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Vikings at Packers

NFL · Sunday, Nov 15 · 12:00 PM CT · Lambeau Field · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NFL / Nov 15

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Nov 1

Expected margin
MIN by 2.7
Expected score
MIN 18.7 – 16.0 GB
Expected total
34.7
VikingsThe matchupPackers
−142Our fair odds+142
18.7Expected points16.0
+0.67Power rating+0.25
20.8Points / game21.4
12.3Allowed / game20.5
282Total yards / game332
4.6Yards / play5.3
162Passing yards / game271
6−0Season record5−3
10−0Last 105−5
Donovan Jackson G · Jamal Adams LB
Josh Oliver TE · Nick Samac C
Tyler Batty LBOut (5 each)Luke Musgrave TE · Micah Parsons DE
Sean Rhyan G · Travis Glover OT
Zaire Franklin LB

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · GB chance
Our model fair58.7%41.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Vikings−14259%————
GBGreen Bay Packers+14241%————
SpreadMIN by 2.7
MINMinnesota Vikings−2.7our margin————
GBGreen Bay Packers+2.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 34.7
Over34.7our total————
Under34.7our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Vikings by 2.7 expected
Minnesota Vikings by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 27 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 26 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 16 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 15 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 14 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 13 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 12 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 11 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 9 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 8 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 7 points: 5%Minnesota Vikings by 6 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 3 points: 9%Minnesota Vikings by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Green Bay Packers by 1 point: 2%Green Bay Packers by 2 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 3 points: 7%Green Bay Packers by 4 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 5 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 6 points: 4%Green Bay Packers by 7 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 8 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 9 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 10 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 11 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 12 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 13 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 14 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 15 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 16 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 17 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 18 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 19 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 20 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 21 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 22 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 23 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 24 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 25 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 26 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 27 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 28 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 29 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 30 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 31 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 32 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 33 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 34 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 35 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 36 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 37 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 38 points: <1%
← MIN wins byGB wins by →
Minnesota Vikings wins by 3 or more54%
Minnesota Vikings wins by 7 or more35%
Minnesota Vikings wins by 10 or more27%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

34.7 expected
3 points: <1%4 points: <1%5 points: <1%6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: 1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: 1%13 points: 1%14 points: 1%15 points: 1%16 points: 1%17 points: 2%18 points: 1%19 points: 2%20 points: 2%21 points: 2%22 points: 2%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 3%27 points: 3%28 points: 3%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 3%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 2%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 1%50 points: 1%51 points: 1%52 points: 1%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: <1%61 points: <1%62 points: <1%63 points: <1%64 points: <1%65 points: <1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 27.571%
Total over 34.549%
Total over 41.528%
Total from 28 to 4142%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Probable Starting QBs

as announced
MINKyler Murray · last 3 games: 71% completions, 209 yds/game, 2 TD, 0 INTdepth chart
GBJordan Love · last 3 games: 63% completions, 279 yds/game, 6 TD, 3 INTdepth chart

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·GB
Oct 25 vs IND
last game
Oct 29 vs CAR
20 days
days of rest
16 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Minnesota Vikings
MINJay Ward S · kneeQuestionable
MINDonovan Jackson G · knee - meniscus surgery, back about Jan 17, 2027IR
MINJamal Adams LB · right quadriceps, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
MINJosh Oliver TE · biceps surgery, back about Jan 17, 2027IR
MINNick Samac C · kneeIR
MINTyler Batty LB · knee - acl surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
Green Bay Packers
GBLuke Musgrave TE · neck, back about Nov 25Out
GBMicah Parsons DE · left knee - acl surgery, back about Nov 25Out
GBSean Rhyan G · ankle sprain, back about Nov 25Out
GBTravis Glover OT · kneeOut
GBZaire Franklin LB · shin fractureOut
GBChristian Watson WR · ribs fractureQuestionable
GBChris Brooks RB · ankleIR
GBCollin Oliver DE · achillesIR
GBEdgerrin Cooper LB · left achilles surgery, back about Feb 15, 2027IR
GBJacob Monk C · quadriceps, back about Dec 6IR
and 8 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
MIN·GB
+0.67
rating (0 = average)
+0.25
20.8
points / game
21.4
12.3
points allowed / game
20.5
6−0
season record
5−3
3−0
home record
3−1
3−0
away record
2−2
W6
streak
W1
10−0
last 10
5−5
282
total yards / game
332
4.6
yards / play
5.3
162
passing yards / game
271
119
rushing yards / game
61
15.7
first downs / game
18.0
0.7
turnovers / game
1.4

Rating Trend

MIN · GB · 32 days
Minnesota VikingsGreen Bay Packers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · GB 4−6
Sep 13at MINMIN 39 − 22
Jan 4at MINMIN 16 − 3
Nov 23, 2025at GBGB 23 − 6
Dec 29, 2024at MINMIN 27 − 25
Sep 29, 2024at GBMIN 31 − 29
Dec 31, 2023at MINGB 33 − 10
Oct 29, 2023at GBMIN 24 − 10
Jan 1, 2023at GBGB 41 − 17
Sep 11, 2022at MINMIN 23 − 7
Jan 2, 2022at GBGB 37 − 10

MIN · Last 10

10−0 · streak W10
Oct 25vs IND16 − 10W
Oct 11at NO23 − 13W
Oct 4vs MIA15 − 10W
Sep 27at TB23 − 16W
Sep 20at CHI9 − 3W
Sep 13vs GB39 − 22W
Jan 4vs GB16 − 3W
Dec 25, 2025vs DET23 − 10W
Dec 21, 2025at NYG16 − 13W
Dec 14, 2025at DAL34 − 26W

GB · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 29vs CAR27 − 19W
Oct 25at DET17 − 20L
Oct 18vs DAL23 − 13W
Oct 11vs CHI31 − 7W
Oct 4at TB17 − 14W
Sep 24vs ATL14 − 35L
Sep 20at NYJ20 − 17W
Sep 13at MIN22 − 39L
Jan 10at CHI27 − 31L
Jan 4at MIN3 − 16L