bayesRatings

Vikings at Saints

NFL · Sunday, Oct 11 · 12:00 PM CT · Caesars Superdome · Final MIN 23 – NO 13
← NFL / Oct 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN3371023
NO076013
Team box
MIN·NO
364
total yards
142
211
passing yards
87
153
rushing yards
55
18
first downs
9
9-18
third downs
2-10
2
turnovers
3
39:37
time of possession
20:23
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Kyler MurrayMIN24/3022910
Tyler ShoughNO16/259602
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Aaron Jones Sr.MIN251131
Kendre MillerNO10301
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Justin JeffersonMIN6791
Chris OlaveNO4460

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +10
MIN +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 4 · MIN 10lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 67%, NO 33% · Updated Oct 11

Expected margin
MIN by 6.5
Expected score
MIN 23.2 – 16.8 NO
Expected total
40.0
VikingsThe matchupSaints
−200Our fair odds+200
23.2Expected points16.8
+0.51Power rating−0.48
21.5Points / game26.2
12.8Allowed / game32.0
263Total yards / game367
4.4Yards / play5.0
156Passing yards / game278
4−0Season record1−3
9−1Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · NO chance
Our model fair66.7%33.3%
Kalshi57.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Vikings−20067%−13757.7%———
NONew Orleans Saints+20033%+11446.7%———
SpreadMIN by 6.5
MINMinnesota Vikings−6.5our margin————
NONew Orleans Saints+6.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 40.0
Over40.0our total————
Under40.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Vikings by 6.5 expected
Minnesota Vikings by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 34 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 31 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 28 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 27 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 24 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 23 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 21 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 20 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 17 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 15 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 14 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 13 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 12 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 11 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 9 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 8 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 7 points: 5%Minnesota Vikings by 6 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 3 points: 8%Minnesota Vikings by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%New Orleans Saints by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Saints by 2 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 3 points: 6%New Orleans Saints by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 5 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 6 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 7 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 9 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 10 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 11 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 15 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 16 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 19 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 20 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 40 points: <1%
← MIN wins byNO wins by →
Minnesota Vikings wins by 3 or more64%
Minnesota Vikings wins by 7 or more46%
Minnesota Vikings wins by 10 or more38%
Within 3 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

40.0 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 1%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 33.568%
Total over 40.547%
Total over 47.527%
Total from 34 to 4740%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
MINKyler Murray · last 3 games: 63% completions, 144 yds/game, 1 TD, 2 INTstarted
NOTyler Shough · last 3 games: 69% completions, 264 yds/game, 6 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·NO
Oct 4 vs MIA
last game
Oct 5 vs ATL
6 days
days of rest
5 days
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
MIN·NO
+0.51
rating (0 = average)
−0.48
21.5
points / game
26.2
12.8
points allowed / game
32.0
4−0
season record
1−3
2−0
home record
0−2
2−0
away record
1−1
W4
streak
L2
9−1
last 10
5−5
263
total yards / game
367
4.4
yards / play
5.0
156
passing yards / game
278
107
rushing yards / game
88
14.8
first downs / game
24.2
0.5
turnovers / game
2.0

Rating Trend

MIN · NO · 11 days
Minnesota VikingsNew Orleans Saints
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · NO 0−2
Nov 12, 2023at MINMIN 27 − 19
Oct 2, 2022at NOMIN 28 − 25

MIN · Last 10

9−1 · streak W9
Oct 4vs MIA15 − 10W
Sep 27at TB23 − 16W
Sep 20at CHI9 − 3W
Sep 13vs GB39 − 22W
Jan 4vs GB16 − 3W
Dec 25, 2025vs DET23 − 10W
Dec 21, 2025at NYG16 − 13W
Dec 14, 2025at DAL34 − 26W
Dec 7, 2025vs WSH31 − 0W
Nov 30, 2025at SEA0 − 26L

NO · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Oct 5vs ATL24 − 45L
Sep 27vs LV27 − 35L
Sep 20at BAL24 − 17W
Sep 13at DET30 − 31L
Jan 4at ATL17 − 19L
Dec 28, 2025at TEN34 − 26W
Dec 21, 2025vs NYJ29 − 6W
Dec 14, 2025vs CAR20 − 17W
Dec 7, 2025at TB24 − 20W
Nov 30, 2025at MIA17 − 21L