bayesRatings

Dolphins at Vikings

NFL · Sunday, Oct 4 · 3:05 PM CT · U.S. Bank Stadium · Final MIA 10 – MIN 15
← NFL / Oct 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA0010010
MIN363315
Team box
MIA·MIN
198
total yards
336
77
passing yards
213
121
rushing yards
123
8
first downs
20
2-9
third downs
8-18
1
turnovers
0
20:49
time of possession
39:11
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Malik WillisMIA9/178500
Kyler MurrayMIN27/3724700
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Ollie Gordon IIMIA91001
Aaron Jones Sr.MIN20940
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Malik WashingtonMIA5670
T.J. HockensonMIN131190

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +9
MIA +9
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 9 · MIA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 25%, MIN 75% · Updated Oct 4

Expected margin
MIN by 14.5
Expected score
MIN 25.7 – 11.2 MIA
Expected total
36.9
DolphinsThe matchupVikings
+299Our fair odds−299
11.2Expected points25.7
−0.53Power rating+0.43
12.0Points / game23.7
28.7Allowed / game13.7
291Total yards / game238
5.1Yards / play4.3
192Passing yards / game137
0−3Season record3−0
4−6Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · MIN chance
Our model fair25.1%74.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Dolphins+29925%————
MINMinnesota Vikings−29975%————
SpreadMIN by 14.5
MIAMiami Dolphins+14.5our margin————
MINMinnesota Vikings−14.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 36.9
Over36.9our total————
Under36.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Vikings by 14.5 expected
Miami Dolphins by 49 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 48 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 47 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 46 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 45 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 44 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 43 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 42 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 41 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 40 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 39 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 38 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 37 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 36 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 35 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 34 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 33 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 32 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 31 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 30 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 29 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 28 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 27 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 26 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 25 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 24 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 23 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 22 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 21 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 20 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 19 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 18 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 17 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 16 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 15 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 14 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 13 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 12 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 11 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 10 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 9 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 8 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 7 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 6 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 5 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 4 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 3 points: 4%Miami Dolphins by 2 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 1 point: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 3 points: 6%Minnesota Vikings by 4 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 5 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 6 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 7 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 9 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 10 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 11 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 12 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 13 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 14 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 17 points: 5%Minnesota Vikings by 18 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 20 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 21 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 22 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 23 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 24 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 25 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 26 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 28 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 30 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 31 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 32 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 34 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 35 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 36 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 37 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 38 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 40 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 41 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 42 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 46 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 47 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 48 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 49 points: <1%
← MIA wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Vikings wins by 3 or more81%
Minnesota Vikings wins by 7 or more67%
Minnesota Vikings wins by 10 or more59%
Within 3 points either way16%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

36.9 expected
4 points: <1%5 points: <1%6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: 1%14 points: <1%15 points: 1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 2%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 3%27 points: 3%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 3%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 1%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: <1%63 points: <1%64 points: <1%65 points: <1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 29.571%
Total over 36.550%
Total over 43.529%
Total from 30 to 4342%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
MIAMalik Willis · last 3 games: 57% completions, 209 yds/game, 1 TD, 2 INTstarted
MINKyler Murray · last 3 games: 63% completions, 135 yds/game, 1 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·MIN
Sep 27 vs KC
last game
Sep 27 at TB
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
MIA·MIN
−0.53
rating (0 = average)
+0.43
12.0
points / game
23.7
28.7
points allowed / game
13.7
0−3
season record
3−0
0−1
home record
1−0
0−2
away record
2−0
L3
streak
W3
4−6
last 10
8−2
291
total yards / game
238
5.1
yards / play
4.3
192
passing yards / game
137
98
rushing yards / game
101
15.0
first downs / game
13.0
1.3
turnovers / game
0.7

Rating Trend

MIA · MIN · 8 days
Miami DolphinsMinnesota Vikings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · MIN 1−0
Oct 16, 2022at MIAMIN 24 − 16

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Sep 27vs KC10 − 24L
Sep 20at SF13 − 35L
Sep 13at LV13 − 27L
Jan 4at NE10 − 38L
Dec 28, 2025vs TB20 − 17W
Dec 21, 2025vs CIN21 − 45L
Dec 15, 2025at PIT15 − 28L
Dec 7, 2025at NYJ34 − 10W
Nov 30, 2025vs NO21 − 17W
Nov 16, 2025vs WSH16 − 13W

MIN · Last 10

8−2 · streak W8
Sep 27at TB23 − 16W
Sep 20at CHI9 − 3W
Sep 13vs GB39 − 22W
Jan 4vs GB16 − 3W
Dec 25, 2025vs DET23 − 10W
Dec 21, 2025at NYG16 − 13W
Dec 14, 2025at DAL34 − 26W
Dec 7, 2025vs WSH31 − 0W
Nov 30, 2025at SEA0 − 26L
Nov 23, 2025at GB6 − 23L