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Packers at Lions

NFL · Sunday, Oct 25 · 3:25 PM CT · Ford Field · Final GB 17 – DET 20
← NFL / Oct 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GB707317
DET737320
Team box
GB·DET
324
total yards
415
264
passing yards
296
60
rushing yards
119
17
first downs
26
5-15
third downs
5-10
1
turnovers
2
29:59
time of possession
30:01
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jordan LoveGB27/4527421
Jared GoffDET22/3230320
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Josh JacobsGB11360
Jahmyr GibbsDET291160
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Christian WatsonGB5570
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET91530

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +7
GB +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DET 7 · GB 4lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GB 38%, DET 62% · Updated Oct 25

Expected margin
DET by 3.7
Expected score
DET 29.4 – 25.7 GB
Expected total
55.1
PackersThe matchupLions
+164Our fair odds−164
25.7Expected points29.4
+0.22Power rating+0.32
21.2Points / game32.8
20.8Allowed / game29.6
329Total yards / game394
5.4Yards / play5.9
269Passing yards / game280
4−2Season record3−2
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GB chance · DET chance
Our model fair37.9%62.1%
Kalshi36.6%67.6%
Polymarket US36.3%67.1%
ProphetX36.3%66.2%
Novig34.5%66.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:25 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 3:23 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 3:23 PM CTNovigpre-game · 3:24 PM CT
Moneyline
GBGreen Bay Packers+16438%+17336.6%+17536.3%+17636.3%+19034.5%
DETDetroit Lions−16462%−20867.6%−20467.1%−19666.2%−19466.0%
SpreadDET by 3.7
GBGreen Bay Packers+3.7our margin+4.5 −11653.7%+4.5 −11453.2%+4.5 −10751.7%+4.5 −10451.0%
DETDetroit Lions−3.7our margin−4.5 −10350.7%−4.5 −10350.7%−4.5 −10250.5%−4.5 +10249.5%
Totalwe expect 55.1
Over55.1our totalo55.5 −10350.7%o55.5 −10350.7%o55.5 +10349.3%o55.5 +10449.0%
Under55.1our totalu55.5 −11653.7%u55.5 −11453.2%u55.5 −11252.9%u55.5 −10852.0%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Lions by 3.7 expected
Green Bay Packers by 43 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 42 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 41 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 40 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 39 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 38 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 37 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 36 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 35 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 34 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 33 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 32 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 31 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 30 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 29 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 28 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 27 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 26 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 25 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 24 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 23 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 22 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 21 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 20 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 19 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 18 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 17 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 16 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 15 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 14 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 13 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 12 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 11 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 10 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 9 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 8 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 7 points: 4%Green Bay Packers by 6 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 5 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 4 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 3 points: 8%Green Bay Packers by 2 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Detroit Lions by 1 point: 2%Detroit Lions by 2 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 3 points: 7%Detroit Lions by 4 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 5 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 6 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 7 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 8 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 9 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 10 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 11 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 12 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 13 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 14 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 15 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 16 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 17 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 18 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 19 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 20 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 21 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 22 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 23 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 24 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 25 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 26 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 27 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 28 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 29 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 30 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 31 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 32 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 33 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 34 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 35 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 36 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 37 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 38 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 39 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 40 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 41 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 42 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 43 points: <1%
← GB wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Lions wins by 3 or more53%
Detroit Lions wins by 7 or more37%
Detroit Lions wins by 10 or more29%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

55.1 expected
19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: <1%27 points: <1%28 points: <1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 2%38 points: 1%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 2%44 points: 2%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 2%68 points: 2%69 points: 2%70 points: 1%71 points: 2%72 points: 1%73 points: 2%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: 1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 48.564%
Total over 55.547%
Total over 62.532%
Total from 49 to 6232%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
GBJordan Love · last 3 games: 69% completions, 280 yds/game, 5 TD, 2 INTstarted
DETJared Goff · last 3 games: 67% completions, 317 yds/game, 6 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GB·DET
Oct 18 vs DAL
last game
Oct 11 at ARI
6 days
days of rest
13 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Inactives · Oct 25, 2026, 3:00 PM CT
Green Bay Packers
GBBenjamin St-Juste · hamstringInactive
GBDonovan Jennings · coach's decisionInactive
GBJager Burton · coach's decisionInactive
GBKaleb Johnson · coach's decisionInactive
GBKevin Zeitler · coach's decisionInactive
GBZaire Franklin · shinInactive
Detroit Lions
DETAhmed Hassanein · coach's decisionInactive
DETBishop Fitzgerald · coach's decisionInactive
DETJackson Meeks · coach's decisionInactive
DETMekhi Wingo · coach's decisionInactive
DETSeth McLaughlin · coach's decisionInactive

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
GB·DET
+0.22
rating (0 = average)
+0.32
21.2
points / game
32.8
20.8
points allowed / game
29.6
4−2
season record
3−2
2−1
home record
2−0
2−1
away record
1−2
W3
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
5−5
329
total yards / game
394
5.4
yards / play
5.9
269
passing yards / game
280
60
rushing yards / game
114
17.7
first downs / game
24.4
1.2
turnovers / game
0.2

Rating Trend

GB · DET · 25 days
Green Bay PackersDetroit Lions
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 6−4
Nov 27, 2025at DETGB 31 − 24
Sep 7, 2025at GBGB 27 − 13
Dec 5, 2024at DETDET 34 − 31
Nov 3, 2024at GBDET 24 − 14
Nov 23, 2023at DETGB 29 − 22
Sep 28, 2023at GBDET 34 − 20
Jan 8, 2023at GBDET 20 − 16
Nov 6, 2022at DETDET 15 − 9
Jan 9, 2022at DETDET 37 − 30
Sep 20, 2021at GBGB 35 − 17

GB · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
Oct 18vs DAL23 − 13W
Oct 11vs CHI31 − 7W
Oct 4at TB17 − 14W
Sep 24vs ATL14 − 35L
Sep 20at NYJ20 − 17W
Sep 13at MIN22 − 39L
Jan 10at CHI27 − 31L
Jan 4at MIN3 − 16L
Dec 27, 2025vs BAL24 − 41L
Dec 20, 2025at CHI16 − 22L

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 11at ARI45 − 21W
Oct 4at CAR26 − 32L
Sep 27vs NYJ31 − 24W
Sep 17at BUF31 − 41L
Sep 13vs NO31 − 30W
Jan 4at CHI19 − 16W
Dec 25, 2025at MIN10 − 23L
Dec 21, 2025vs PIT24 − 29L
Dec 14, 2025at LAR34 − 41L
Dec 4, 2025vs DAL44 − 30W