bayesRatings

Colts at Vikings

NFL · Sunday, Oct 25 · 12:00 PM CT · U.S. Bank Stadium · Final IND 10 – MIN 16
← NFL / Oct 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND730010
MIN0601016
Team box
IND·MIN
218
total yards
275
64
passing yards
139
154
rushing yards
136
15
first downs
17
8-15
third downs
3-11
1
turnovers
0
31:50
time of possession
28:10
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Daniel JonesIND13/2210801
Kyler MurrayMIN14/2415010
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jonathan TaylorIND18951
Jordan MasonMIN15680
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Keenan AllenIND3310
Justin JeffersonMIN4440

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +7
IND +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 6 · IND 7lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 24%, MIN 76% · Updated Oct 25

Expected margin
MIN by 8.1
Expected score
MIN 25.2 – 17.0 IND
Expected total
42.2
ColtsThe matchupVikings
+317Our fair odds−317
17.0Expected points25.2
−0.24Power rating+0.61
24.0Points / game21.8
27.3Allowed / game12.8
311Total yards / game283
4.6Yards / play4.6
200Passing yards / game167
2−4Season record5−0
2−8Last 1010−0

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · MIN chance
Our model fair24.0%76.0%
Kalshi27.3%76.3%
Polymarket US26.8%76.1%
ProphetX27.5%74.9%
Novig26.0%74.5%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:00 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 11:59 AM CTProphetXpre-game · 11:58 AM CTNovigpre-game · 11:58 AM CT
Moneyline
INDIndianapolis Colts+31724%+26627.3%+27326.8%+26427.5%+28526.0%
MINMinnesota Vikings−31776%−32276.3%−31876.1%−29874.9%−29274.5%
SpreadMIN by 8.1
INDIndianapolis Colts+8.1our margin+7.5 −12655.7%+7.5 −12655.7%+7.5 −12555.5%+7.5 −11754.0%
MINMinnesota Vikings−8.1our margin−7.5 +10548.7%−7.5 +10748.2%−7.5 +10947.8%−7.5 +11546.5%
Totalwe expect 42.2
Over42.2our totalo42.5 −11252.7%o42.5 −10952.2%o42.5 −11152.7%o42.5 −10451.0%
Under42.2our totalu42.5 −10751.8%u42.5 −10751.7%u42.5 −10150.3%u42.5 +10249.5%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Vikings by 8.1 expected
Indianapolis Colts by 47 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 46 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 45 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 44 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 43 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 42 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 41 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 40 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 39 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 38 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 37 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 36 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 35 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 34 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 33 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 32 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 31 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 30 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 29 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 28 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 27 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 26 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 25 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 24 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 23 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 22 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 21 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 20 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 19 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 18 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 17 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 16 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 15 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 14 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 13 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 12 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 11 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 10 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 9 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 8 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 7 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 6 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 5 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 4 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 3 points: 6%Indianapolis Colts by 2 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 2 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 3 points: 7%Minnesota Vikings by 4 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 5 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 6 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 7 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 9 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 10 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 11 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 12 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 13 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 15 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 16 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 17 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 20 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 21 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 24 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 30 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 31 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 32 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 34 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 35 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 36 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 37 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 38 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 46 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 47 points: <1%
← IND wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Vikings wins by 3 or more65%
Minnesota Vikings wins by 7 or more50%
Minnesota Vikings wins by 10 or more42%
Within 3 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

42.2 expected
9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: <1%68 points: 1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 35.568%
Total over 42.547%
Total over 49.528%
Total from 36 to 4940%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
INDDaniel Jones · last 3 games: 54% completions, 226 yds/game, 1 TD, 3 INTstarted
MINKyler Murray · last 3 games: 69% completions, 215 yds/game, 2 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·MIN
Oct 18 vs TEN
last game
Oct 11 at NO
6 days
days of rest
13 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Inactives · Oct 25, 2026, 11:30 AM CT
Indianapolis Colts
INDAnthony Gould · concussionInactive
INDBryce Boettcher · groinInactive
INDDalton Tucker · coach's decisionInactive
INDRiley Leonard · coach's decisionInactive
INDSauce Gardner · calfInactive
INDTyler Warren · groinInactive
Minnesota Vikings
MINCaleb Tiernan · coach's decisionInactive
MINCharles Demmings · coach's decisionInactive
MINDemond Claiborne · coach's decisionInactive
MINElijah Williams · coach's decisionInactive
MINJakobe Thomas · coach's decisionInactive
MINMax Brosmer · coach's decisionInactive

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
IND·MIN
−0.24
rating (0 = average)
+0.61
24.0
points / game
21.8
27.3
points allowed / game
12.8
2−4
season record
5−0
1−2
home record
2−0
1−2
away record
3−0
L2
streak
W5
2−8
last 10
10−0
311
total yards / game
283
4.6
yards / play
4.6
200
passing yards / game
167
112
rushing yards / game
116
20.0
first downs / game
15.4
1.8
turnovers / game
0.8

Rating Trend

IND · MIN · 25 days
Indianapolis ColtsMinnesota Vikings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · MIN 2−0
Nov 3, 2024at MINMIN 21 − 13
Dec 17, 2022at MINMIN 39 − 36

IND · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Oct 18vs TEN20 − 26L
Oct 11at PIT22 − 34L
Oct 4at WSH30 − 13W
Sep 27vs HOU19 − 17W
Sep 20at KC30 − 33L
Sep 13vs BAL23 − 41L
Jan 4at HOU30 − 38L
Dec 28, 2025vs JAX17 − 23L
Dec 22, 2025vs SF27 − 48L
Dec 14, 2025at SEA16 − 18L

MIN · Last 10

10−0 · streak W10
Oct 11at NO23 − 13W
Oct 4vs MIA15 − 10W
Sep 27at TB23 − 16W
Sep 20at CHI9 − 3W
Sep 13vs GB39 − 22W
Jan 4vs GB16 − 3W
Dec 25, 2025vs DET23 − 10W
Dec 21, 2025at NYG16 − 13W
Dec 14, 2025at DAL34 − 26W
Dec 7, 2025vs WSH31 − 0W