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Lions at Cardinals

NFL · Sunday, Oct 11 · 3:25 PM CT · State Farm Stadium · Final DET 45 – ARI 21
← NFL / Oct 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DET02414745
ARI707721
Team box
DET·ARI
412
total yards
327
249
passing yards
271
163
rushing yards
56
24
first downs
20
4-13
third downs
8-18
0
turnovers
1
29:49
time of possession
30:11
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jared GoffDET19/3027130
Jacoby BrissettARI29/4729231
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jahmyr GibbsDET251512
Jeremiyah LoveARI12220
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Sam LaPortaDET5881
Kendrick BourneARI5700

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +31
DET +31
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ARI 7 · DET 31lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 60%, ARI 40% · Updated Oct 11

Expected margin
DET by 10.7
Expected score
DET 36.2 – 25.5 ARI
Expected total
61.7
LionsThe matchupCardinals
−153Our fair odds+153
36.2Expected points25.5
+0.14Power rating−0.55
29.8Points / game21.8
31.8Allowed / game29.2
389Total yards / game295
5.8Yards / play4.4
287Passing yards / game194
2−2Season record1−3
4−6Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · ARI chance
Our model fair60.5%39.5%
Kalshi71.5%32.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:25 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Lions−15360%−25171.5%———
ARIArizona Cardinals+15340%+20832.5%———
SpreadDET by 10.7
DETDetroit Lions−10.7our margin————
ARIArizona Cardinals+10.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 61.7
Over61.7our total————
Under61.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Lions by 10.7 expected
Detroit Lions by 40 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 39 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 38 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 37 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 36 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 35 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 34 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 33 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 32 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 31 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 30 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 29 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 28 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 27 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 26 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 25 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 24 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 23 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 22 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 21 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 20 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 19 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 18 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 17 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 16 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 15 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 14 points: 5%Detroit Lions by 13 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 12 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 11 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 10 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 9 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 8 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 7 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 6 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 5 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 4 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 3 points: 6%Detroit Lions by 2 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 1 point: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 2 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 3 points: 4%Arizona Cardinals by 4 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 5 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 6 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 7 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 8 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 9 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 10 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 11 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 12 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 13 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 14 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 15 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 16 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 17 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 18 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 19 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 20 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 21 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 22 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 23 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 24 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 25 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 26 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 27 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 28 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 29 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 30 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 31 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 32 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 33 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 34 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 35 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 36 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 37 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 38 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 39 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 40 points: <1%
← DET wins byARI wins by →
Detroit Lions wins by 3 or more73%
Detroit Lions wins by 7 or more60%
Detroit Lions wins by 10 or more53%
Within 3 points either way17%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

61.7 expected
24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: <1%27 points: <1%28 points: <1%29 points: <1%30 points: <1%31 points: <1%32 points: <1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 1%38 points: 1%39 points: 1%40 points: 1%41 points: 1%42 points: 1%43 points: 2%44 points: 2%45 points: 1%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 3%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 3%66 points: 3%67 points: 2%68 points: 3%69 points: 2%70 points: 2%71 points: 2%72 points: 2%73 points: 3%74 points: 3%75 points: 2%76 points: 2%77 points: 2%78 points: 2%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: 1%83 points: 1%84 points: 1%85 points: 1%86 points: 1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: 1%90 points: 1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: 1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: 1%97 points: <1%98 points: <1%99 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 54.567%
Total over 61.551%
Total over 68.535%
Total from 55 to 6832%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
DETJared Goff · last 3 games: 68% completions, 336 yds/game, 7 TD, 0 INTstarted
ARIJacoby Brissett · last 3 games: 66% completions, 180 yds/game, 5 TD, 4 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·ARI
Oct 4 at CAR
last game
Oct 4 at NYG
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
DET·ARI
+0.14
rating (0 = average)
−0.55
29.8
points / game
21.8
31.8
points allowed / game
29.2
2−2
season record
1−3
2−0
home record
0−1
0−2
away record
1−2
L1
streak
L3
4−6
last 10
1−9
389
total yards / game
295
5.8
yards / play
4.4
287
passing yards / game
194
102
rushing yards / game
100
24.5
first downs / game
19.8
0.2
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

DET · ARI · 11 days
Detroit LionsArizona Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · ARI 0−2
Sep 22, 2024at ARIDET 20 − 13
Dec 19, 2021at DETDET 30 − 12

DET · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Oct 4at CAR26 − 32L
Sep 27vs NYJ31 − 24W
Sep 17at BUF31 − 41L
Sep 13vs NO31 − 30W
Jan 4at CHI19 − 16W
Dec 25, 2025at MIN10 − 23L
Dec 21, 2025vs PIT24 − 29L
Dec 14, 2025at LAR34 − 41L
Dec 4, 2025vs DAL44 − 30W
Nov 27, 2025vs GB24 − 31L

ARI · Last 10

1−9 · streak L3
Oct 4at NYG24 − 36L
Sep 27at SF30 − 36L
Sep 20vs SEA7 − 31L
Sep 13at LAC26 − 14W
Jan 4at LAR20 − 37L
Dec 28, 2025at CIN14 − 37L
Dec 21, 2025vs ATL19 − 26L
Dec 14, 2025at HOU20 − 40L
Dec 7, 2025vs LAR17 − 45L
Nov 30, 2025at TB17 − 20L