bayesRatings

Broncos at Chargers

NFL · Sunday, Oct 11 · 3:05 PM CT · SoFi Stadium · Final DEN 23 – LAC 17
← NFL / Oct 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN7301323
LAC0314017
Team box
DEN·LAC
224
total yards
237
118
passing yards
82
106
rushing yards
155
18
first downs
14
1-12
third downs
5-14
1
turnovers
3
29:07
time of possession
30:53
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Bo NixDEN16/2712310
Justin HerbertLAC14/2412111
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
J.K. DobbinsDEN18681
Kimani VidalLAC8571
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Evan EngramDEN4550
Charlie KolarLAC3370

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAC +7
DEN +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAC 7 · DEN 7lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 58%, LAC 42% · Updated Oct 11

Expected margin
DEN by 1.6
Expected score
DEN 19.7 – 18.1 LAC
Expected total
37.7
BroncosThe matchupChargers
−137Our fair odds+137
19.7Expected points18.1
+0.33Power rating−0.24
18.5Points / game16.8
23.5Allowed / game26.5
280Total yards / game307
4.8Yards / play5.0
199Passing yards / game185
2−2Season record0−4
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · LAC chance
Our model fair57.9%42.1%
Kalshi65.6%38.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Broncos−13758%−19165.6%———
LACLos Angeles Chargers+13742%+15938.6%———
SpreadDEN by 1.6
DENDenver Broncos−1.6our margin————
LACLos Angeles Chargers+1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 37.7
Over37.7our total————
Under37.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Broncos by 1.6 expected
Denver Broncos by 38 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 37 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 36 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 35 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 34 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 33 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 32 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 31 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 30 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 29 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 28 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 27 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 26 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 25 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 24 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 23 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 22 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 21 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 20 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 19 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 18 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 17 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 16 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 15 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 14 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 13 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 12 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 11 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 10 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 9 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 8 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 7 points: 5%Denver Broncos by 6 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 5 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 4 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 3 points: 9%Denver Broncos by 2 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 2 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 3 points: 7%Los Angeles Chargers by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 6 points: 4%Los Angeles Chargers by 7 points: 4%Los Angeles Chargers by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 13 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 14 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 17 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 19 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 22 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 25 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 38 points: <1%
← DEN wins byLAC wins by →
Denver Broncos wins by 3 or more51%
Denver Broncos wins by 7 or more32%
Denver Broncos wins by 10 or more24%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

37.7 expected
5 points: <1%6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 3%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 1%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: <1%65 points: <1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 30.570%
Total over 37.549%
Total over 44.529%
Total from 31 to 4441%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
DENBo Nix · last 3 games: 60% completions, 229 yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INTstarted
LACJustin Herbert · last 3 games: 59% completions, 202 yds/game, 3 TD, 5 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·LAC
Oct 4 at SF
last game
Oct 4 at SEA
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
DEN·LAC
+0.33
rating (0 = average)
−0.24
18.5
points / game
16.8
23.5
points allowed / game
26.5
2−2
season record
0−4
2−0
home record
0−2
0−2
away record
0−2
L1
streak
L4
6−4
last 10
3−7
280
total yards / game
307
4.8
yards / play
5.0
199
passing yards / game
185
81
rushing yards / game
122
16.8
first downs / game
18.5
1.2
turnovers / game
2.5

Rating Trend

DEN · LAC · 11 days
Denver BroncosLos Angeles Chargers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAC 5−5
Jan 4at DENDEN 19 − 3
Sep 21, 2025at LACLAC 23 − 20
Dec 19, 2024at LACLAC 34 − 27
Oct 13, 2024at DENLAC 23 − 16
Dec 31, 2023at DENDEN 16 − 9
Dec 10, 2023at LACDEN 24 − 7
Jan 8, 2023at DENDEN 31 − 28
Oct 17, 2022at LACLAC 19 − 16
Jan 2, 2022at LACLAC 34 − 13
Nov 28, 2021at DENDEN 28 − 13

DEN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Oct 4at SF14 − 24L
Sep 27vs LAR30 − 26W
Sep 20vs JAX20 − 13W
Sep 14at KC10 − 31L
Jan 25vs NE7 − 10L
Jan 17vs BUF33 − 30W
Jan 4vs LAC19 − 3W
Dec 25, 2025at KC20 − 13W
Dec 21, 2025vs JAX20 − 34L
Dec 14, 2025vs GB34 − 26W

LAC · Last 10

3−7 · streak L7
Oct 4at SEA23 − 30L
Sep 27at BUF16 − 24L
Sep 20vs LV14 − 26L
Sep 13vs ARI14 − 26L
Jan 11at NE3 − 16L
Jan 4at DEN3 − 19L
Dec 27, 2025vs HOU16 − 20L
Dec 21, 2025at DAL34 − 17W
Dec 14, 2025at KC16 − 13W
Dec 8, 2025vs PHI22 − 19W