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Broncos at Cardinals

NFL · Sunday, Oct 25 · 3:05 PM CT · State Farm Stadium · Final DEN 30 – ARI 16
← NFL / Oct 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN6714330
ARI067316
Team box
DEN·ARI
377
total yards
353
218
passing yards
259
159
rushing yards
94
18
first downs
24
3-11
third downs
5-17
0
turnovers
0
26:42
time of possession
33:18
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Bo NixDEN15/2922210
Jacoby BrissettARI27/4827210
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Bo NixDEN7731
Bam KnightARI7480
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
RJ HarveyDEN2541
Trey McBrideARI101111

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +17
DEN +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ARI 0 · DEN 17lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 69%, ARI 31% · Updated Oct 25

Expected margin
DEN by 6.3
Expected score
DEN 25.4 – 19.1 ARI
Expected total
44.5
BroncosThe matchupCardinals
−224Our fair odds+224
25.4Expected points19.1
+0.48Power rating−0.58
19.0Points / game21.0
20.8Allowed / game29.7
252Total yards / game307
4.3Yards / play4.5
168Passing yards / game211
4−2Season record2−4
7−3Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · ARI chance
Our model fair69.1%30.9%
Kalshi68.5%35.6%
Polymarket US68.8%34.5%
ProphetX68.9%34.7%
Novig67.5%33.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 3:04 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 3:03 PM CTNovigpre-game · 3:04 PM CT
Moneyline
DENDenver Broncos−22469%−21868.5%−22068.8%−22168.9%−20867.5%
ARIArizona Cardinals+22431%+18135.6%+19034.5%+18834.7%+20333.0%
SpreadDEN by 6.3
DENDenver Broncos−6.3our margin−4.5 −11252.7%−4.5 −10952.2%−4.5 −10852.0%−4.5 −10250.5%
ARIArizona Cardinals+6.3our margin+4.5 −10751.8%+4.5 −10751.7%+4.5 −10250.5%+4.5 +10050.0%
Totalwe expect 44.5
Over44.5our totalo44.5 −10350.7%o44.5 −10350.7%o44.5 −10150.3%o44.5 +10249.5%
Under44.5our totalu44.5 −11653.7%u44.5 −11453.2%u44.5 −11052.4%u44.5 −10651.5%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Broncos by 6.3 expected
Denver Broncos by 40 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 39 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 38 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 37 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 36 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 35 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 34 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 33 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 32 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 31 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 30 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 29 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 28 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 27 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 26 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 25 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 24 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 23 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 22 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 21 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 20 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 19 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 18 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 17 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 16 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 15 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 14 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 13 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 12 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 11 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 10 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 9 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 8 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 7 points: 5%Denver Broncos by 6 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 5 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 4 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 3 points: 9%Denver Broncos by 2 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 1 point: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 2 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 3 points: 6%Arizona Cardinals by 4 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 5 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 6 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 7 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 8 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 9 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 10 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 11 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 12 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 13 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 14 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 15 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 16 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 17 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 18 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 19 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 20 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 21 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 22 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 23 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 24 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 25 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 26 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 27 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 28 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 29 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 30 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 31 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 32 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 33 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 34 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 35 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 36 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 37 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 38 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 39 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 40 points: <1%
← DEN wins byARI wins by →
Denver Broncos wins by 3 or more64%
Denver Broncos wins by 7 or more46%
Denver Broncos wins by 10 or more37%
Within 3 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

44.5 expected
10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 37.568%
Total over 44.547%
Total over 51.529%
Total from 38 to 5139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
DENBo Nix · last 3 games: 60% completions, 148 yds/game, 2 TD, 0 INTstarted
ARIJacoby Brissett · last 3 games: 63% completions, 225 yds/game, 5 TD, 5 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·ARI
Oct 15 vs SEA
last game
Oct 18 at LAR
9 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Weather

forecast for kickoff · NWS
temp81°F · sunny
wind0 mph
rain0% chance

For context, not in our forecast. Retractable roof, so it may be closed.

Who's Out

Inactives · Oct 25, 2026, 2:40 PM CT
Denver Broncos
DENDallen Bentley · coach's decisionInactive
DENJordan Jackson · coach's decisionInactive
DENKage Casey · coach's decisionInactive
DENPat Surtain II · ankleInactive
DENSam Ehlinger · coach's decisionInactive
DENTalanoa Hufanga · ankleInactive
DENTyler Onyedim · coach's decisionInactive
Arizona Cardinals
ARIAlbert Reese IV · coach's decisionInactive
ARIAndrew Wingard · kneeInactive
ARICarson Beck · backInactive
ARIJeremiyah Love · ankleInactive
ARIJon Gaines II · kneeInactive
ARIMax Melton · kneeInactive
ARIWalter Nolen III · ankleInactive

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
DEN·ARI
+0.48
rating (0 = average)
−0.58
19.0
points / game
21.0
20.8
points allowed / game
29.7
4−2
season record
2−4
3−0
home record
0−2
1−2
away record
2−2
W2
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
2−8
252
total yards / game
307
4.3
yards / play
4.5
168
passing yards / game
211
84
rushing yards / game
96
16.3
first downs / game
20.2
1.0
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

DEN · ARI · 25 days
Denver BroncosArizona Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · ARI 0−1
Dec 18, 2022at DENDEN 24 − 15

DEN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Oct 15vs SEA17 − 14W
Oct 11at LAC23 − 17W
Oct 4at SF14 − 24L
Sep 27vs LAR30 − 26W
Sep 20vs JAX20 − 13W
Sep 14at KC10 − 31L
Jan 25vs NE7 − 10L
Jan 17vs BUF33 − 30W
Jan 4vs LAC19 − 3W
Dec 25, 2025at KC20 − 13W

ARI · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Oct 18at LAR18 − 16W
Oct 11vs DET21 − 45L
Oct 4at NYG24 − 36L
Sep 27at SF30 − 36L
Sep 20vs SEA7 − 31L
Sep 13at LAC26 − 14W
Jan 4at LAR20 − 37L
Dec 28, 2025at CIN14 − 37L
Dec 21, 2025vs ATL19 − 26L
Dec 14, 2025at HOU20 − 40L