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Broncos at Panthers

NFL · Sunday, Nov 8 · 12:00 PM CT · Bank of America Stadium · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 8

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
DEN by 3.3
Expected score
DEN 24.1 – 20.8 CAR
Expected total
44.9
BroncosThe matchupPanthers
−150Our fair odds+150
24.1Expected points20.8
+0.53Power rating−0.25
20.6Points / game25.4
20.1Allowed / game27.6
270Total yards / game364
4.7Yards / play5.5
175Passing yards / game262
5−2Season record3−4
7−3Last 103−7
Nick Gargiulo G · RJ Harvey RB
Talanoa Hufanga S · Caleb Lohner TE
Frank Crum OTOut (5 each)Bobby Brown III DT · Damien Lewis G
Ikem Ekwonu OT · Jaelan Phillips LB
Torricelli Simpkins III G

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · CAR chance
Our model fair60.0%40.0%
Kalshi60.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi6:01 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Broncos−15060%−15460.7%———
CARCarolina Panthers+15040%+11446.7%———
SpreadDEN by 3.3
DENDenver Broncos−3.3our margin————
CARCarolina Panthers+3.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 44.9
Over44.9our total————
Under44.9our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Broncos by 3.3 expected
Denver Broncos by 39 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 38 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 37 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 36 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 35 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 34 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 33 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 32 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 31 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 30 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 29 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 28 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 27 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 26 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 25 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 24 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 23 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 22 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 21 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 20 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 19 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 18 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 17 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 16 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 15 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 14 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 13 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 12 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 11 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 10 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 9 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 8 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 7 points: 5%Denver Broncos by 6 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 5 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 4 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 3 points: 9%Denver Broncos by 2 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Carolina Panthers by 1 point: 2%Carolina Panthers by 2 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 3 points: 7%Carolina Panthers by 4 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 5 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 6 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 7 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 8 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 9 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 10 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 11 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 12 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 13 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 14 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 15 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 16 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 17 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 18 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 19 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 20 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 21 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 22 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 23 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 24 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 25 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 26 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 27 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 28 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 29 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 30 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 31 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 32 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 33 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 34 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 35 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 36 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 37 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 38 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 39 points: <1%
← DEN wins byCAR wins by →
Denver Broncos wins by 3 or more56%
Denver Broncos wins by 7 or more37%
Denver Broncos wins by 10 or more29%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

44.9 expected
11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 37.569%
Total over 44.548%
Total over 51.530%
Total from 38 to 5139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
DENBo Nix · last 3 games: 58% completions, 151 yds/game, 2 TD, 0 INTdepth chart
CARBryce Young · last 3 games: 53% completions, 218 yds/game, 4 TD, 3 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·CAR
Oct 25 at ARI
last game
Oct 29 at GB
13 days
days of rest
9 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Denver Broncos
DENNick Gargiulo G · right knee - acl surgeryOut
DENRJ Harvey RB · knee, back about Nov 8Out
DENTalanoa Hufanga S · ankle, back about Nov 8Out
DENBrandon Jones S · hamstringQuestionable
DENGarett Bolles OT · hipQuestionable
DENJaylen Waddle WR · chestQuestionable
DENZach Allen DE · hamstringQuestionable
DENCaleb Lohner TE · lower body surgeryIR
DENFrank Crum OT · undisclosedIR
DENJonah Elliss LB · ankle, back about Nov 27IR
and 5 more
Carolina Panthers
CARBobby Brown III DT · hand, back about Nov 8Out
CARDamien Lewis G · knee, back about Nov 8Out
CARIkem Ekwonu OT · right knee surgery, back about Nov 8Out
CARJaelan Phillips LB · hamstring, back about Nov 8Out
CARTorricelli Simpkins III G · left ankle, back about Nov 8Out
CARCorey Bullock C · quadriceps, back about Nov 8Questionable
CARWill Lee III CB · hamstring, back about Nov 8Questionable
CARAkayleb Evans CB · triceps, back about Nov 30IR
CARBrady Christensen G · hamstringIR
CARCam Jackson DT · shoulder surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
and 8 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
DEN·CAR
+0.53
rating (0 = average)
−0.25
20.6
points / game
25.4
20.1
points allowed / game
27.6
5−2
season record
3−4
3−0
home record
1−2
2−2
away record
2−2
W3
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
3−7
270
total yards / game
364
4.7
yards / play
5.5
175
passing yards / game
262
95
rushing yards / game
102
16.6
first downs / game
21.1
0.9
turnovers / game
1.4

Rating Trend

DEN · CAR · 30 days
Denver BroncosCarolina Panthers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · CAR 1−1
Oct 27, 2024at DENDEN 28 − 14
Nov 27, 2022at CARCAR 23 − 10

DEN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Oct 25at ARI30 − 16W
Oct 15vs SEA17 − 14W
Oct 11at LAC23 − 17W
Oct 4at SF14 − 24L
Sep 27vs LAR30 − 26W
Sep 20vs JAX20 − 13W
Sep 14at KC10 − 31L
Jan 25vs NE7 − 10L
Jan 17vs BUF33 − 30W
Jan 4vs LAC19 − 3W

CAR · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Oct 29at GB19 − 27L
Oct 25vs TB13 − 43L
Oct 18at PHI25 − 14W
Oct 4vs DET32 − 26W
Sep 27at CLE18 − 21L
Sep 20at ATL34 − 3W
Sep 13vs CHI37 − 59L
Jan 10vs LAR31 − 34L
Jan 3at TB14 − 16L
Dec 28, 2025vs SEA10 − 27L