF6670

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BUF +11
LAC +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BUF 11 · LAC 10lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAC 28%, BUF 72% · Updated Sep 27

Expected margin
BUF by 11.0
Expected score
BUF 30.1 – 19.1 LAC
Expected total
49.3
ChargersThe matchupBills
+252Our fair odds−252
19.1Expected points30.1
−0.19Power rating+0.63
14.0Points / game38.5
26.0Allowed / game31.0
289Total yards / game428
5.2Yards / play7.2
185Passing yards / game283
0−2Season record2−0
4−6Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAC chance · BUF chance
Our model fair28.4%71.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LACLos Angeles Chargers+25228%————
BUFBuffalo Bills−25272%————
SpreadBUF by 11.0
LACLos Angeles Chargers+11our margin————
BUFBuffalo Bills−11our margin————
Totalwe expect 49.3
Over49.3our total————
Under49.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Buffalo Bills by 11.0 expected
Los Angeles Chargers by 49 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 48 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 47 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 46 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 25 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 24 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 23 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 22 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 21 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 20 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 19 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 18 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 17 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 16 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 15 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 14 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 13 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 12 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 11 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 10 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 9 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 8 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 7 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 6 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 5 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 3 points: 5%Los Angeles Chargers by 2 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Buffalo Bills by 1 point: 2%Buffalo Bills by 2 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 3 points: 6%Buffalo Bills by 4 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 5 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 6 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 7 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 8 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 9 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 10 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 11 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 12 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 13 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 14 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 15 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 16 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 17 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 18 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 19 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 20 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 21 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 22 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 23 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 24 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 25 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 26 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 27 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 28 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 29 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 30 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 31 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 32 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 33 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 34 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 35 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 36 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 37 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 38 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 39 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 40 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 41 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 42 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 43 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 44 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 45 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 46 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 47 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 48 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 49 points: <1%
← LAC wins byBUF wins by →
Buffalo Bills wins by 3 or more72%
Buffalo Bills wins by 7 or more58%
Buffalo Bills wins by 10 or more49%
Within 3 points either way19%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

49.3 expected
15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 2%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 42.566%
Total over 49.547%
Total over 56.530%
Total from 43 to 5636%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
LACJustin Herbert · last 3 games: 60% completions, 187 yds/game, 2 TD, 3 INTstarted
BUFJosh Allen · last 3 games: 66% completions, 288 yds/game, 8 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAC·BUF
Sep 20 vs LV
last game
Sep 17 vs DET
6 days
days of rest
9 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
LAC·BUF
−0.19
rating (0 = average)
+0.63
14.0
points / game
38.5
26.0
points allowed / game
31.0
0−2
season record
2−0
0−2
home record
1−0
0−0
away record
1−0
L2
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
8−2
289
total yards / game
428
5.2
yards / play
7.2
185
passing yards / game
283
104
rushing yards / game
144
17.0
first downs / game
27.0
2.5
turnovers / game
0.0

Rating Trend

LAC · BUF · 5 days
Los Angeles ChargersBuffalo Bills
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · BUF 1−0
Dec 23, 2023at LACBUF 24 − 22

LAC · Last 10

4−6 · streak L5
Sep 20vs LV14 − 26L
Sep 13vs ARI14 − 26L
Jan 11at NE3 − 16L
Jan 4at DEN3 − 19L
Dec 27, 2025vs HOU16 − 20L
Dec 21, 2025at DAL34 − 17W
Dec 14, 2025at KC16 − 13W
Dec 8, 2025vs PHI22 − 19W
Nov 30, 2025vs LV31 − 14W
Nov 16, 2025at JAX6 − 35L

BUF · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Sep 17vs DET41 − 31W
Sep 13at HOU36 − 31W
Jan 17at DEN30 − 33L
Jan 11at JAX27 − 24W
Jan 4vs NYJ35 − 8W
Dec 28, 2025vs PHI12 − 13L
Dec 21, 2025at CLE23 − 20W
Dec 14, 2025at NE35 − 31W
Dec 7, 2025vs CIN39 − 34W
Nov 30, 2025at PIT26 − 7W