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Chiefs at Dolphins

NFL · Sunday, Sep 27 · 12:00 PM CT · Hard Rock Stadium · Final KC 24 – MIA 10
← NFL / Sep 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
KC7701024
MIA703010
Team box
KC·MIA
334
total yards
329
246
passing yards
210
88
rushing yards
119
18
first downs
19
3-7
third downs
8-16
1
turnovers
2
25:39
time of possession
34:21
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Patrick MahomesKC20/2424621
Malik WillisMIA20/3621001
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Kenneth Walker IIIKC18701
Malik WillisMIA9560
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Rashee RiceKC7880
Chris BellMIA4670

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +14
KC +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 0 · KC 14lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 59%, MIA 41% · Updated Sep 27

Expected margin
KC by 8.5
Expected score
KC 25.8 – 17.2 MIA
Expected total
43.0
ChiefsThe matchupDolphins
−145Our fair odds+145
25.8Expected points17.2
+0.15Power rating−0.44
32.0Points / game13.0
20.0Allowed / game31.0
458Total yards / game272
6.3Yards / play5.2
272Passing yards / game184
2−0Season record0−2
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · MIA chance
Our model fair59.2%40.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Chiefs−14559%————
MIAMiami Dolphins+14541%————
SpreadKC by 8.5
KCKansas City Chiefs−8.5our margin————
MIAMiami Dolphins+8.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 43.0
Over43.0our total————
Under43.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Kansas City Chiefs by 8.5 expected
Kansas City Chiefs by 40 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 39 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 38 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 37 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 36 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 35 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 34 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 33 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 32 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 31 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 30 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 29 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 28 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 27 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 26 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 25 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 24 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 23 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 22 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 21 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 20 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 19 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 18 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 17 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 16 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 15 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 14 points: 5%Kansas City Chiefs by 13 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 12 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 11 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 10 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 9 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 8 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 7 points: 5%Kansas City Chiefs by 6 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 5 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 4 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 3 points: 8%Kansas City Chiefs by 2 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Miami Dolphins by 1 point: 1%Miami Dolphins by 2 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 3 points: 5%Miami Dolphins by 4 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 5 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 6 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 7 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 8 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 9 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 10 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 11 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 12 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 13 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 14 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 15 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 16 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 17 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 18 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 19 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 20 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 21 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 22 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 23 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 24 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 25 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 26 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 27 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 28 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 29 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 30 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 31 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 32 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 33 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 34 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 35 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 36 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 37 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 38 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 39 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 40 points: <1%
← KC wins byMIA wins by →
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 3 or more69%
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 7 or more53%
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 10 or more45%
Within 3 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

43.0 expected
9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 36.567%
Total over 43.546%
Total over 50.528%
Total from 37 to 5039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
KCPatrick Mahomes · last 3 games: 62% completions, 252 yds/game, 5 TD, 2 INTstarted
MIAMalik Willis · last 3 games: 66% completions, 235 yds/game, 2 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·MIA
Sep 20 vs IND
last game
Sep 20 at SF
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
KC·MIA
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
−0.44
32.0
points / game
13.0
20.0
points allowed / game
31.0
2−0
season record
0−2
2−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−2
W2
streak
L2
3−7
last 10
5−5
458
total yards / game
272
6.3
yards / play
5.2
272
passing yards / game
184
186
rushing yards / game
88
24.0
first downs / game
13.0
0.5
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

KC · MIA · 5 days
Kansas City ChiefsMiami Dolphins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · MIA 0−2
Jan 13, 2024at KCKC 26 − 7post
Nov 5, 2023at KCKC 21 − 14

KC · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Sep 20vs IND33 − 30W
Sep 14vs DEN31 − 10W
Jan 4at LV12 − 14L
Dec 25, 2025vs DEN13 − 20L
Dec 21, 2025at TEN9 − 26L
Dec 14, 2025vs LAC13 − 16L
Dec 7, 2025vs HOU10 − 20L
Nov 27, 2025at DAL28 − 31L
Nov 23, 2025vs IND23 − 20W
Nov 16, 2025at DEN19 − 22L

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Sep 20at SF13 − 35L
Sep 13at LV13 − 27L
Jan 4at NE10 − 38L
Dec 28, 2025vs TB20 − 17W
Dec 21, 2025vs CIN21 − 45L
Dec 15, 2025at PIT15 − 28L
Dec 7, 2025at NYJ34 − 10W
Nov 30, 2025vs NO21 − 17W
Nov 16, 2025vs WSH16 − 13W
Nov 9, 2025vs BUF30 − 13W